Lockdown Dynasty - Big Tymers

[Big Tymer]

Ok, you've seen several posts now but same league (20 team dynasty startup, 5x5, OBP & Saves+Holds).

I got the 15th pick in the KDS and ended up with the 15th pick. Not awesome but my strength has always been in the rebuild and prospects so I decided early on that would be my focus:

ROUNDS 1-2: Wanted young veterans and grabbed 2 23-years olds in Devers and Albies

ROUNDS 3+ Top prospects

MLB Players
C: Roberto Perez
1B: Ryan O'Hearn
2B: Ozzie Albies
3B: Rafael Devers
SS: J.P. Crawford
MI: Luis Rengifo
CI: Jaimer Candelario
OF: Nick Senzel
OF: Bradley Zimmer
OF: Tyler Naquin
OF: Ryan McBroom
OF: Austin Slater
UT: Jose Osuna
UT: Austin Allen

P: Tony Gonsolin
P: Bryse Wilson
P: Patrick Sandoval
P: Aaron Bummer
P: Jose Castillo
P: Kenyan Middleton
P: Peter Fairbanks
P: Michael Feliz
P: John Brebbia

RES: Luis Severino (TJ)
RES: Corbin Martin (TJ)
RES: David Robertson (TJ)
RES: Carlos Estevez
RES: Dustin Fowler (1 option left)
RES: Kyle Freeland
RES: Carson Fulmer

MINOR LEAGUES: This is clearly where I invested and where my next 5 years will be make or break
Jarred Kelenic
Mackenize Gore
C.J. Abrams
Alec Bohm
Alex Kirilloff
Corbin Carroll
Jazz Chisholm
Ronny Mauricio
Brandon Marsh
Luis Matos
Luis Rodriguez
Nick Lodolo
Ian Anderson
Michael Toglia
Francisco Alvarez
Adael Amador
Liover Peguero
Braden Shewmake
Travis Swaggerty
John Torres
William Contreras
Braxton Garrett
Quinn Priester
Jordan Balazovic
Wildred Patino

I expect to finish near last TY and next year thus accumulating more prospect assets while graduating others. Key will be hitting on prospects while also hitting on my late MLB picks and any FAAB picks. Suspect 2022 is first year to consider top-half finish but this is the kind of team I like and at the end of the day this is about having fun and to me this is a fun team to work with.

[Teenwolf]

When Keith started the draft, I told him I didn't have any real strategy, so I'd probably just copy whatever you were doing. That said, I'm pretty glad I didn't follow your immediate rebuild strategy.... I definitely think more major league building blocks were needed to field a good team anytime soon. I guess if the trade market heavily values top 100 prospects you could balance things out a bit more with some major league producers. Trading will clearly be the key. I don't think it's possible to play it like Out Of The Park style, grab all the high end prospects, and see which ones are studs 3-4 years later. But you're out to prove me wrong. In any case, being in a position with many highly coveted prospects isn't a bad thing, and perhaps if a few hit big, you could deal off 1-2 of the studs to fill out the current lack of depth.

Too many catcher prospects for this format. 20 team, 1 catcher slot. Unless catchers become top 5 in the league, they aren't worth the farm slots and development time. I'm not saying prospect catchers are worthless, but they definitely carry less value than other prospects in my opinion. Perhaps others will disagree and they'll make fine trade chips. I drafted a couple myself (Daulton Varsho and Ryan Jeffers), thinking they're tested at AA with enough bat to have a chance at top 5 at the position. Varsho in the 8th round was a major overdraft for me, but I will explain my logic in my own team summary thread.

Generally quite a well-selected group of farm guys. If you're going to go with this strategy, you need to have a very strong knowledge of farm players. So you're going with your strength, I just question how long it could take to turn over a full roster. Should be a a fun building project.

[harmon]

.....

[gcstomp]

Bigtymer and rob i think it was threw the wrench in the works, with the focus on prospects. I mean not just them, w franco went 12th in the 1st, and I like that move as you gotta have the toys you reeally want in a keep forever.

Rattled me as I had shiny toys I wanted but I also wanted to play in the sandbox of the standings this year and next and also the 5 yr+. It caused many of us to start picking up prospects maybe a little earlier than we liked, which left the owners who were all in this year at a big advantage as there were older guys getting undervalued. I hope when those teams are spent that the owners are sticky enough to see this project through year 10. Man I hate this team BigTymer. Not because I think it sucks, but because I think you entered a cheat code that will be shooting an overweight payoff in 3 years. 20 teams, we should each average 5 of the top 100 prospects. This team broke that average biggie time.

[frae]

I love the prospects and kind of wish I had the guts to do it. It was also funny that you and Rob were back to back in the draft and probably the two most overtly going for the future as you sniped each other.

