2k20: Juan Soto

[Ken]

I'm only comparing him to Trout regarding body type and hitting style, in response to Cavebird's comment. However, with as many times as he's on base, and as much as the Braves run, I wouldn't be surprised to see him wind up with 20 SBs.

It seems like you are vastly underestimating how unusual and difficult it is to steal 20 bases. Only 21 players stole 20 bases last year and basically all of them were burners.

All of them stole in the minors. As you would expect -- speed is a young man's tool. On average the 21 players stole a base every 3.1 games played in the minors. Ranging from 1 every 1.2 (Billy Hamilton) to 1 every 6 (Tommy Pham). Their raw steals in the minors ranged from 58 (Kolten Wong) to 396 (Hamilton).

Soto stole 9 bases in 122 games in the minors. Just 9. And at a rate of 1 every 13.5 games. So ~1/4 of the rate of the guys who stole 20 bases last year.

I guess his closest comp from that list is Wong who stole 58 in 313 games. But really, that's not a close comp, he was stealing at less than 1/2 the rate of Wong.

And Soto has just 17 steals in 266 games in the majors. So why would he suddenly start running more? You can make the argument that he's young and getting on base, but all those points were true the last two years, and he didn't run at nearly that pace. So why the change?

It may not be a surprise to you, but it would be a big surprise analytically if Soto were to come close to 20 SB. In reality he'll likely steal 8-12 like last year.

[ThatRogue]

It seems like you are vastly underestimating how unusual and difficult it is to steal 20 bases. Only 21 players stole 20 bases last year and basically all of them were burners.

All of them stole in the minors. As you would expect -- speed is a young man's tool. On average the 21 players stole a base every 3.1 games played in the minors. Ranging from 1 every 1.2 (Billy Hamilton) to 1 every 6 (Tommy Pham). Their raw steals in the minors ranged from 58 (Kolten Wong) to 396 (Hamilton).

Soto stole 9 bases in 122 games in the minors. Just 9. And at a rate of 1 every 13.5 games. So ~1/4 of the rate of the guys who stole 20 bases last year.

I guess his closest comp from that list is Wong who stole 58 in 313 games. But really, that's not a close comp, he was stealing at less than 1/2 the rate of Wong.

And Soto has just 17 steals in 266 games in the majors. So why would he suddenly start running more? You can make the argument that he's young and getting on base, but all those points were true the last two years, and he didn't run at nearly that pace. So why the change?

It may not be a surprise to you, but it would be a big surprise analytically if Soto were to come close to 20 SB. In reality he'll likely steal 8-12 like last year.

Analytically, I agree that there is no reason to project Soto for 20 SB. However, per the article, HE has said that he wants to steal more, especially if he is going to be walked so frequently...so Soto himself appears to want teams to pay for walking him. He's only 21 years old (youth is on his side). He was on first base 193 times last season, (not counting any times he reached 1B via fielder's choice...so opportunity is on his side). He has continued to improve his success rate (so he's getting better at identifying and taking advantage of opportunities).

In the same way that a pitcher can "suddenly" increase his strikeout rate, in excess of what is statistically probable, by developing another pitch...or a hitter drastically increases his HRs by changing his launch angle...I believe a runner can consciously improve his stolen base numbers by studying pitchers' tendencies and maximizing his opportunities. Do I bid on/draft him based on a projection of 20 SBs? No...for all the reasons you mentioned. Do I think he's going to do it this season? In light of what HE says he wants to improve, and considering how many times he's likely to be on base, I wouldn't be surprised.

[harmon]

The Nats lineup is also not as powerful losing Rendon and Harper over the last couple of years. The team may well look to be more of a running team this year.

[Ken]

Analytically, I agree that there is no reason to project Soto for 20 SB. However, per the article, HE has said that he wants to steal more, especially if he is going to be walked so frequently...so Soto himself appears to want teams to pay for walking him.

Fair enough. I take that as spring training cliche along with everyone being in the best shape of their life, but it's certainly possible.

[cavebird]

Fair enough. I take that as spring training cliche along with everyone being in the best shape of their life, but it's certainly possible.

I agree with Ken. Trout was a "thick body" with crazy good defense in center; Soto is left field only and crappy defense. No comparison. Soto is a Miggy kind of star. Not a Trout---but then again, who is? Trout is more or less the best of Acuna and Soto combined with better defense.