Originally posted by chancellor
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AL keepers advice - Value studs, sketchy closers, or prospect question marks?
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Originally posted by Gregg View PostRobles has increased his velocity 2mph over the last two years. Add the comments of Chance and JC to your own and it is a great case to keep Robles. $8 closers are cheap no matter how you slice it. In a half a year Robles will get more save chances than Jimenez does all year (and I like closers on crappy teams).
It you had one more keeper spot I would add Jimenez. I would see if I could package Jimenez and Urshela for a better keeper.
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Originally posted by chancellor View PostWell, in this case, Robles doesn't likely carry the risk of being traded by a team in rebuild mode, so I'd posit that his chances of being high value relative to Jimenez are notably better.
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Originally posted by Art Vandelay View Posthow bad was Detroit last year? I ask because shane green was leading the world in converted saves when traded
** I realize this is anecdotal and there are examples on the other side though!
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Originally posted by Art Vandelay View PostJimenez is a free agent after the 2023 season (four seasons away)I'm just here for the baseball.
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Originally posted by chancellor View PostBut becomes arb eligible next year. If he's an "established closer", that'll drive his number up significantly. And Detroit has already established they'll trade a closer doing really well if they like the return.
- skills: advantage ???
- team: advantage Robles
- price: advantage Jimenez
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Originally posted by SlideRule View PostI guess my point was, there is a case for both Jimenez and Robles to be trade risks in 2020, and I don't think there's much difference in that element of fantasy "risk" between them. So absent that, there's:
- skills: advantage ???
- team: advantage Robles
- price: advantage Jimenez
Winning perctange of the team only explains <10% of variance in saves.
Bad teams don't blow you out often, so when they win, there's often a save involved.
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Originally posted by SlideRule View PostI guess my point was, there is a case for both Jimenez and Robles to be trade risks in 2020, and I don't think there's much difference in that element of fantasy "risk" between them. So absent that, there's:
- skills: advantage ???
- team: advantage Robles
- price: advantage Jimenez
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Originally posted by Ken View PostThis is where I completely disagree. When the *best* closer going into 2019 wasn't able to keep his job, and that's just one example of many over the years, the difference between a tier 4 closer and a tier 6 closer is minimus. Give me the tier 6 closer and the extra $5 every time. Every time. Why would I want to spend $5 more on a guy who is just as likely to be worth $0 as the other one?
Our league didn't fall for Treinen's one good year. He went for $14 in our auction AL only. The money was spent on the real elite closers with Osuna going for 27, Chapman 26, and a few others going in the 20's.
Robles is going to have to be pretty bad not to earn $8 this year. While I think Jimenez will also earn his keep. I prefer Robles and believe he will out earn Jimenez this year for the reasons I have already given.
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Originally posted by Gregg View PostI am pretty sure you do not use one year of stats to determine who is the "best" at anything in our game. We have talk about regression all the time.
Treinen was the first closer drafted in many drafts last year. But if you are getting hung up on just Treinen. The concept is that closers are extremely volatile
Originally posted by Gregg View Post
Robles is going to have to be pretty bad not to earn $8 this year. While I think Jimenez will also earn his keep. I prefer Robles and believe he will out earn Jimenez this year for the reasons I have already given.
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Originally posted by SlideRule View PostI guess my point was, there is a case for both Jimenez and Robles to be trade risks in 2020, and I don't think there's much difference in that element of fantasy "risk" between them. So absent that, there's:
- skills: advantage ???
- team: advantage Robles
- price: advantage Jimenez
I'm just here for the baseball.
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Originally posted by chancellor View PostIf you think Robles and Jimenez are equal trade risks, you keep Jimenez and the $5. I think you're wrong on that assessment - the Angels don't sign Rendon, trade two prospects and Rengifo to get Joc and a SP upgrade and then do a rebuild. The Tigers, OTOH, are fully in rebuild mode, and have already proven they'll deal their closer if they get value they're looking for.
1) I think the fact that DET is NOT going to contend may make it more likely they hold onto and develop a young closer, and
2) If LAA is in the playoff hunt and Robles isn’t quite as good as we’re expecting him to be they could easily go out and get a new closer, relegating Robles to the 8th.
I mean, we can speculate a lot about closer chaos. Now watch the Angels go out and trade for a breakout dominant Jimenez at the all-star break to replace a faltering Robles.Last edited by SlideRule; 02-09-2020, 05:22 PM.
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Amusingly pursuant to this conversation, MLB.com has a closer rankings article now that says this re: Jimenez"
"13) Tigers -- Joe Jiménez, RHP: The Tigers’ lone All-Star in 2019 finally earned the closer’s job after Detroit traded Shane Greene, and he cemented a hold on the position. Until they trade him too."
Last week, the excellent beat reporters at MLB.com projected the likely closer for each team in Major League Baseball. Not all of those guys will end the season as the closer, and these days, you can’t even be sure all of them will start the season as the closer. And
Also FWIW, it ranks Jimenez 13th and Robles 18th.
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