I know you will keep working to improve the major league roster and if you get enough of the prospects to hit this could come together in a way where you have a group of anchors for 10 years that none of us can compete with. Obviously lots of risk, but lots of reward.

[wombat104]

I was surprised with the all-in prospect approach as it seems like you were putting yourself at a disadvantage and creating more risk. Hard to argue with the minors you did take as your focused on the prospects that have high ceilings, gotta have a few of them hit that. I think it will be tough to build up the pitching and I was surprised you went after some setup guys rather early. The important thing is you had a thought out strategy and executed it. Knowing you from MSGL there is no doubt you can build a contender given your experience and your prospect knowledge.

[Ken]

I was surprised with the all-in prospect approach as it seems like you were putting yourself at a disadvantage and creating more risk.

That's my assessment as well. I applaud the balls it took to tank year 1, but I don't see how it can work.

Yes, this team has the best farm, but even the best prospects fail often. So the best farm moves you from a 70% failure rate on prospects to what, 50%? If I was going for the all-2022 team I'd be buying up the youngest mlb players and the top end of the minors, grab all the AA talent, not low minors. Or, even buy mlb talent to trade for prospects to contenders.

I don't personally think going all youth works in this format, but we shall see!!

[Big Tymer]

Thanks all. Don't disagree with anyone's assessment. Had I to do it over again I'd follow the same strategy but probably bypass the top 30 prospects to accrue several more proven players. But this is the first time I've ever gotten to do a startup (I came into RJEL, 12TO and MSGL midstream) so really wanted to construct the team around "my guys". There were many times in the early rounds I was 100% planning to bypass the prospect for a ~25 yr old hitter or pitcher but kept getting sniped and I wasn't going to force it. I like to build my teams with hitters and largely multi-category, up the middle hitters. A SS prospect has SO many paths to relevance as that glove can play in a lot of spots. Same with a good hit tool. So I tried to load up on guys that I "felt" had a better chance to succeed. If my prospects don't hit then its on me and I am fine with that.

For pitching, pitchers get hurt. We don't know when but they will. And a good pitcher last year might suck TY. So much is based on contextual and "in the head" elements that predicting the next good pitcher is folly. So I didn't want to invest any capital on those kinds of assets. Gore to me is as bullet proof as they come for a prospect but even with him I was wary to pull the trigger. I really liked filling 3 active SP slots with 3 top-100 prospects to essentially give myself 28 prospects. Not sure if Gonsolin/Wilson/Martin will pan out but hopefully one does. I also liked building a staff largely around NL starters as in today's game without a DH that is an advantange. TBD though if it goes away.

At the end of the day this team will work if (a) I hit on my hitting prospects at a 60+ % clip, (b) I work the waiver wire well, (c) I can get 4-5 good SPs from the group and (d) my theory that prospects will hold great value 3 years from now holds true. I also saw the rules as an incentive to tank since the worst teams get the top picks in both the minor league draft, and Rule 5 while also gaining extra picks in the minor league draft. So if you follow that out, by tanking 2-3 years I can get a lot more talent than you see here while graduating talent to the active roster and seeing everyone else's team age.

I can be very patient in a rebuild as others can attest so the endgame is having a young, badass team that dominates in years to come. If you ain't first you're last!!

[Big Tymer]

And regarding catching and setup guys since those evolved into deliberate strategies. For catchers, there was value as Roberto Perez was really good LY and I think is peaking late. Maybe I flip him, maybe I don't but in only leagues it is not uncommon for me to roster 2 catchers as active for the counting stats. OBP leagues make that easier. For Austin Allen, I trust OAK and they targeted him from SD. I also think he's not really a catcher but a high OBP, decent power source they will occasionally have catch. Then Francisco Alvarez is very highly regarded for his bat. If he catches, even better. Finally, what I've read makes it seem as though William Contreras could be better than his brother so that has value. Likely the Braves trade him and so do I.

For setup men, in a league this deep I believe only 5 SPs will be needed (maybe 6 if matchups are favorable that week). Thus, if my plan is to eventually roster 7-9 SPs to stream then I will need a lot of MR arms to accrue Saves & Holds and also manage ratios. I fully expect to churn my MRs over time so the group I grabbed will not be the group I keep long term but rather hopefully a few of them pan out.

[Ken]

For pitching, pitchers get hurt. We don't know when but they will. And a good pitcher last year might suck TY. So much is based on contextual and "in the head" elements that predicting the next good pitcher is folly.

No doubt true that pitchers are higher risk, but the people on this site know that too, and they overcount it. It's being double counted, specifically. The rankings and projections already take into account the additional risk when they are making their list and they have pushed pitchers down, and this site pushes them much further down for that same risk. IMO that's incorrect. And when everyone is doing that, the best thing to do is the opposite, not join the crowd.

