Our League's alternative to our March 27 auction

[Judge Jude]

SP Scherzer, Hendricks, CSmith, PLopez, Cueto, Samardzija DONE
RP Neris NEED RP RP
INF C Molina, 1B Rizzo, 3B Suarez, 2B Albies, SS DeJong, CI Longoria, MI Kendrick NEED C
OF Polanco, Eaton, Dyson NEED OF OF UT

[ThatRogue]

With your offense, having to settle for Vogt instead of Posey should not hurt. Assuming you can wait on him, grabbing Knebel & Hudson with your next two picks could pay dividends. High risk, high reward...as both have concerns/obstacles to accumulating saves.

[Judge Jude]

ooh, am glad you reminded me about Knebel.

at this point, my W, K, and Ratio are fine.
ERA is mediocre.
SV - there's basically three tiers with 4 teams each (of projections). I'm in the middle, with a solid closer.

so extra SV from Hudson/Watson/Lorenzen vs Knebel not necessarily a big help.

Knebel has a better ERA projection, but he definitely is a wild card. but of the three, the best chance to do me solid in that category.

I'll finish well in R and SB no matter who my last hitters are, and AVG is just an indistinguishable pile. HR and RBI, should be ok.

have more options with OF from my limited list.

Knebel might slip further, but might be the guy I need.

have never played in a redraft league. interesting that with no keepers to get some teams way ahead of the game at auction, diversification is really tricky.

even moreso in a 'draft and hold.'

a couple of teams may dominate a certain category - which is the last thing you want to do. but in a trades league, you can easily deal away excess for what you do need.

[Judge Jude]

Happy Easter!

I decided Knebel will be around a while, so I chose Crawford in Round 18 - last available 500+ AB guy, I suspect - over Watson, DanHudson, Lorenzen, Knebel, Vogt.

Watson went off the board on the next pick. Vogt disappeared as well.

SP Scherzer, Hendricks, CSmith, PLopez, Cueto, Samardzija DONE
RP Neris NEED RP RP
INF C Molina, 1B Rizzo, 3B Suarez, 2B Albies, SS DeJong, CI Longoria, MI Kendrick, UT Crawford NEED C
OF Polanco, Eaton, Dyson NEED OF OF

[Judge Jude]

updated "standings" with 5 rounds to go

83, 78.5 (me), 76.5, 73, 71.5, 69, 68.5, 67, 63........... 49, 44, 38

that's competitive - so I need more good advice here to maintain my slot - or better!


with no possible trades or transactions, avoiding excess seemed critical.
well, my category points are 7, 9, 9, 9, 5 offense and 8, 7, 9, 4, 11.5 in pitching - 39 offense, 39.5 pitching

MY SQUAD SO FAR
1 SP Scherzer, 2 2B Albies, 3 1B Rizzo, 4 3B ESuarez, 5 RP Neris, 6 SP Hendricks, 7 SS DeJong, 8 OF Polanco, 9 OF Eaton, 10 OF Dyson, 11 C Molina, 12 SP CSmith, 13 MI Kendrick, 14 CI Longoria, 15 SP PLopez, 16 SP Cueto, 17 SP Samardzija, 18 UT BCrawford

need RP RP C OF OF

remaining HQ faves for me, re projections:
OF Quinn 8, OF Fowler 7, OF Naylor 5, OF Desmond 4, OF Bruce 4, RP Lorenzen 4, RP DanHudson 4

others on my dart - er, draft - board, and yes, I may have to catch and eat a fish or two from these contaminated waters


C - Wolters, Barnes (I'll be owning one after Vogt just got poaches)
[NO FISHING 1B - DSmith]
[NO FISHING 3B - NWalker]
[NO FISHING 2B - Hechavarria, Solano, Dietrich]
[NO FISHING SS - EGonzalez, Hechavarria]
OF - Kemp, Duvall, DomSmith
[NO INTEREST SP - Mahle, Leake]
RP - AMiller, Knebel, Stanek

what do I need most? glad you asked. let's take a quick stroll (c'mon, you're not busy!)

HR (the most complicated, by far!)
277, 244, 232, 223, 215, 209 (me), 197, 194, 194, 184, 184.
I list the latter two because unlike most of these teams they need 4 hitters - not 3. same for a 194, so they're all in play. 277 only has a C slot left so he'll try to hang on. 197 has only 2 H left.
I think I can hold my ground here, and 215 needs a MI to my C, so that could be close.

RBI
883, 748, 744, 730 (me), 693, 691, 667.
this is better - 667 on down ain't catching up, so I have a top 6 in hand here, moreso than HR. 883 of course is the "only a C left" team, but I ain't getting, say, 170 RBI from my last 3 slots. I concede. on the other end, 693 only has 2 H left so bye bye. should place from 2nd to 4th.

R
961, 805, 795, 790 (me), 744, 733.
seem to have locked in a top 4 and - as with RBI - can see 2 more points from my backyard. and again can't catch the 13-hitter leader.

