2k20 Josh Bell

[Sour Masher]

Players that explode like this are always hard for me to value. Was the explosion out of the norm the new norm? Will there be regression and if so, how much? What do you pay? What do you all think?

He sure looked like a new man, although he did fade in the second half. However, a groin injury did not help that. I tend to lean toward close to a repeat, minus maybe 8-10 homers, which still makes he very valuable. Would you pay for that?

[joncarlos]

ATC projetion: 630pa .274-32-100-86r-1sb
THE BAT projecton: 660pa .273-29-98-88r-3sb

I wish I had any idea who was going to drive him in those 60 times he's not driving himself in. The Pirates' lineup is not good. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say that Newman and Reynolds won't be tooooo bad in terms of getting on base in front of him, but 95+ RBI also seems very optimistic.

His statcast numbers are amazing despite the injury - 96th percentile exit velo, 90th percentile hard hit rate, 91st percentile xwOBA... I buy the power and I'll even buy him hitting .270.

So yes, I guess I am paying full price and expecting that he'll find a way to get the counting stats. I think 35 HR is realistic.

[chancellor]

Joncarlos has the stats that clearly indicate he can hit, and that his ISO looks pretty legit. In addition, he takes his walks, and his BABIP indicates there's not much downside. Given what's hitting behind him, he could be a beast in an OBP league.

All that said, I agree with Joncarlos on runs. I just don't see Bell scoring more than 70-75 runs.

[Ken]

My concerns with Bell would be that the 2nd half was an indication of pitchers adjusting to his tendencies rather than an injury issue. I've seen a few articles laying out the pretty dramatic change in pitches he saw. That would indicate that he was not able to adjust (yet). Why are we confident that he'll be able to get away from those 2nd half numbers now that there's a better book on him?

[chancellor]

My concerns with Bell would be that the 2nd half was an indication of pitchers adjusting to his tendencies rather than an injury issue. I've seen a few articles laying out the pretty dramatic change in pitches he saw. That would indicate that he was not able to adjust (yet). Why are we confident that he'll be able to get away from those 2nd half numbers now that there's a better book on him?

Interesting challenge. I put a lot more of it due to the injury - I could even see he was physically limited after the groin injury. But I'll do some more reading.

[Ken]

Interesting challenge. I put a lot more of it due to the injury - I could even see he was physically limited after the groin injury. But I'll do some more reading.

I've seen a couple of them, but here's one: https://www.si.com/mlb/pirates/news/...sburgh-pirates

I think Pauly referenced another one recently when we were discussing him for NFBC - I could be misremembering.

[bryanbutler]

Have a $6 Bell in RJEL (18 team mixed with OBA) in his option year ($5 per extension year). How many years should I extend? I'm thinking 2.

[joncarlos]

Have a $6 Bell in RJEL (18 team mixed with OBA) in his option year ($5 per extension year). How many years should I extend? I'm thinking 2.

In mixed I would go two. He can't go to a worse team.

I have him an NL only league and have to figure out what to do about his extension. It's nerve wracking.

[Ken]

My experience would be that this type rule works best:

2+ years extension is reserved for top ~30-35ish players
1 year extension for up to top 75-100
> 100, don't extend just take your profit if it's there

That puts Bell in a 1 year extension. He's not a superstar, but he's worth considering an extra year for the $5 bump.

[bryanbutler]

Thanks, JC, and Ken. Wish it was a consensus, since I have been waffling between 1 and 2, but at least I know I'm in the right ballpark .

[Ken]

Thanks, JC, and Ken. Wish it was a consensus, since I have been waffling between 1 and 2, but at least I know I'm in the right ballpark .

There are tiebreakers to consider.

How many keepers do you keep in this league? Are you more often finding yourself with too many keepers or too few?

[Gregg]

Thanks, JC, and Ken. Wish it was a consensus, since I have been waffling between 1 and 2, but at least I know I'm in the right ballpark .

I would go one year. It checks all of the boxes. I still should get plenty of profit. Decent keeper next year. Good trade value if I needed to. The year makes him trade able to everyone (no lame duck). If something happens to him I minimize the damage. $11 bucks is a nice salary.

[bryanbutler]

There are tiebreakers to consider.

How many keepers do you keep in this league? Are you more often finding yourself with too many keepers or too few?

10. Almost every GM keeps the full 10 every year. It's so heavily stars-and-scrubs that there are always cheap players at the end, and they often turn into good keepers.

[Ken]

10. Almost every GM keeps the full 10 every year. It's so heavily stars-and-scrubs that there are always cheap players at the end, and they often turn into good keepers.

1 year extension max then. You’ll have other options next year.

[joncarlos]

10. Almost every GM keeps the full 10 every year. It's so heavily stars-and-scrubs that there are always cheap players at the end, and they often turn into good keepers.

LOL I would almost go the other way then... if stars are going 60 bucks, what does 5 bucks matter one way or the other for an extension?