LockDown Dynasty HDID--Gwynndergarten.

[GwynnInTheHall]

So what a draft experience, one of the most challenging I've been in to date. 20 Teams, 5x5 with OBP replace Avg and Saves+Holds replacing Saves. 1 ca, 2 Ut, 23 starters 7 reserves and a 25 man minor league squad. Forever Dynasty so, we're in it for the long runs. Different strategies going in and throughout.

I went in with te 2nd pick, which meant I should start strong, but in a draft of 1100 players, lost can go wring between your first pick and your last. I tried not to let that happen. I hope I succeeded. I went in thinking--there will NOT be a season in 2020, that elevated guys with TJ surgery and other injuries and allowed me to justify taking some very young players. It's also allowed me to virtually ignore save/holds because that changes so much year to year and great holds guys come out of nowhere each year. I focused on young upside players trying to stay under 30 which for the most part I did (I mistakenly thought Shun Yamaguchi was a bit younger or I would have taken Daniel Espino instead) so here's the damage:

Ca Wilson Contreras
1b Jesus Aguilar
3bJohan Camargo
CI Rowdy Tellez
2b Garrett Hampson
SS Paul DeJong
MI Didi Gregorius
OF Ronald Acuna
OF Austin Meadows
OF Eddie Rosario
OF Anthony Santander
OF Franchy Cordero
UT Jose Martinez
UT Jake Bauers

Res bats: Clint Fraizer, Jose Peraza, David Bote, Ryon Healy.

Relevant Minor Leguaers: Evan White, Austin Hays.

Rotation

Shane, Bieber
Jose Berrios
Dinelson Lamet
Yonny Chirinos
Ross Stripling
Joe Ross
Daniel Norris
Luis Perdomo
Josh Taylor

Resv Touki Toussaint, Richard Rodriguez and Jamison Tallion

My minor leaguers are pretty young so--Of course they start with:

Jasson Dominguez
Aaron Bracho
Greyson Rodriguez
Brailyn Marquez
Tristem McKenzie
Justice Sheffield
Reggie Preciado
Shun Yamaguchi
Tucapito Marcano
Ryamn Weathers
Luiz Gohara
Anderson Espinosa
Reggie Lawson
Ronny Henriquez
Tyler Walls
Elehuris Montero
Wenceel Perez
Drew Rassumssen
Tirso Ornelas
Ronald Bolanos
Mario Feliciano
Erik Miller
Kyle McCann and the aforementioned White and Hays.

I'm looking to be competitive in a couple of years since I should finish low IF there's a season I can stock up the dregs of my minor league roster. If not, we randomly pick order and it's a wildcard where I might draft (although just going with this years order is fine by me)

I'd like to thank Chancellor who was very helpful along the way allowing me to bounce ideas off him and in return I promise to never drag him out of his SUV.

Well that's that--Projections have me middle of the pack with this starting roster, so hopefully it's not too bad.

Any thoughts and/or criticism will be appreciated.

Thanks!

[chancellor]

Was a blast GITH! I'm only moderately biased, but I really like your team.

[Teenwolf]

Offense has some big holes, with 5 spots occupied by guys without full-time roles. This isn't necessarily the worst thing for the long run, as the other spots have some stars. Franchy Cordero's future will determine a lot here. You will need to either hope your prospect bats develop into above average regulars, or trade for some to fill those holes.

Pitching looks better. Bieber, Berrios, Lamet is a solid trio, and I think Stripling is a great ratio helper, and could possibly be more of a traditional starter if he gets dealt. I just don't know how Stripling's lower velo would play over longer outings, but he seems to have the craftiness to be above average. I do think it's a mistake to completely disregard MR's. I know how volatile the RP market is, but there's a definite advantage to having closers collecting 30-40 saves vs set-up guys collecting 15-20 holds. I tried to snag as many future closers as I could for this reason.

Prospects look okay. Top 2, Jasson Dominguez and Aaron Bracho have star potential and I would have loved to grab if I were going for prospects that early. The rest, I'm less into. I like pitching prospects who are recovering from injury/TJ, but you go for the really busted arms. McKenzie, Gohara, Espinoza all ranked very highly at one time, all now looking broken. If any of those 3 can stay healthy enough to be a big league starter, they have potential. But they look pretty busted to me.

[gcstomp]

Landing Acuna starts you off ahead of everyone. Meadows at 3 is nice pairing. I was slapped back when at 4 you picked the 17 yr old jasson dominguez. The way we had a couple teams vacuuming up the top 50 prospects you had to make your move or he would have been gone. Same way keith jumped so early on vaughn, you needed to snag the blue chips you wanted too early or not at all. I am happy I snagged a few top prospects despite the early and relentless run on them while keeping my focus, age 30 or under vets who were going to let me have a fighting chance in standings this year, as well as next 3, 5 years, plus the prospect plays that have a longer window but with more risk.

We had for example someone go early with verlander and max scherzer. That means they are gambling we play ball this year, and 1 year makes a big difference if we cant, right?

