NL keepers - another one

[NL Only]

Please pick 2 of 3 (each can be kept at below price for 2020 & 2021) -- 5x5 with OBP instead of AVG and Wins + QS instead of Wins. It's a keep 3 league with Tatis as the other one so team needs is not a factor. Looking for best talent/stats for next 2 years.

Soroka $2
Kingery $3
Woodruff $7

[scottw]

Please pick 2 of 3 (each can be kept at below price for 2020 & 2021) -- 5x5 with OBP instead of AVG and Wins + QS instead of Wins. It's a keep 3 league with Tatis as the other one so team needs is not a factor. Looking for best talent/stats for next 2 years.

Soroka $2
Kingery $3
Woodruff $7

Woodruff
Kingery

[Ken]

Soroka
Woodruff

[chancellor]

Soroka
Woodruff

Yupper.

[cavebird]

Any other options?

[Ken]

Any other options?

well technically Soroka/Kingery is the only other option, but I think Woodruff > Kingery.

[NL Only]

Any other options?

Yes but I figured they were not in the running - what do you think?

Albies $25
Tyler O'Neill $5
Kimbrel $6
Paddack $11

[Ken]

Yes but I figured they were not in the running - what do you think?

Albies $25
Tyler O'Neill $5
Kimbrel $6
Paddack $11

Woah!

Paddack definitely in.
And Albies should have been a contender if there's any inflation.

Paddack/Soroka for me.

[chancellor]

I'm sticking with Soroka/Woodruff. Here's my logic:

Paddack - 2 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 3.33/3.95/4.05 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 0.98 WHIP
Woodruff - 2.2 BB/9, 10.6 K/9 3.62/3.01/3.36, 1.14 WHIP
Soroka - 2.1 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 2.68/3,45/3.85, 1.11 WHIP

Depends on how you like/believe in FIP/xFIP, but for an extra 4 bucks and some K's, I'll take Woodruff. None are terrible choices. You could make a good argument that there's 9 bucks in value with the higher K's and lower WHIP from Paddack to Soroka, too.

[Ken]

I'm sticking with Soroka/Woodruff. Here's my logic:

Paddack - 2 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 3.33/3.95/4.05 ERA/FIP/xFIP, 0.98 WHIP
Woodruff - 2.2 BB/9, 10.6 K/9 3.62/3.01/3.36, 1.14 WHIP
Soroka - 2.1 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 2.68/3,45/3.85, 1.11 WHIP

Depends on how you like/believe in FIP/xFIP, but for an extra 4 bucks and some K's, I'll take Woodruff. None are terrible choices. You could make a good argument that there's 9 bucks in value with the higher K's and lower WHIP from Paddack to Soroka, too.

That's fair - I like both Paddack and Woodruff.

I think Paddack is the upside play with a high floor though. Woodruff is more stable, but upside is limited. Woodruff has pitched 120 IP the last two years, I don't see that skyrocketting.

With Paddack I think there's a next step for him to take. If you look at his minor league track record he was able to limit the walks even further - 0.8 BB/9 in 2018. If he can get to that type range he looks a lot like Shane Bieber. And for just $4 I'm buying that upside over Woodruff (and again I really like Woodruff too).

[Ken]

This comes with the normal grain of salt, but NFBC drafts are picking Paddack 50 spots in front of Woodruff. That's a $8 difference (although make sure you keep in mind these are 15 team mixed leagues).

[TS Garp]

That's fair - I like both Paddack and Woodruff.

I think Paddack is the upside play with a high floor though. Woodruff is more stable, but upside is limited. Woodruff has pitched 120 IP the last two years, I don't see that skyrocketting.

With Paddack I think there's a next step for him to take. If you look at his minor league track record he was able to limit the walks even further - 0.8 BB/9 in 2018. If he can get to that type range he looks a lot like Shane Bieber. And for just $4 I'm buying that upside over Woodruff (and again I really like Woodruff too).

I actually think Woodruff has a ceiling that's close to Paddack but the innings are a concern (then again, Paddack hasn't exactly been a workhorse, either...). With Paddack, you get an incredible floor/ceiling combo in WHIP that's very enticing. The Padres haven't exactly done the best job of turning their better starters into aces in the last few years but perhaps that will change with the new coaching staff.

[cavebird]

I'd go with Paddack/Soroka for safety. Woodruff's health/innings worry me. I like the idea of Albies, but with only three keepers, I doubt inflation is high enough for Albies to be a huge value at $25.

[NL Only]

For some reason on a performance level I trust Soroka (despite the lower K rate) and Woodruff more than Paddack. Looking at ADP - the crowd is higher on Paddack as noted.
Early rankings at The Athletic have them 6 (Paddack), 11 (Woodruff) and 15 (Soroka) among NL starters. Early Sporer list at Fangraphs has them 13 (Woodruff), 15 (Soroka) and 16 (Paddack).
I will be watching spring training closely for health and maybe improvement in Paddack's curve. But it's not going to help much as I have to decide by 3/07.