Obviously you don't want to go crazy with it, but last I checked half the categories are pitching, so if you can win that with ease by taking the pitchers everyone else is passing, and only sacrifice a little on the hitting side (which again, it doesn't cost much in hitters because pitchers are being so badly assessed).

I wonder if anyone has ever done hard numbers on pitching vs hitting value.

[Ken]

For catchers, there was value as Roberto Perez was really good LY and I think is peaking late. Maybe I flip him, maybe I don't

Short benches and very few teams have multiple catchers. So replacement value relative to the players rostered is very high. I can't imagine flipping something for Perez when there are equally good players available in FAAB

[Big Tymer]

In my experience with Only leagues there will not be rosterable hitters on the wire so a catcher who is on base at a .320 clip with 20 HRs and 60 RBIs will have value.

And then with pitching agree 100% that you need them but there is a significantly higher risk of attrition with them due to injury and just overall development. So if one is taking a rebuild approach it doesn’t make sense to have a lot of pitchers. IMO, in a few years when my hitters develop I will then look to trade for 30 year old pitchers who are established and maybe even post peak as I believe they will be cheaper to acquire.

[KnuckleBalls]

Well, we certainly took the Opposite approach. I applaud your Big Tyme Kahonas for going all in on the future. It will be fun to see how the young teams look in 3-4 years. Fun for you that is. That's about when my fun ends.

[Ken]

In my experience with Only leagues there will not be rosterable hitters on the wire so a catcher who is on base at a .320 clip with 20 HRs and 60 RBIs will have value.

That’s my experience with 2C only leagues as well. But this league is 1C and we just have 7 bench spots so not many backup catchers. If you look at free agents there are several catchers who will put up close to if not equivalent stars to Perez. Not a bad catcher certainly but replacement level is relatively high due to the format.

And then with pitching agree 100% that you need them but there is a significantly higher risk of attrition with them due to injury and just overall development. So if one is taking a rebuild approach it doesn’t make sense to have a lot of pitchers. IMO, in a few years when my hitters develop I will then look to trade for 30 year old pitchers who are established and maybe even post peak as I believe they will be cheaper to acquire.

To restate though, prospect evaluators take the additional risk into account already though. So discounting them a 2nd time due to the same risk doesnt make sense to me. I do understand the higher risk but once you get to the point where a SP is 30-50 past his projected spot you are double counting risk IMO.

[Teenwolf]

In my experience with Only leagues there will not be rosterable hitters on the wire so a catcher who is on base at a .320 clip with 20 HRs and 60 RBIs will have value.

And then with pitching agree 100% that you need them but there is a significantly higher risk of attrition with them due to injury and just overall development. So if one is taking a rebuild approach it doesn’t make sense to have a lot of pitchers. IMO, in a few years when my hitters develop I will then look to trade for 30 year old pitchers who are established and maybe even post peak as I believe they will be cheaper to acquire.

First point about catchers. Elite or even above average hitting catchers will still hold value. But the threshold for becoming fantasy relevant in this format is much higher than any other position. Additionally, catchers only starting 70-85% of their games means their value above replacement is automatically lower as well. Even if they're really good when they're playing, the cap on playing time hinders their ceiling. This is why useful catchers are still available for free right now, after drafting 1100 players. I picked up R. Chirinos in the final round, and he's exactly what you describe. .320+ OBP with 20/60. Also, my hesitance about R. Perez is that yes, he hit 24 HR with the 2019-jumpy-ball... but they only came with 9 doubles. Seems likely his HR decline. Trade value is determined by owners though, and if a catcher is all over the top 100 lists, some owners might buy into hype.

Second point about pitchers. I read something about high-end SP returning more value than high-end offense year-over-year within the last couple of years. It seemed counter-intuitive, as pitchers seemingly face more injuries and have less predictable developmental paths, but I believe it's true. Looking at the ages of the best SP vs. ages of the best hitters, it becomes clear that they operate on totally different aging curves. Pitchers usually take a few years to figure out their pitch mix and learn the craft, while also gaining mound insights that can help offset physical decline. A pitcher who loses velocity can usually introduce different pitches to maintain their effectiveness. Hitters, once they start sliding down the cliff, there's not usually anything they can do to stop it. There are exceptions, but this is most typical.

In many other leagues I completely abandon pitching prospects because I'd rather shop in the post-hype section than spend farm slots and years developing SP's. But this league is too deep for that. Retaining full rosters means the post-hype guys are all sticking around on their teams until they fail to the bullpen or flop entirely. Trading for pitching will always be an option, but I don't think the true aces will be available for anything less than a king's ransom. You'll have that bounty to offer in trade, but reading into your disdain for pitching in general, it doesn't sound like you'll be too willing to pay that price.

I think this league will take some adjustments from everyone to figure out the inefficiencies.