Rank the TJ guys

[Sour Masher]

With many leagues adding IL spots in anticipation of COVID cases, I wonder how that might affect the values of the three big TJ guys in keeper leagues. If you had a league with a suddenly more generous allotment of IL spots, and you were inclined to gamble of one of the big three for 2021 and beyond, who would it be? I doubt I will land any of them, but I'm curious how folks rank them long term, and I really don't know myself. Is there enough difference between them that you'd throw an extra buck at one over the others?

I guess I'd rank Sale last, even though he was the best, simply because of age and he looks like he is one missed meal away from being a skeleton. Severino's whole shoulder deal scares me the most, but he showed more than Thor, and is actually a bit younger. It is a coin flip, but I default to bigger and stronger recovering from injury so, my ranking would be:

1. Thor
2. Severino
3. Sale

[chancellor]

I'd go in the inverse order you had them - Sale/Severino/Thor. Logic:

My view is any of these I'd stash and do a short term play (1-2 years). I agree on Sale being cadaverous, and his pitching motion reminds me of Mark Gubicza, so his arm is likely to blow up again at some point. But he knows what to do with dominant stuff, and healthy for a couple years will most likely be a legit #1. I also like Severino (see my writeup on him before his arm blew up), but he never reached the Sale level, and as you noted, he's had other arm/oblique stuff going on. But if healthy - and with that bullpen and hitters behind him - he could put up very good ratios and Ks and excellent win numbers.

Thor didn't ever leverage his awesome stuff with similar great numbers. Yeah, he's a physical speciman, but even when healthy, he was the one guy I always disagreed with Paul Sporer on.

[Sour Masher]

I'd go in the inverse order you had them - Sale/Severino/Thor. Logic:

My view is any of these I'd stash and do a short term play (1-2 years). I agree on Sale being cadaverous, and his pitching motion reminds me of Mark Gubicza, so his arm is likely to blow up again at some point. But he knows what to do with dominant stuff, and healthy for a couple years will most likely be a legit #1. I also like Severino (see my writeup on him before his arm blew up), but he never reached the Sale level, and as you noted, he's had other arm/oblique stuff going on. But if healthy - and with that bullpen and hitters behind him - he could put up very good ratios and Ks and excellent win numbers.

Thor didn't ever leverage his awesome stuff with similar great numbers. Yeah, he's a physical speciman, but even when healthy, he was the one guy I always disagreed with Paul Sporer on.

Ha, I'm easily swayed on this. I almost put them in your order. I agree that Thor has proven the least talented of the trio. I ranked him first solely based on an uninformed bias that big and strong will lead to the quickest and most certain recovery. Your ranking is clearly the way they should be ranked based on past performance and talent. And I can see that being the way to go, because, if we assume all of them are at least a bit diminished when they get back, you'd want 90% of the best one. My ranking was based on my unscientific sense of who is most to least likely to recover.

[Sour Masher]

Is it worth anything at all that Severino had his TJ a month before Sale and Thor? IDK, since guys recover at different rates, and one month is within the margin of difference.

[chancellor]

Is it worth anything at all that Severino had his TJ a month before Sale and Thor? IDK, since guys recover at different rates, and one month is within the margin of difference.

Not to me. That's within the normal range of recovery.

[Sour Masher]

Related question that another thread on landing Sale got me thinking on--what prices would you pay for these guys?

[mgwiz22]

You can never tell how a pitcher is going to react to tj surgery.

[Don Quixote]

You can never tell how a pitcher is going to react to tj surgery.

Or any other surgery. Or anything at all.

Trying to predict pitching with any accuracy is about as useful as a 2020 planner.

[chancellor]

Related question that another thread on landing Sale got me thinking on--what prices would you pay for these guys?

For me, it depends. I'd dump $5 into one of them if I had a competitive team and were looking for a trade chip, fully expecting to get outbid. If I were rebuilding (as I am in my AL only), I may go as high as 10 for Sale.

[Sour Masher]

A dude I forgot about is Jameson Taillon. He isn't as good as the rest, but he had his surgery back in August, so should be 100% recovered and ready for the start of 2021. Where does he rank on this list if considering, say the 3 year period from 2021-2023, with 2021 weighted 50%?

[Sour Masher]

Also forgot Chris Archer. His surgery has a pretty dismal success rate, but he, like Taillon, could be ready to start 2021. Where does he rank, if you are primarily focused on 2021, but with some focus on 2022 as well. Between the two Pirate arms, which would you waste a couple of bucks on this year to stash away?

My league decided to add 3 IL spots this year for COVID fears. I hope it is more than are needed, and I want to snag an arm, as all of mine are expiring after this year. It is a glorious set though--Cole, Verlander, Morton, Paxton. Going from those four to none at all will sting. I'm hoping to get some healthy finds this year, but want to take a chance or one or two of these hurt guys, although knowing me, I'm sure to trade them if anyone wants to give me anything good to help me win this year.

[chancellor]

I'd take Taillon way before Archer. There's a pretty big gap for me between the top three you noted and Taillon and an even bigger gap from Taillon to Archer.

[Sour Masher]

I'd take Taillon way before Archer. There's a pretty big gap for me between the top three you noted and Taillon and an even bigger gap from Taillon to Archer.

Yeah, but I also expect the big three to go for a lot more in my league. Taillon and Archer I could probably get for $1 or $2 depending on if I toss them out or bid on someone else's toss. For me going for a title, it probably makes sense to do that rather than spend $15 on a guy not helping me this year...of course, they could help me if I deal them, but I will have to sit on them for awhile, I think.

[chancellor]

Yeah, but I also expect the big three to go for a lot more in my league. Taillon and Archer I could probably get for $1 or $2 depending on if I toss them out or bid on someone else's toss. For me going for a title, it probably makes sense to do that rather than spend $15 on a guy not helping me this year...of course, they could help me if I deal them, but I will have to sit on them for awhile, I think.

I'd drop a buck or two on Taillon. I would not waste the money nor roster spot on Archer.

[Hornsby]

Yeah, but I also expect the big three to go for a lot more in my league. Taillon and Archer I could probably get for $1 or $2 depending on if I toss them out or bid on someone else's toss. For me going for a title, it probably makes sense to do that rather than spend $15 on a guy not helping me this year...of course, they could help me if I deal them, but I will have to sit on them for awhile, I think.

What Chance said, let someone else take the risk on Archer...he was pretty bad even when he was healthy.