Official *MLB Season Delayed* Thread

[Ken]

How many people are associated with a WWE card? It's gotta be at least 50. So if the WWE could do it, why not MLB in an empty stadium?

Starting to get the sense MLB will be back sooner (starting up ST in mid-to-late May) rather than later.

Isn't it significantly different though? Like you said, 50 people for a WWE card. If there's a positive case, you can reasonably attempt to quarantine them all locally.

With the mlb, you have at least ~ 65 for each game (25 per team plus coaches, umpires, camera crew), and 15 games going on a day. If there's a positive case, you send them all... where? Where do you keep 1000 people (and their families??) to prevent them from infecting each other and prevent them from infecting the community around them?

[Ken]

I agree - though Rob Manfred will need some pretty big stones to do it. 99+% of this could go right, but imagine a scenario where Justin Verlander falls ill and has a moderately bad outcome - ends up on a ventilator, but survives. I really doubt Rob Manfred's career survives that kind of outcome.

I think that 99% is wayyyyy too optimistic. Maybe 99% chance that specifically a player doesn't die, but that discounts those they are in contact with.

[revo]

Isn't it significantly different though? Like you said, 50 people for a WWE card. If there's a positive case, you can reasonably attempt to quarantine them all locally.

With the mlb, you have at least ~ 65 for each game (25 per team plus coaches, umpires, camera crew), and 15 games going on a day. If there's a positive case, you send them all... where? Where do you keep 1000 people (and their families??) to prevent them from infecting each other and prevent them from infecting the community around them?

I'm assuming each person gets tested daily, which I think will be necessary for this season to happen. If that's true, then if a player or associated person gets infected, it's localized to that ballpark and shouldn't affect the other 14 games and 28 teams in the other ballparks. Is there a reason why you think everyone associated with the sport should be quarantined if one person tests positive?

[GwynnInTheHall]

I'm assuming each person gets tested daily, which I think will be necessary for this season to happen. If that's true, then if a player or associated person gets infected, it's localized to that ballpark and shouldn't affect the other 14 games and 28 teams in the other ballparks. Is there a reason why you think everyone associated with the sport should be quarantined if one person tests positive?

That's a hell of a lot of tests and it'd take a massive effort to administer and process.

[Ken]

I'm assuming each person gets tested daily, which I think will be necessary for this season to happen. If that's true, then if a player or associated person gets infected, it's localized to that ballpark and shouldn't affect the other 14 games and 28 teams in the other ballparks. Is there a reason why you think everyone associated with the sport should be quarantined if one person tests positive?

Do we have enough tests to test everyone daily? That seems like a massive number of tests that we are nowhere close to having given the demand for those who are actually showing symptoms. ( And I don't see why mlb would get extra tests, but maybe they would )

If there's a positive test, do we assume no contamination since the last test? Are tests reliable in early stages after transmission? I assume there is some period of time during which you can have it and still test negative, but maybe it's instantaneous? I don't know enough about it to say either way.

[revo]

That's a hell of a lot of tests and it'd take a massive effort to administer and process.

Yes, but this was something they knew from the outset of all this, that daily tests were necessary.

One team doctor can't administer 60 tests a day?

[Kevin Seitzer]

Isn't it significantly different though? Like you said, 50 people for a WWE card. If there's a positive case, you can reasonably attempt to quarantine them all locally.

With the mlb, you have at least ~ 65 for each game (25 per team plus coaches, umpires, camera crew), and 15 games going on a day. If there's a positive case, you send them all... where? Where do you keep 1000 people (and their families??) to prevent them from infecting each other and prevent them from infecting the community around them?

I've been wondering myself what the minimum number is that you'd need for a game, who would need to be in some sort of contact with the rest of the group, so I'm going to run through it and see what I can come up with.

For each team:
26-man roster, which would be 27 for doubleheaders, but likely there will be a few extra players, let's be conservative and say 30
8 coaches
trainer and assistant trainer
strength coach (many teams also have an assistant but we'll leave them out since we're going for the minimum here)
two bullpen catchers
home clubhouse manager
visiting clubhouse manager
two clubhouse assistants, one for each clubhouse
at a minimum a chef or someone to serve food, might be multiple people but let's just count one for now
video coordinator
beat writer, possibly multiple but let's just count one per team for now
team doctor
physical therapist (many teams have multiple PTs and a massage therapist, but I'll say for now that the players will forego the extra staff)
bus driver (at least one, we'll just count one for now, although it would likely be multiple)

People who could potentially do their jobs without being "in the bubble", although it wouldn't be easy:
TV and radio broadcast crews
Media relations
Groundskeeping staff
Advance scouting group
Replay coordinator (could possibly just automate this from New York?)
traveling secretary (almost think they have to be in the bubble but I'm putting them outside for now)
general manager

Probably can operate without ball boys and mascots?

So that's 53 people per team in the bubble, on a very conservative count, and then add in a pool of umpires. If you add in the second group of broadcasters, etc., you're adding another 20-25 people per team.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Yes, but this was something they knew from the outset of all this, that daily tests were necessary.

One team doctor can't administer 60 tests a day?

I've no idea. Nor how long it takes to administer and process to get results in timely fashion. Plus as Ken asked, how many tests are available? If my math is close that's @1000 tests per day/slate of games. Multiplied by the season, so 80-100k tests plus playoffs.

I'm not sure where the country is on test availability, but if there aren't enough for the general public, as much as I miss baseball, there's no way I can agree to use the tests like this.

But again, I don't really know about these things

[Ken]

Yes, but this was something they knew from the outset of all this, that daily tests were necessary.

One team doctor can't administer 60 tests a day?

Seems like a PR nightmare, mlb suggesting they need a test every day when some people can't get a test full stop. Like I said above, maybe they do get it, but who approves that? And by what justification? Entertainment is more important than the health of thousands of individuals who can't get tested because mlb took all their tests?

[Kevin Seitzer]

Also, nobody talks about it, but you're going to get together a group of 1000 young men in a high-pressure environment and they're not going to have sex with anyone for several months?

[revo]

Seems like a PR nightmare, mlb suggesting they need a test every day when some people can't get a test full stop. Like I said above, maybe they do get it, but who approves that? And by what justification? Entertainment is more important than the health of thousands of individuals who can't get tested because mlb took all their tests?

That is a question that needs to be answered, but it's almost a certainty that they will need to test everyone associated with the game on a near-daily basis. Our president said if you need a test you can get a test, remember?

[Ken]

Also, nobody talks about it, but you're going to get together a group of 1000 young men in a high-pressure environment and they're not going to have sex with anyone for several months?

That's why I included family above, I don't see any way you tell these guys they aren't allowed to have family with them.

** edited to add.... although, maybe family is naive of me, to your point, all these single men, dang

[Ken]

That is a question that needs to be answered, but it's almost a certainty that they will need to test everyone associated with the game on a near-daily basis. Our president said

Sorry I tuned out here after this point in your post

[revo]

Also, nobody talks about it, but you're going to get together a group of 1000 young men in a high-pressure environment and they're not going to have sex with anyone for several months?

Free subscriptions to PornHub!

[chancellor]

I think that 99% is wayyyyy too optimistic. Maybe 99% chance that specifically a player doesn't die, but that discounts those they are in contact with.

I was speaking conceptually - 99+% could go right, but even if it did, a high-profile player like Verlander who would then have a very high-profile, vocal, and angry spouse....IMO, that outcome leads to the end of Manfred's career.

Of course, Seitzer's concern is more realistic. TMZ would make a killing tracking players sneaking out to get laid.