Originally posted by cavebird
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Official *MLB Season Delayed* Thread
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Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer View PostI can imagine there being some sort of compromise where some games are played in empty stadiums or at neutral sites, whether at the beginning of the season or during the postseason, and that the players might potentially be willing to bargain away part of their salaries on a per-game basis in order to make a season feasible and get more total salary as a result. But if people are expecting multiple months of a season to be played at empty stadiums, that is just not financially reasonable.
As far as empty stadiums, I just don't think there will be much of a choice. The players will have to compromise to get something rather than nothing, as will the owners. If there's no season, the owners would lose all the TV revenue as well, since the networks would get a make-good year for free.
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Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer View PostNot every team is in the same situation by any means. Some teams have deep corporate pockets and lines of credit that they can draw upon. But some do not.
However, the assets you mention of MLBAM, etc., how much do you think you can borrow against an asset that isn't producing any revenue for the near future? Also, an individual team doesn't own MLBAM and I'm guessing couldn't use their ownership stake as collateral for a loan? I'm struggling to think how an MLB team would have anywhere near $400-600M in other assets, not including the expected value of player contracts, which again, aren't producing revenue right now. Most teams lease their stadiums (with some exceptions).
A typical team would have something like $300M in obligations over the course of the year. I can't imagine many teams outside of maybe the Yankees have anywhere close to $300M in cash or cash equivalents on hand. The majority of the obligations are player contracts, which if there's no revenue, they aren't going to be obligated to pay. I don't know how well that situation compares to a typical corporation.I'm just here for the baseball.
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Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer View PostI very much want baseball season to happen, assuming it could happen safely. I also don't think it will happen.
It's at least 60%. Maybe a little higher than that. And I'm guessing that some of the parts that are not related to gate/ballpark are also down (non-ballpark merchandising, some portion of corporate sponsorships). Special events at the ballpark (e.g., corporate meetings, concerts) are also a revenue stream you might not think about but also are gone at this time. Special events are maybe 1% of the revenue, but there are a lot of little revenue streams like that that are gone even though they are not directly game-related.
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Chance, I'm not a forensic accountant, nor do I play one on TV...check this link out and see if it makes sense in this debate. Thanks...
"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
- Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)
"Your shitty future continues to offend me."
-Warren Ellis
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Originally posted by Hornsby View PostChance, I'm not a forensic accountant, nor do I play one on TV...check this link out and see if it makes sense in this debate. Thanks...
https://www.forbes.com/mlb-valuations/list/#tab:overall
Sorry I made it sound like a debate. Let me clarify - I think Seitz is dead accurate in his assessments of available cash and owner readiness.
Based on the additional info you've provided, clearly the Rangers and Marlins are at significant risk. Heck, I can hardly see how the Rangers meet their debt requirements with that kind of load - if my math is right, they're carrying $760 MM in debt load.
But for the remainder, I'm still really surprised by their inability to have standard levels of cash or cash equivalents available and/or access lines of credit that should easily carry their expenses minus player salaries, or a limited liability of player salaries. Take the Pirates as an example - they have a fairly clean debt to value at 8%, good income stream once we're back to playing baseball - they should easily be able to tap a line of credit for $70 million given that balance sheet, valuation, and potential income stream.
I'll also add that I'm even more impressed with Brewers owner Mark Attansio and his financial management team as I've dug into this more. Everyone noticed some of the cost-cutting moves, which was attributed to saving to get Christian Yelich on a long-term deal. But what also didn't get noticed in the background was the Brewers retired some high risk/cost debt and built more cash reserves. Exactly how much wasn't mentioned, but it's pretty clear his team has done an exceptional job keeping their financial house in order.I'm just here for the baseball.
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Virginia Gov Northam issued a mandatory stay at home order until JUNE 10.
Maryland also issued one, but with no date attached. DC is in the same boat.
Obviously, this is probably going to be the norm in many other states. That means a June start date is probably out of the question, and July is starting to look more and more unlikely, and we all know what that means.
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I thought commerce would overcome best safety practices, but it looks like that won't be the case. It is crazy how much worse this thing is in the US than elsewhere. It is a shame we can't do the simple thing and just all lock down hard for two weeks. This whole thing would be totally gone if the whole world did that, but that isn't really practical, and we seem to be doing a worse job with it than anyone else. If we were better, we'd have baseball, but we have sucked at containing this more than any other country. It isn't even close.
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Originally posted by revo View PostVirginia Gov Northam issued a mandatory stay at home order until JUNE 10.
Maryland also issued one, but with no date attached. DC is in the same boat.
Obviously, this is probably going to be the norm in many other states. That means a June start date is probably out of the question, and July is starting to look more and more unlikely, and we all know what that means.
The NBA, by the way, is looking to hold its post-season in July or August and is looking to have it contained in a single city, which is similar to what I alluded to with MLB earlier in this thread about having all their games in Florida.
The only way MLB will be able to play this year is in a single state with empty stadiums. If they're not interested in something like that, well let's just say every pitcher should get TJ surgery now and won't miss any time, lol.
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Originally posted by Sour Masher View PostI thought commerce would overcome best safety practices, but it looks like that won't be the case. It is crazy how much worse this thing is in the US than elsewhere. It is a shame we can't do the simple thing and just all lock down hard for two weeks. This whole thing would be totally gone if the whole world did that, but that isn't really practical, and we seem to be doing a worse job with it than anyone else. If we were better, we'd have baseball, but we have sucked at containing this more than any other country. It isn't even close.
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Originally posted by revo View PostThe city of Toronto decreed that there can be no “public events” until June 30.I'm just here for the baseball.
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