[Ken]

We had for example someone go early with verlander and max scherzer. That means they are gambling we play ball this year, and 1 year makes a big difference if we cant, right?

Verlander and Scherzer weren't that early though were they? Late 3rd and early 4th round picks? And I'm not convinced they are done in 2021.

[Teenwolf]

Verlander and Scherzer weren't that early though were they? Late 3rd and early 4th round picks? And I'm not convinced they are done in 2021.

The Verlander and Scherzer picks are setting that owner up for a rebuild IMO, and unfortunately the market seems to undervalue SP's near the end of the line. The tricky part is that you need to hope they're putting up big numbers to get a good return, and with SP's, the odds of pitching well with no nagging injury issues into your late 30's is low. Especially given that both Verlander and Scherzer have racked up the nagging injuries in the last few years.

They could very well put up big numbers for a few more years, but the level of risk was too high for those early picks for my liking. I'm happy I didn't have a pick at the turn because it gives you the ability to double-down on a strategy, and if the strategy you double-down on is a poor one, you're double-screwed.

[Teenwolf]

OTOH, regarding Scherzer and Verlander...

I think this is the perfect year to draft hurting and older SP's. I think the year off will do wonders for veteran pitchers across the board.

[gcstomp]

I would bet verlander and max are not done in 2021. They make a zillion bucks a year, they will drag themselves out for years and years. But both are past their primes. The reason you select guys pre age 30 is not because they are better than max and verlander, they arent, no one is, those are 2 top of the top killers at sp, awesome if 2020 was the window you have eye on. But because we dont care much about 2020 or 2021 so much, but have a 5 or 10 year window.

Just different strategy, different owners have different timelines. I dont want a roster of just unproven teenagers either, that is the other extreme, imo you have to have some guys who can actually play and get you stats to be competitive in 2020, 2021, thru 5 or 10 years.

[Teenwolf]

I would bet verlander and max are not done in 2021. They make a zillion bucks a year, they will drag themselves out for years and years. But both are past their primes. The reason you select guys pre age 30 is not because they are better than max and verlander, they arent, no one is, those are 2 top of the top killers at sp, awesome if 2020 was the window you have eye on. But because we dont care much about 2020 or 2021 so much, but have a 5 or 10 year window.

Just different strategy, different owners have different timelines. I dont want a roster of just unproven teenagers either, that is the other extreme, imo you have to have some guys who can actually play and get you stats to be competitive in 2020, 2021, thru 5 or 10 years.

Good points. I would also say that the aging curves for hitters and pitchers are completely different. Hitters production falls off in the early 30's nearly universally, but pitchers often produce right up until the end without serious skill decline. I think I read that in 2019, 11 of the top 20 SP were over 30. I think for SP's particularly, age was too big of a factor on values. That means the SP2 types in their early 30's lasted much longer than riskier and younger SP's. For example, I landed 2 guys with SP1/SP2 ability in the 9th and 10th rds, Darvish 9th and Sale 10th. They should still have 3-5 great years ahead each. But the young SP's who went ahead of them, many are much riskier. E-Rodriguez, McCullers, and Wheeler all major leaguers drafted before them. S. Howard, L. Patino, AJ Puk also all drafted around the same time. Different strategies for sure, but I think the extra years on the younger SP's are worth less than the larger track records of success from Darvish and Sale, given the high failure rate for even the highest ranked SP prospects.

But that's all personal strategy and whatnot.

[wombat104]

I was surprised with the Dominguez pick, especially since I was thinking you would be focused on the next few years. I like your pitching and you should be set there for a while, especially your starters. I agree about the reliever market, but not grabbing a few younger arms means it might take awhile to be respectable.

I'll be posting mine shortly, it is a mess, should be able to rebuild sometime by 2030.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Thanks for the feedback. Again, I drafted with 2 things in mind--No season in 2020 (and if there is no real hope to compete) and 2, having been in save+holds leagues for a long while, I really undervalue closers and lean on the volatility of the Saves/Holds market to be able to FAAB enough of those type arms to finish middle of the pack. To me it's the least important/easiest to be avg category in this league.

I do expect White Hays to have FT gigs once they start playing games and I believe I have several guys who've flashed solid to above avg performance and feel I only need to hit on a couple of those going forward.

I'm gonna use the next 2 years to hopefully position this team for a 3-4 year run of contention starting 2022.

Dominguez, yeah I couldn't let him go because I'm pretty sure Rick or Robert would have sniped him. And I's like to think Tallion will return in form and give me a 4 man starting core which will anchor the team for a while.

Again, thanks for the feedback and great draft guys! Good luck!

[wombat104]

More thoughts after marinating on teams over the weekend. I liked where you snagged White, Hampson and Hays young starters all had in round 10 or later. Really liked taking Meadows in the 3rd, I was hoping he would fall back to me. I also liked some of your later gambles like Healy, Sheffield, Frazier and Bauers. I agree that your starters, especially if Tallion rebounds, will be a great core. If you can mine for MR's then I think you are starting your contention window as early as 2021 and if that happens then Dominguez will give you that blue chip trading piece to fill in any holes that pop up along the way.