SB
120, 113, 109, 105 (me), 101, 98, 85.
so a top 6 seems to be ensured here. 109 only has the C left, so I'll pass him even if accidentally. 113 only has 2 H left, so can be had as well. another first-division finish.

AVG
.277, .275, .273, .270, .270, .270, .270, .269, .268 (me), .264.
our first problem - Crawford giveth, Crawford took away 2 AVG points.

CONCLUSION: SB seems least important, and any OFs will help in HR-RBI-R. but AVG probably should be my main lean - well, with HR?

W
78, 75, 68, 67, 66, 61 (me), 59, 58, 57, 56, 55.
typical, right! most have only 2 P left, and 67 only has 1. but I won't catch him with 2 RP picks to his one. 59 only has one pick left, which helps. very tough to predict RP W of course, so maybe I should just embrace the murky middle.

SV
74, 62, 60, 54, 53, 38 (me), 38, 36, 24.
6th is my best hope, 8th is my worst. the other 38 only has 1 P left, but no reason for me to chase SV now.

K
1366, 1138, 1108, 1064 (me), 1043, 1021, 1006.
1138 only has 1 P slot left, so I can dream - and 1021 the same. so looks like 3-4-5 finish regardless of my picks.

ERA
3.50, 3.63, 3.66, 3.74, 3.78, 3.80, 3.85, 3.85, 3.85, 3.86 (me), 3.94
another problem - and one I can't full solve. but a 3.50 here seems worth more than W or SV or K to me.

RATIO
1.19, 1.19 (me), 1.20, 1.22, 1.22, 1.24.
Jeff S diverged my ERA from my Ratio. and the 1.22s only have 5 SPs, so a 6th would ensure me a top 3 finish here.

CONCLUSION: It's all about the ERA with these final two RPs?

[Judge Jude]

Fowler

MY SQUAD SO FAR
1 SP Scherzer, 2 2B Albies, 3 1B Rizzo, 4 3B ESuarez, 5 RP Neris, 6 SP Hendricks, 7 SS DeJong, 8 OF Polanco, 9 OF Eaton, 10 OF Dyson, 11 C Molina, 12 SP CSmith, 13 MI Kendrick, 14 CI Longoria, 15 SP PLopez, 16 SP Cueto, 17 SP Samardzija, 18 UT BCrawford, 19 OF Fowler

need RP RP C OF

[ThatRogue]

It they play the Florida-Arizona plan and assuming he’s healthy (with all the extra time to heal) and can DH, Cespedes would have been a nice add for you. Tapia/Desmond could have been an interesting pairing for the last two OF spots, but it looks like Tapia was poached too. Both of those options would have been high risk, high reward plays...but no crying over spilt milk (or in baseball, in general).

With the remaining players, Knebel seems to have the highest upside for your team, followed by Bruce, then Hudson/Stanek, then Wolters.

[Judge Jude]

thanks, thatrogue!

updating my "board"

remaining HQ faves for me, re projections: Naylor 5, Desmond 4, Bruce 4, Daza 3

others on my dart - er, draft - board, and yes, I may have to catch a fish or two from these polluted waters

C - Wolters, Barnes (have to draft one)
OF - Kemp, Duvall, DSmith, Van Meter
RP - AMiller, Knebel, Stanek

MY SQUAD SO FAR
1 SP Scherzer, 2 2B Albies, 3 1B Rizzo, 4 3B ESuarez, 5 RP Neris, 6 SP Hendricks, 7 SS DeJong, 8 OF Polanco, 9 OF Eaton, 10 OF Dyson, 11 C Molina, 12 SP CSmith, 13 MI Kendrick, 14 CI Longoria, 15 SP PLopez, 16 SP Cueto, 17 SP Samardzija, 18 UT BCrawford, 19 OF Fowler

need RP RP C OF

[chancellor]

Definitely agree on Knebel. I actually like Wolters next - yeah, I know, he has no power, but his counting stats aren't bad for a C at this point and his BA won't hurt you as much as Barnes. The combo of higher counting stats and 20-30 points of BA outweigh the value of a Desmond/Bruce over Naylor/VanMeter, IMO.

[Judge Jude]

same guy near the wraparound just snagged Hudson AND Lorenzen


only one C taken in the last 35 picks - Vogt, naturally.


feels like the "room" is willing to let those 10 open C slots for last. or, there could be a run before my next pick.

will roll the dice with..... Knebel and pray on Wolters.

