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Official *MLB Season Delayed* Thread
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Originally posted by Sour Masher View PostThey may have won this battle, but I think it cost them in terms of public sentiment. Just a few weeks ago, it seems the majority had this fight as simply the bad guy owners vs the good guy players. Toward the end of this thing, though, I'm seeing more social media comments that suggest the players lost some of the public support to the narrative of both sides being greedy and wasting an opportunity to do right by fans. IDK. Hard to say how everyone really feels or will feel once games are played. And it is hard to say what role public sentiment even plays in future negotiations between owners and players.
Short term, for me, we go back to the question of how many and which players sit this short season out for legit safety concerns or just out of spite/frustration.
- Expanded rosters for this season, which will be primarily lower-paid players. For the most part, the players added will make much more in a 60-game big league season than a full minor league season, and they get a full year of service time, medical benefits, and MLB perks. And the union gains something around 90 dues-paying members for the year.
- Universal DH for the foreseeable future.
- Retained the right to file a grievance. This is huge going into next year - basically a billion-dollar bargaining chip. This alone, IMO, will prevent the owners from locking out next year. Nothing says "negotiating in bad faith" more than a lockout.
- Players contracts protected for 2021 and beyond should they choose to sit out. Another pretty huge win. I really didn't think the players would get this one, except for clear medical reasons.
- The last win, having nothing to do with the owners, was the uniform backing of the players to allow the MLBPA to do their job and get a deal done. Other than the Blake Snell flareup - which was dealt with quietly and effectively - very little came out on social media that hurt the negotiations or players union position. Going into what will be an even more challenging negotiation next year, that win is very, very important.I'm just here for the baseball.
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Originally posted by cavebird View PostWow. Players won that fight. Got pretty much the same thing and kept the grievance. They knew the owners were boxed in. Harks back to the time when the MLBPA was the most successful union in the world, pretty much. They had not been doing so well recently.
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Originally posted by mgwiz22 View PostI see this more as a long term loss. There is too much animosity here and there does not seem to be an end in sight for the animosity.
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I think someone touted Bauer here once, but he just done got canceled....
Trevor Bauer
@BauerOutage
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13h
So we gave up shares of playoff money, eliminating the qualifying offer for 2021, paycheck advance forgiveness, Covid 19 protections, and protection for non guaranteed arb contracts for next year in order to hold on to our right to file a grievance...
Thinking face
Thinking facefinished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84
SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
C Stallings 2, Casali 1
1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1
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Originally posted by Judge Jude View PostI think someone touted Bauer here once, but he just done got canceled....
Trevor Bauer
@BauerOutage
·
13h
So we gave up shares of playoff money, eliminating the qualifying offer for 2021, paycheck advance forgiveness, Covid 19 protections, and protection for non guaranteed arb contracts for next year in order to hold on to our right to file a grievance...
Thinking face
Thinking faceI'm just here for the baseball.
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Originally posted by chancellor View PostI'm not a big Bauer fan, but he did at least keep his mouth shut until the deal was essentially done. I have no idea what he means about Covid-19 protections - I think the plan is pretty robust. I think he's wacked on the QO issue, too - given losses, I suspect very few QOs will be offered on the fear that the players will take them. And not recognizing value of a grievance is pretty Bauer-like.
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Originally posted by cavebird View PostYes, but Bauer is in the final year of arbitration, and he will likely be one of the few who does get a qualifying offer.
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Originally posted by cavebird View PostYes, but Bauer is in the final year of arbitration, and he will likely be one of the few who does get a qualifying offer. Given that his stated preference is to go year to year on contracts and teams won't want to part with a draft pick for a single season of a free agent, he might be the most affected player in baseball on the qualifying offers/no qualifying offers issue.I'm just here for the baseball.
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Originally posted by cavebird View PostEven assuming 2018 is the outlier, he still compares favorably to Wheeler given his health history and ability to eat innings.
Definitely worth a qualifying offer.
Bauer - last 4 years bWAR - 2.2, 2.9, 5.8, 1.1, fWAR
If you believe 2018 was real, worth it, otherwise, nope.
Add in COVID, and he better hope he has a great 2020...
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Originally posted by Ken View PostWheeler last 2 years - 3.7 bWAR, 3.9 bWAR
Definitely worth a qualifying offer.
Bauer - last 4 years bWAR - 2.2, 2.9, 5.8, 1.1, fWAR
If you believe 2018 was real, worth it, otherwise, nope.
Add in COVID, and he better hope he has a great 2020...
Bauer last two years--5.8 fWAR, 3.3 fWAR, total of 9.1 fWAR.
Wheeler career prior to free agency (six+ years of service time): 12.6 fWAR, 749 IP.
Bauer career prior to free agency (six+ years of service time): 17.4 fWAR + 2020, 1117 IP + 2020.
Bauer compares favorably, especially with Wheeler's injury history.
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Originally posted by Ken View PostYour analysis doesn't make sense. You noted that EVEN if 2018 is the outlier Bauer is worth it, but then you used 2018 stats to sell it.
Without 2018, Bauer is not worth a QO.
On a non-statistical dive, Wheeler has a little more velocity, but less K producing stuff, and a little more control (at least the last two seasons). He's got a gimpier arm, but his head seems to be screwed on right. Bauer can eat far more innings, but his head, well....
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