Endgame/near-endgame thoughts

[chancellor]

My 11-team AL only 5x5 auction, with OBP and SLG replacing BA and HR (pitching standard) will have our virtual auction this Sunday. Due to an ill-conceived effort to go for the crown last year, my keeper list is horrifically bad, so I'm likely in rebuild mode. Based on the number of hitters needed and rough rankings, here's some players I think will be available near the endgame or in the endgame. I'd like the Pen's feedback on opportunity for value over a 3-year window, as that's the max we can keep players in our league.

Hitters:

Aaron Hicks
Jake Fraley
JP Crawford
Rowdy Tellez
Manuel Margot
Myles Straw
Jeimer Candelario
Cristin Stewart
Jake Bauers

Pitchers:

Spencer Turnbull
Framber Valdez
Matt Andriese
Justin Dunn
Alec Mills
Michael Fulmer
Michael Kopech
Ryan Heisley
Austin Adams
Hunter Harvey

[Sour Masher]

I like Hicks, Fraley, Turnbull, and Kopech. Kopech has no value this year, but has the most talent of the pitchers. Turnbull has big upside too. Hicks really seems like an outlier here in terms of hitting talent. The injuries suppress his value, but I think you have to take him down at this level. Fraley has the speed and power combo I love, moderate as it may be.

[GwynnInTheHall]

My 11-team AL only 5x5 auction, with OBP and SLG replacing BA and HR (pitching standard) will have our virtual auction this Sunday. Due to an ill-conceived effort to go for the crown last year, my keeper list is horrifically bad, so I'm likely in rebuild mode. Based on the number of hitters needed and rough rankings, here's some players I think will be available near the endgame or in the endgame. I'd like the Pen's feedback on opportunity for value over a 3-year window, as that's the max we can keep players in our league.

Hitters:

Aaron Hicks
Jake Fraley
JP Crawford
Rowdy Tellez
Manuel Margot
Myles Straw
Jeimer Candelario
Cristin Stewart
Jake Bauers

Pitchers:

Spencer Turnbull
Framber Valdez
Matt Andriese
Justin Dunn
Alec Mills
Michael Fulmer
Michael Kopech
Ryan Heisley
Austin Adams
Hunter Harvey

Three year Window? Hicks, Kopech. Harvey (closer) Is Cordero still avail? I like him as well, DH is a thing right?

[Hornsby]

Here are some targets as I see it...

Hitters:

Aaron Hicks
Jake Fraley
Manuel Margot
Myles Straw
Jeimer Candelario
Jake Bauers

Pitchers:

Spencer Turnbull
Framber Valdez
Matt Andriese
Justin Dunn
Alec Mills
Michael Fulmer
Michael Kopech
Ryan Heisley
Austin Adams
Hunter Harvey


I think that you did a good job in identifying potential helps...Kopech is the stud, and you'll never get him cheaper. Fulmer is an obvious boom or bust....he's shown that he's can pitch in the bigs, it's if his arm can allow him to do so. Harvey could also be a post injury surprise.

Hitter I like, Margot, Fraley, and Bauers are the cream for me...the others I left on the list can help, but have no real upside, IMO.

[chancellor]

Three year Window? Hicks, Kopech. Harvey (closer) Is Cordero still avail? I like him as well, DH is a thing right?

Cordero was sent to the alternate camp so I can’t take him until the reserves.

[chancellor]

Thanks to all for the help - auction went a bit better than I'd hoped, but was strange. After the first two rounds of mostly high-priced talent was bought, a lot of owners shelled up and there were values everywhere. I landed Gallo, LGurriel, and KDavis at figures much lower than I thought they'd go for, and got Verlander at a decent price. My main disaster/challenge was the MI slots, where I had no keepers and the big name guys went for huge dollars. But due to the mid-round passive bidding, five owners had a ton of cash at the end so while technically in the "endgame", they were dropping much more than I had available for some on the list. Margot went for 14, Fraley for 12, and Hicks for 8. But I did land Severino and MFulmer in the endgame.

