Strategy: Elite Prospets or Post Hype Sleepers

[cavebird]

I don't think there is a significant difference between the two supposed groups. What's the difference between a top prospect who has a tough rookie year and a post-hype sleeper? Some keep the hype despite poor results at first---King Felix is a great example. Pitchers of all types are hell in fantasy---and real baseball.

[Sharky]

Interesting thread! More narrowly, I have MacKenzie Gore. He is “free” to keep as long as he starts in the minors, but he is option year already. So I get one free year or would need to sign him to a two-year contract now at $10. Is there any circumstance in which you sign him now? What’s his best case production for 2020?

These sorts of debates usually put me firmly in the TINSTAAP camp.

[Sour Masher]

Interesting thread! More narrowly, I have MacKenzie Gore. He is “free” to keep as long as he starts in the minors, but he is option year already. So I get one free year or would need to sign him to a two-year contract now at $10. Is there any circumstance in which you sign him now? What’s his best case production for 2020?

These sorts of debates usually put me firmly in the TINSTAAP camp.

I suspect most will tell you to take the free ride in 2020, but I would extend under one condition--that you are confident you can trade him for lot. In my league, I know Gore, who is universally seen as the best pitching prospect in baseball, and one of the safest, has high value. I know that I would be able to trade Gore for at least $20 in value at some point during the year. So, if I extend him, I am never paying that yeaer 2 $10, and I know I can trade him for more than $20 in value. Heck see what you can get pre-auction. You may be surprised at what he could net you.

[Ken]

I don't think there is a significant difference between the two supposed groups. What's the difference between a top prospect who has a tough rookie year and a post-hype sleeper?

Exactly.

But Castillo is a "clear cut post hype" apparently. *eye-roll*

[Gregg]

I don't think there is a significant difference between the two supposed groups. What's the difference between a top prospect who has a tough rookie year and a post-hype sleeper? Some keep the hype despite poor results at first---King Felix is a great example. Pitchers of all types are hell in fantasy---and real baseball.

For me when a top pitching prospect has a tough rookie year he becomes the post-hype sleeper. He also loses value.

The elite prospect retains value until he proves that he may not be elite. My only leagues do not value elite pitching prospects as much as hitting prospects. Gore is 10F in my NL only 5x5 12 teams. That means he was picked in the reserve draft between the 2nd round and 7th round. If he stinks when he comes up he will be hard to give away as a 10 dollar keeper against a $260 budget. If he was a $2 pick he could be kept or have value. Right now because he is elite, he is almost untouchable for the current owner.

So if Gore stinks and goes back in the 2021 auction I would then go to about $5 depending on auction flow. I consider this a post hype sleeper move. I like it but consider this to be much less valuable then Elite prospects. I usually trade my elite pitching prospects long before they come up.