NL Starting Pitchers Review

[Sharky]

Interesting take on Woodruff (buying if you don’t have a good keeper list). In my case I have a good keeper list but also have Woodruff at $9 (in addition to two stronger SPs). So on the one hand I can afford the downside risk in pursuit of the upside; on the other I don’t need to bear that downside risk. I like your take on it; might look to flip him.

[Hammer]

great writeup Chance.

One nit to pick regarding Folty. You mentioned a 7.5 k9. Not sure the time you were referring to but in his sucky 2019 he struck out 150 in 151 IP.

[chancellor]

great writeup Chance.

One nit to pick regarding Folty. You mentioned a 7.5 k9. Not sure the time you were referring to but in his sucky 2019 he struck out 150 in 151 IP.

Thanks - I think he had only 117 IP in Atlanta last year. But my math was wrong - now that I looked at it again, it's 8K/9 in his time in the bigs.

Sharky - Mind you, it's tough overcoming my Brewer homerism. On one hand. Woodruff's stuff is for real, and he can both control and dominate in the top of the zone. OTOH, he's just not been durable. I love him at $9, but I'd be willing to listen to offers if someone gave me the world...or at least half.

[Ken]

Sharky - Mind you, it's tough overcoming my Brewer homerism. On one hand. Woodruff's stuff is for real, and he can both control and dominate in the top of the zone. OTOH, he's just not been durable. I love him at $9, but I'd be willing to listen to offers if someone gave me the world...or at least half.

I doubt you would get an overpay on Woodruff though. His perceived value is not as high as his actual value in my experience.

So I'd go the opposite way and say if you have him at $9, keep him rather than selling for less than full value.

[chancellor]

I've been thinking about Sour Masher's earlier question, and would like to get some input from all of you who have more experience in NL only leagues than I do (I've only done them for about 6-7 years now). Who do you think will be available at or near endgame prices that have best shots of delivering value among starting pitchers or those that have a good shot at becoming starting pitchers? My list is short - Nick Pivetta was a good call, I like Austin Voth in Washington...and, well...

[Hammer]

a few endgamers I like

Anthony Desclafani- Finally showed he can be a value add when he is healthy.
Johnny Cueto- Total wild card and name recognition may bump him a buck or two but he knows how to pitch and is in a pitchers park.
Kevin Gausman- Move to NL and SF could pay nicely.

[Sour Masher]

a few endgamers I like

Anthony Desclafani- Finally showed he can be a value add when he is healthy.
Johnny Cueto- Total wild card and name recognition may bump him a buck or two but he knows how to pitch and is in a pitchers park.
Kevin Gausman- Move to NL and SF could pay nicely.

All good names, I think. I agree Cueto's name and some early sleeper hype may push him out of my comfort zone. Desclafani seems like the unsexy type of player that will be cheap even if he does get some sleeper hype. I've been a sucker for Gausman in the past, and I've sworn him off, but you are right, he is in a good spot.

[harmon]

Endgamers or near endgamers

Couple of Zachs; Eflin and Davies.

Eflin looked like a different guy the last couple of months. I remember hearing something about him going back to what worked for him in the past and ditching some analytics based advice.

Davies just seems like he's in a good place now. Petco vs Miller Park could be substantial for him. Over the last 3 years his ERA is 5.04 at Miller and 2.71 away. Age 27 entering his 5th season, things to like here.

[NL Only]

Not sure about the hype on the below guys...and this is not a ranking, just some names and a few thoughts in no particular order.

Potential end game types - I want Pivetta, maybe Smyly --- and any of Burnes, Gonsolin & F Peralta if it's expected that they will get 10+ starts:

Brewers: Lindblom, F Peralta and Burnes ...what if Lauer is bad and Anderson is hurt? Then maybe they all get some turns
Giants: Smyly, Beede and Logan Webb
LA: Gonsolin
Phillies: Pivetta
Marlins: Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez (with fences moving in he may be too risky) and Yamamoto


Potentially undervalued -- I expect to roster several of them, depending on price. Eflin and Porcello are the least exciting so might be the cheapest:

Houser - maybe won't come cheap if the sharps are in on him
Arrieta - finally healthy? Most seem to be out on him and maybe rightly so but then again if it really was the bone spurs making him suck...could he rebound to be a nice #3 starter?
Porcello - could put up 2018 type numbers in the NL and with the home park to help suppress HRs
Caleb Smith - if hip is fully healed should be solid but with wins tough to come by, his perceived value may be down
Mitch Keller - post-hype? and same potential problem with Pirates as Smith has with the Marlins re: run support/wins
Stroman - if he continues with his good cutter from last season and re-ups slider usage and uses fewer sinkers, could be very nice this season. When looking at his mix, it seems like some cutters and/or sliders were classified as curves last year - regardless he has good breaking pitches
Eflin - was great last year when the pitching coach wasn't messing with him to throw more 4 seamers; has issues vs left-handed batters and doesn't get a lot of Ks but still, he's good

[Judge Jude]

I am waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay behind on all of this, but good stuff here, fellas!

I'll 'get there' by the end of March. I have a wacky stable of SP options in my signature.........

[cavebird]

a few endgamers I like

Anthony Desclafani- Finally showed he can be a value add when he is healthy.
Johnny Cueto- Total wild card and name recognition may bump him a buck or two but he knows how to pitch and is in a pitchers park.
Kevin Gausman- Move to NL and SF could pay nicely.

Gausman was in the NL all of 2019, too (traded to the NL in 2018). I don't trust him in the slightest, despite the stuff.

[chancellor]

Bump.

[Judge Jude]

I think the Marlins can win 70 games, if not 75, with an improved offense and their crop of promising SPs.

so I'd focus on that whole group, as much as any teams in MLB. they should all come cheap, depending on your parameters, and they have enough options that the ones who claim roles might surprise.

[cavebird]

Gausman was in the NL all of 2019, too (traded to the NL in 2018). I don't trust him in the slightest, despite the stuff.

Okay, I don't trust Gausman because he missed Urena. That's enough to be on my blacklist forever. We were only going to ever get one shot, and he threw it behind him.

[revo]

Great stuff, Chance! This is print and use material.