Who is the better keeper?

[cavebird]

Looking at some possible trade acquisitions, and for once, I don't have to hide it from league-mates. Our league has something called "contract renegotiations" where you can sign someone whose contract is expiring (once; after you do it, that contract is the end), and you get one for free, the second is $5 draft dollars, the third is $10, etc. I don't have a good use for mine, so I am looking at guys who other teams would not keep because they have to use their free one on someone else, or in one case, their first two for obvious guys. 5x5 roto, 16-team mixed, $300 auction budget; restrictions on dump trades ($350 in-season salary cap; 3-1 max for a keeper); weird rules (my main league) and rosters---13 hitters (standard with one catcher), 11 pitchers (6 SP, 5 RP, anyone close is SP only, nobody can be both); keepers are locked in your lineup unless on the IL or a long drug/domestic violence suspension. That makes starters overpriced at auction---you can't keep speculative cheap pitchers because having them locked in your lineup is absolutely brutal; a hitter is okay as long as he plays and accumulates counting stats.

Inflation this year will be way below normal due to a ton of expiring contracts that cannot be renewed and two teams leaving for personal reasons, not because their keeper lists sucks, and new teams get no keepers, so what would have been an $11 Bellinger, for example, is back in the auction.

My keeper list is second or third best, but the best keeper list is the best the league has had in a long time; way above everyone else, but more or less no starting pitching (his only SP keeper is Wheeler at $11). My keepers are limited but valuable: Acuna $11; Flaherty $11; Montas $6; Nick Anderson $6; Ian Kennedy $7; and two reserve round minor league keepers in Christian Pache and Ian Anderson. I do have one problem for the season in going for it---I don't have much in the way of keepers to move in a dump trade; with the way the dump trade rules are, Acuna is untradeable; I cannot possibly get enough value for him without busting the in-season salary cap in a 3-1 trade. Flaherty's contract expires this year and is unrenewable. If I make a trade for one of these guys, it would be one of the iffy closers or one of the "free" (i.e. reserve round) minor leaguers. The possibilities are:

Eduardo Rodriguez $11
Rendon $40
Javy Baez $35
Victor Robles $14
Ramon Laureano $11

The last two might not be available at all for a price I am willing to pay---they are both owned by the same guy (who has one free contract renegotiation and will likely pay the $5 penalty to keep both). Rodriguez probably has the most value of the rest, but he scares me locked in my lineup, although I would love to have of my rotation locked down going into the auction. The other two are probably available (they are the third and fourth renegotiations for the team), but really close to being at value. On the other hand, they are safe---no concern about them locked in my lineup when healthy. I'd never bench them anyway.

So, who does the pen think is the right target?

[Sour Masher]

I like them all. If you can get Laureano or Robles, that is great. If not, I would not be afraid to go after Eduardo. He finished strong down the stretch and I think this could be the year he has it figured wire to wire. I like him at that price more than the two big priced big boppers, especially given your needs. You need pitching. Erod is a good one at a good price. Go for it.

[cavebird]

Thanks for the take. E-Rod was the one I wanted to hear about most. Laureano and Robles are probably unavailable (I am doing my best, but I wouldn't trade them for what I would offer, so...) and the other two are more or less WYSIWYG guys. I do worry about E-Rod's WHIP, however. It's never been particularly great. And he has to face the Yankees' righty insane hitters too much. But he's just $11, and if he repeats last year, I would be more than happy.

[Sour Masher]

Thanks for the take. E-Rod was the one I wanted to hear about most. Laureano and Robles are probably unavailable (I am doing my best, but I wouldn't trade them for what I would offer, so...) and the other two are more or less WYSIWYG guys. I do worry about E-Rod's WHIP, however. It's never been particularly great. And he has to face the Yankees' righty insane hitters too much. But he's just $11, and if he repeats last year, I would be more than happy.

Yes, his division is brutal. His whip isn't great. But you are not in a spot to be picky on pitching. You need all the pitching cats at the moment, and Erod will get you wins and Ks, and I stand by thinking that at age 27, coming off his best year as one of the very rare 200 IP/200 K workhorses, and 19 wins, he is a good guy to get for 11 bucks. An era under 4 and a whip under 1.3 are possible as well. Even if both are a hair over, the wins and Ks will be there.

ETA: Really, I am more confident in his ability to progress than his health. His health history isn't great, but all pitchers are risky, and right around where he is at at age 27 in their development do they often run off 3-4 healthy years.

[cavebird]

Yeah, the health is another question, but I am not as worried about health (at $11, he can sit on my IL; that happens with pitching, period), as performance---being unlucky in that division can be brutal. But he is the upside guy. The question might be if I want upside. I have the second or third best keeper list, so I shouldn't, but so far behind first that I should.