But the first two reserve rounds were a bonanza. Background -I'd traded up for the reserve pick that ended up being #6 overall, and had #7 on my own. The guy who traded me his #6 overall pick last year is our strongest player, along with our commish. They're also both good friends of mine. My one OF keeper this year - Mallex Smith - is on an expiring contract. I have Vlad for two more years, but he'll likely only be 1B eligible next year. WFranco and JAdell were kept. The commish had the first pick and lives in Ontario; he's also the one who kept WFranco and he had good keeper hitting but all his good pitching expires this year. So I have him booked for Pearson. The other four guys in front of me are pretty much wild cards - especially the one immediately in front of me, but I thought some combination of Kelenic, Mize, Marsh, Vaughn, and Manning would go. So I figured I'd have a chance at two of Matt Manning, James Karinchak, Franchy Cordero, and Andrew Vaughn. I know Vaughn's a monster talent, but with Vlad at 1B, I'm more interested in OF and P. So, the first round of the reserves begins, and it goes:

Pearson
Mize
Manning
Karinchak

So, with one pick before mine, I'm happy - I figure Kelenic is off the board next, but that leaves me Marsh and Vaughn. Instead, the next pick is....Aaron Civale.

There's a brief pause, and then look on my friend's face who traded me #6 on Zoom is priceless. And I got a screenshot. And I got Kelenic. And Marsh.

That was worth an extra evening beer.

[Hornsby]

Thanks to all for the help - auction went a bit better than I'd hoped, but was strange. After the first two rounds of mostly high-priced talent was bought, a lot of owners shelled up and there were values everywhere. I landed Gallo, LGurriel, and KDavis at figures much lower than I thought they'd go for, and got Verlander at a decent price. My main disaster/challenge was the MI slots, where I had no keepers and the big name guys went for huge dollars. But due to the mid-round passive bidding, five owners had a ton of cash at the end so while technically in the "endgame", they were dropping much more than I had available for some on the list. Margot went for 14, Fraley for 12, and Hicks for 8. But I did land Severino and MFulmer in the endgame.

But the first two reserve rounds were a bonanza. Background -I'd traded up for the reserve pick that ended up being #6 overall, and had #7 on my own. The guy who traded me his #6 overall pick last year is our strongest player, along with our commish. They're also both good friends of mine. My one OF keeper this year - Mallex Smith - is on an expiring contract. I have Vlad for two more years, but he'll likely only be 1B eligible next year. WFranco and JAdell were kept. The commish had the first pick and lives in Ontario; he's also the one who kept WFranco and he had good keeper hitting but all his good pitching expires this year. So I have him booked for Pearson. The other four guys in front of me are pretty much wild cards - especially the one immediately in front of me, but I thought some combination of Kelenic, Mize, Marsh, Vaughn, and Manning would go. So I figured I'd have a chance at two of Matt Manning, James Karinchak, Franchy Cordero, and Andrew Vaughn. I know Vaughn's a monster talent, but with Vlad at 1B, I'm more interested in OF and P. So, the first round of the reserves begins, and it goes:

Pearson
Mize
Manning
Karinchak

So, with one pick before mine, I'm happy - I figure Kelenic is off the board next, but that leaves me Marsh and Vaughn. Instead, the next pick is....Aaron Civale.

There's a brief pause, and then look on my friend's face who traded me #6 on Zoom is priceless. And I got a screenshot. And I got Kelenic. And Marsh.

That was worth an extra evening beer.

Good for you! As a fellow Kelenic and Marsh owner, I approve! Never, Never, Never take a pitcher that high, IMO...especially when one of the has had recent shoulder issues.

[Sour Masher]

Great gets. If I traded you 6 I'd be livid. My only quibble is I'd have taken Vaughn with that second pick over Marsh, even in your situation. I have Marsh and would gladly trade him for Vaughn. I think Vaughn has more trade value, so even if you did not want to keep him, that would have been my pick.

[Ken]

Great gets. If I traded you 6 I'd be livid. My only quibble is I'd have taken Vaughn with that second pick over Marsh, even in your situation. I have Marsh and would gladly trade him for Vaughn. I think Vaughn has more trade value, so even if you did not want to keep him, that would have been my pick.

I agree, and I don't think it's particularly close. I was surprised to see Marsh's name listed with the rest above. He's a good prospect but he doesn't have close to the upside that many of the rest do. Seems like while laughing at the Civale overdraft Marsh was a "similar" overdraft (although not to the same extent).

Why Marsh over Vaughn (or several others)?