[Judge Jude]

MY SQUAD SO FAR
1 SP Scherzer, 2 2B Albies, 3 1B Rizzo, 4 3B ESuarez, 5 RP Neris, 6 SP Hendricks, 7 SS DeJong, 8 OF Polanco, 9 OF Eaton, 10 OF Dyson, 11 C Molina, 12 SP CSmith, 13 MI Kendrick, 14 CI Longoria, 15 SP PLopez, 16 SP Cueto, 17 SP Samardzija, 18 UT BCrawford, 19 Fowler, 20 Knebel

need RP C OF

thru Round 20, my "lead" narrows. now me 83 in a cluster:
83, 82, 77, 72, 71, 70, 69, 68, 66, 65...............49, 41, 41

updating with what I hope are "shiny objects" that lure rivals away from my group of bums

remaining HQ faves NOT for me, re projections:
WHarris 9, IDiaz 6
Ginkel 5, CMartin 5, Cron 4, Phelps 4, Suter 4
JayDavis 3, Lowrie 3, Zimmerman 3, Barnhart 3, Ervin 3, Slater 3, Brebbia 3, Treinen 3, Strahm 3, Pomeranz 3, Kunel 3, NJones 3, Kolarek 3, Hughes 3, PBaez 3

and my board:

remaining HQ faves for me, re projections:
OF Naylor 5, OF Desmond 4, OF Bruce 4

others on my dart - er, draft - board, and yes, I may have to catch and eat a fish or two from these contaminated waters

5 more picks to go, and Wolters and the OFs remain

C - Wolters, Barnes
[NO FISHING 1B - DSmith, Van Meter]
[NO FISHING 3B - NWalker]
[NO FISHING 2B - Hechavarria, Solano, Dietrich, Van Meter]
[NO FISHING SS - EGonzalez, Hechavarria]
OF - Kemp, Duvall, DomSmith, Van Meter, Daza
[NO INTEREST SP - Mahle, Leake]
RP - AMiller, Stanek, Jefferies, Steckenrider, Hunter

[chancellor]

You need C, OF, and RP, correct?

[Judge Jude]

yes

2 picks to go, and Wolters is still on the board. one of those teams already has two Cs - having poached Posey from me a few rounds back. btw - so I am THISCLOSE.

as noted, if I am sticking with my plan - and I am - then I probably have to take Wolters at Round 21 given the plethora of OF and that no P stands out AND that five teams already have their staffs (just one team is out of hitting slots). it's the Wolters-ABarnes differential.

then whatever leftover OF in Round 22 and close out with a random RP.

thru Round 20, my "lead" narrowed. now me 83 in a cluster:
83, 82, 77, 72, 71, 70, 69, 68, 66, 65...............49, 41, 41

I am locked into a mid-pack finish in W and SV, and should 'finish' 3rd or 4th in K depending on whether the one guy close to me picks a SP or RP as his last P (he has 6 SP and 2 RP and vulnerable in ERA/Ratio so he SHOULD turtle-up and go R).

I'm locked into 7th or 8th in projected ERA, yet lead the pack in Ratio (barely of course). closest team to me has 2 P slots left, and luck IMPROVING your Ratio at this point! so who my last pitcher doesn't really matter, projections-wise.

SB is better, with anywhere from 8 to 12 points in play. depends how many teams can still find a small basket of SB out there (Van Meter projected 6 might be best at this point). and I should finish 2nd in Runs, which is nice. AVG, just barely mid-pack at best.

am 3rd in RBI, and see a point I could gain (Tony! Tony!) or another I could lose. HR - unless I get Jay Bruce, I'll probably project to 5th or 6th.

the current 'runnerup' - easily the most experienced drafter in this auction league - was going great guns until he "overcooked the pasta."

with 1st in W and 2nd in K already locked in, he went with potentially ERA/Ratio-crushing Trevor Williams in Round 21 to complete the staff. that one pick could cost him the 'virtual title.' I'll recheck the numbers when we finish the round tomorrow....

[Judge Jude]

so now I have survived the dreaded "Wolters sweat" - unless the one team ahead of me tomorrow, who needs two P and a UT - goes for Wolters.

he'll likely take a P or one of my OFs instead, which is fine.

then I go Wolters in Round 21, OF in Round 22, and random RP in Round 23.....

will be

MY SQUAD SO FAR
1 SP Scherzer, 2 2B Albies, 3 1B Rizzo, 4 3B ESuarez, 5 RP Neris, 6 SP Hendricks, 7 SS DeJong, 8 OF Polanco, 9 OF Eaton, 10 OF Dyson, 11 C Molina, 12 SP CSmith, 13 MI Kendrick, 14 CI Longoria, 15 SP PLopez, 16 SP Cueto, 17 SP Samardzija, 18 UT BCrawford, 19 Fowler, 20 Knebel, 21 C Wolters

need RP OF

[Judge Jude]

MY SQUAD SO FAR
1 SP Scherzer, 2 2B Albies, 3 1B Rizzo, 4 3B ESuarez, 5 RP Neris, 6 SP Hendricks, 7 SS DeJong, 8 OF Polanco, 9 OF Eaton, 10 OF Dyson, 11 C Molina, 12 SP CSmith, 13 MI Kendrick, 14 CI Longoria, 15 SP PLopez, 16 SP Cueto, 17 SP Samardzija, 18 UT BCrawford, 19 Fowler, 20 Knebel, 21 C Wolters

need RP OF

OF - Naylor, Desmond, Bruce, Kemp, Duvall, Van Meter, Daza
RP - AMiller, Stanek, Jefferies, Steckenrider, Hunter