[Sour Masher]

He is the only pitcher you listed. You need pitching. If there are other options, one may he safer, but Erod will be in my auction and I will keep bidding to my max for him. That is not as high praise as it sounds, as I am pretty broke . But you get the idea. You can pick apart any pitcher. Even three of the four elites have questions. I am keeping both Cole and Verlander and if I squint hard enough, both scare the heck out if me for their prices. Same for Scherzer. Or nearly any other arm. All are scary.

[Sour Masher]

And I know this has come up before, but with you all having 11 pitcher spots instead of 9, it makes pitching more valuable. And with a $300 cap too. Just prempting those who will see Erod at $11 in a 16 team mixed and not be all that excited. And you said the two cheap OFers are hard to get while Erod should be easy. It all adds up.

[cavebird]

Thanks for the thoughts. Much appreciated. No, no other pitching possibles in the picture.

[chancellor]

If Robles is out, I'd go ERod next as well. Fits your needs; with Flaherty you can take the WHIP risk, and if he stays healthy, the Red Sox will likely allow him to pitch deeper into games, which increases his chances for wins (both by going deeper AND involving less of the sketchy Sox RPs).

Given your needs, I'd even go for ERod over Laureano.

If the three lower priced options are not available, I'd go for Rendon. The Angels are clearly in the market for one more hitting upgrade, and I think they have the pieces to get it. That will put Rendon in a prime position hitting 3 or 4 in a stacked top of the lineup. Plus, if what I've read matches yours, Acuna will likely be hitting at the top of the lineup, which might limit his RBI chances. Pairing him up with a RBI producing stud seems like a logical move, even if Rendon's at about value.

[cavebird]

Well, I took the advice and almost had E-Rod, but then the guy who had him sort of (he's our league's Jack McKeon; he is involved in over half of the league's trades and once tried to make a trade from jail) for the purpose of moving him to me in a set of trades decided to do something else (a massive three-way trade with two others) so he went and signed E-Rod himself (for a $5 penalty now; he has a $6 Giolito who needs a renegotiation, so it is really a $10 penalty) and then that trade fell apart, but he had already used his second renegotiation and spent the penalty, so I am more or less out of it (he can move E-Rod on to many now that he's already paid the penalty and I don't have much to trade that I am willing to trade). I have no idea what to do now, but I am thinking realistically it will be Rendon, for the reasons chancellor stated; he compliments Acuna well.

So, in this new world, I'll add two other possibilities: a $16 Amed Rosario and a $29 Trevor Bauer. Those are my guys (no trade needed), but I don't think either is worth keeping at those prices (hence this post). Does the availability of those guy affect anyone's thoughts?

[chancellor]

No on Bauer, yes on Rosario assuming you use SB instead of SB-CS. Even if he'd regress a bit to, say, 12-70-70-18-.270, that's a pretty nice floor for $16. Plus, if he just does something similar to last year, say 15-75-75-20-.285, that sure looks like a win at $16 - especially with your keeper list. The Mets have let him run quite a bit for two years in a row with a mediocre success rate, so the Mets being the Mets, I doubt they'll change his opportunity to run.

[ThatRogue]

I can't recall if this is an OBP league or a BAvg league, but if BAvg, then I would take Baez at $35 over Rendon at $40. I think they'll provide overall value, but due to the scarcity of SBs and the cheaper salary, I'd prefer to have Baez. In an OBP league, Rendon is more valuable, so you'll have to decide if Rendon's superior OBP is at least $5 more valuable than Rendon's superior SBs.

[cavebird]

It's AVG. Standard 5x5. The problem with either Rendon or Baez is that I actually have to send a player for them, and they are both actually at value. Those types of players sometimes go for too much, sometimes they don't (Rendon went for $30 in 2018; he had a career year last year, but the skills really haven't changed). The reason I am down on Rosario is that he has produced $16 and $18 the last two years and is projected for more of the same. That's the level of player who often goes for a discount, especially at a position as deep as SS is this year, so I am pretty sure I could get him for below $20 at the auction and maybe as low $10, so keeping him at $16 doesn't seem to make much sense.

[cavebird]

And now the worm turns. Our Trader Jack ended up having his three-way trade fall through and nothing to do with E-Rod (he has four SP's already: Strasburg $37, Giolito $6, Paddack $14, Thor $26), so he traded him to me for Ian Anderson and Pache. Seemed silly to me to pay the money for the renegotiation and then just flip him to me anyway for not much more than I would have paid for him if I had used my free one. Now I am just down to marketing Rosario if I can get something I would keep or trying to add my renegotiation to someone else's trade for an upgrade. I imagine I'll just have to eat the renegotiation. Oh well, since I got who I wanted without using it, I guess I can't complain.