[umjewman]

I still haven't seen Endgame, so I can't offer a legitimate opinion. I'm really behind on MCU movies and have to take the time to catch up.

[heyelander]

I still haven't seen Endgame, so I can't offer a legitimate opinion. I'm really behind on MCU movies and have to take the time to catch up.

Endgame was fantastic. Really satisfying "resolution" to so many things.

[chancellor]

I agree, and I don't think it's particularly close. I was surprised to see Marsh's name listed with the rest above. He's a good prospect but he doesn't have close to the upside that many of the rest do. Seems like while laughing at the Civale overdraft Marsh was a "similar" overdraft (although not to the same extent).

Why Marsh over Vaughn (or several others)?

In our league, once a player has a PA or a pitching appearance, their three-year clock starts. If they're in the minors, you can keep them, but you have to use a regular roster spot to do so; we have no minor league roster. The worst case scenario in our league is Vaughn gets a handful of ABs this year, but Encarnacion looks like he has gas in the tank, and the White Sox exercise their $12 mil option for next year, and Vaughn gets sent back to the minors for 2021. Expected case is Vaughn still spends a lot of 2021 in the minors.

With Vlad now locked in at 1B, that would fill my 1B and CI next year. And make me burn a roster spot on a guy who's potentially two years away.

I think Marsh helps sooner, and I don't see Goodwin holding him back. 2022 is dicier for Marsh since that's when Adell is theoretically ready, and that's JUp's last contract year.

[Ken]

In our league, once a player has a PA or a pitching appearance, their three-year clock starts. If they're in the minors, you can keep them, but you have to use a regular roster spot to do so; we have no minor league roster.

Ah, gotcha, that makes a difference.

I think Marsh helps sooner, and I don't see Goodwin holding him back. 2022 is dicier for Marsh since that's when Adell is theoretically ready, and that's JUp's last contract year.

2022 is when Adell is ready? Where are you seeing that, it seems off. Prior to the season being delayed, there was a lot of talk of him coming up this year actually, I don't see them waiting until 2022.

[chancellor]

2022 is when Adell is ready? Where are you seeing that, it seems off. Prior to the season being delayed, there was a lot of talk of him coming up this year actually, I don't see them waiting until 2022.

I saw the same chatter, but he was simply overpowered in AAA ball in '19. Admittedly only 131 PA's, but no HRs, only 1 SB, .321/.355 OBP/SLG, and his BB:K rate doubled to the worse in AAA ball versus his lower levels. Maddon's interviews with the Orange County Register and LA Times this June both stated Adell had a lot to work on.

If he'd had a full or most of a minor league season this year, I could see him starting in '21, but the Angels have no reason to rush him now. He'll be up in '21, but doubtful he'll start with the bigs. Between Maddon's comments, and the Angels likely pulling a Kris Bryant on his service time, I just don't see him coming full time until 2022. Marsh isn't as high ceiling, so I doubt they'll screw with him much.

I could be wrong - to your point, Angels management was hyping him something big in May. Maddon had his interviews shortly after. Given Maddon's contract, I think he's wearing the pants in the Angels family right now.

[Ken]

I saw the same chatter, but he was simply overpowered in AAA ball in '19. Admittedly only 131 PA's, but no HRs, only 1 SB, .321/.355 OBP/SLG, and his BB:K rate doubled to the worse in AAA ball versus his lower levels. Maddon's interviews with the Orange County Register and LA Times this June both stated Adell had a lot to work on.

If he'd had a full or most of a minor league season this year, I could see him starting in '21, but the Angels have no reason to rush him now. He'll be up in '21, but doubtful he'll start with the bigs. Between Maddon's comments, and the Angels likely pulling a Kris Bryant on his service time, I just don't see him coming full time until 2022. Marsh isn't as high ceiling, so I doubt they'll screw with him much.

I could be wrong - to your point, Angels management was hyping him something big in May. Maddon had his interviews shortly after. Given Maddon's contract, I think he's wearing the pants in the Angels family right now.

Not really following the logic here - Adell is undoubtedly ahead of Marsh in development. Marsh has not reached AAA, and obviously Adell is the more heralded prospect. While I do see your concerns about Maddon using vets, that doesn't push Marsh past Adell on the development timeline.