2K20: Wil Myers

[revo]

I'm trying to figure out exactly what happened to Wil Myers in 2019. Based on his pre-draft price, he was a major disappointment, but he did end up with 18 HRs & 16 SBs, which was still helpful to the bottom line.

He appeared in 155 games, yet only received 435 ABs. In late-June and July, he was relegated mainly to a pinch-hitting role as his BA slithered down to Mendoza territory. If you owned him and didn't cut bait by then, his value went right into the tank. He bounced back a bit in September, but as the Padres shuffled around their OFers -- and are still eagerly taking applications to extricate themselves from Myers' services -- and now have Trent Grisham lurking, how high are you on Myers in '20? STEAMER isn't very high on him, projecting 321 ABs. B-R.com has him at 421. Obviously, this assumes he remains on the Padres, and it's certainly possible he's elsewhere at some point soon.

He's still a good power/speed source, and his ADP of 267 seems perfectly balanced between getting a steal or getting a player who you're going to give up on quickly.

If I can land him in the 280-300 range, he becomes more of a steal and less of a waste of a roster spot. Not sure I'd go higher than $9 or so in an auction setting.

[kldub4life]

Here is an article from FanGraphs from the middle of last year that dealt with Myers which highlights him selling out and swinging hard and the ramifications to his K% and BABIP.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-the-heck-wil-myers/

[joncarlos]

You mean future Red Sock Wil Myers?

[GwynnInTheHall]

You mean future Red Sock Wil Myers?

I LOVE that Idea...……..

cuz Betts will be a Padre

[Ken]

I LOVE that Idea...……..

cuz Betts will be a Padre

You're going to hate it when you find out they threw in Tatis to even it out

[GwynnInTheHall]

You're going to hate it when you find out they threw in Tatis to even it out

I'd demand a refund on my new Brown pinstriped Away Jersey with El Nino on it!!

And cry a lot.

Maybe not a lot, but some.

OK, A lot.

[Ken]

I'd demand a refund on my new Brown pinstriped Away Jersey with El Nino on it!!

I gotta admit, that sounds like a kick ass jersey.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I gotta admit, that sounds like a kick ass jersey.

SDUni.jpg

Tatis Jr is in the Road Pinstripes. Machado Home Pinstripes. Hosmer Alt.

[cleo]

I think that any MLB team that trades for Betts should have their GM fired. Betts is not worth the $27m he is owed for 2020, AND the RS want multi top level prospects, AND the RS want to include David Price in the deal???

[chancellor]

I think that any MLB team that trades for Betts should have their GM fired. Betts is not worth the $27m he is owed for 2020, AND the RS want multi top level prospects, AND the RS want to include David Price in the deal???

If I'm a team that needs a key OF piece to make a playoff run, I'd happily pay Betts $27 mil for one year. And I'd give up one good prospect to do it. But a second high-level prospect and the Price contract....no way. In fairness to the Red Sox, this is likely their opening gambit.

[Sour Masher]

I think that any MLB team that trades for Betts should have their GM fired. Betts is not worth the $27m he is owed for 2020, AND the RS want multi top level prospects, AND the RS want to include David Price in the deal???

Uh, yeah he is. Any GM that trades Betts should be fired. Every team brings in 100s of millions in revenue. Even small market teams. Even if they want to go cheap with the rest of the roster, to have a face of the franchise as great and as joyous on the field as Betts or Lindor should not be given up for anything. The fact that those two might get dealt is dumbfounding to me. They check every single box you want for that one player that is the heart of your team for fans.

[Ken]

Yeah, Betts was worth $90M+ and $60M+ the last two years. I don’t know how anyone can think he is not worth $27M?

[chancellor]

Uh, yeah he is. Any GM that trades Betts should be fired. Every team brings in 100s of millions in revenue. Even small market teams. Even if they want to go cheap with the rest of the roster, to have a face of the franchise as great and as joyous on the field as Betts or Lindor should not be given up for anything. The fact that those two might get dealt is dumbfounding to me. They check every single box you want for that one player that is the heart of your team for fans.

I can't agree with that. Depending on whose metrics are used, the Brewers, who have been a pretty successful organization the past three years, brought in $250 - 300 MM in revenue in 2018. Player payroll last year alone was about $123 MM. Add in management expenses, minor league costs, scouting costs, field/stadium costs, and a whole host of other costs in running a team and I'd not be surprised to find out owner Mark Attanasio barely broke even. Or even lost money. Changing payroll structure for the Brewers was a must for two reasons: first, an owner expects some level of return from their investment; second, if the Brewers can free up enough payroll, they might be able to make a run at Yelich. So, no, I don't necessarily agree that smaller market teams can just spend nearly unlimited money to keep star players moving into free agency. I'd expect any GM of a team with more limited revenue to critically investigate whether they can keep a star player moving to free agency, given the cost, whether they should keep that player, and what they could get on the open market for certain players IF their team is also not playoff competitive. I'd posit getting a team to a World Series is worth a fair amount of money and worth the risk of holding star players for another year.

Now, the Red Sox are a different animal. But maybe they have a low degree of confidence they can sign Betts in free agency. Maybe they're looking at their team as composed today as not having a competitive chance of winning the AL. There's other legitimate maybes. There's also the possibility that the owner is a greedy pig, and will do anything to cut costs, get below the luxury tax, and make another $100 mil. Maybe it's some of all of the above. But a GM who could trade Betts, unload the Price albatross contract, and get two high-level prospects....yeah, we disagree. With the right prospects, I think the GM has to at least seriously consider that deal.

[Sour Masher]

I do not know if we disagree yet, because you shifted the convo away from the point I was trying to make. I was not suggesting that small market teams should keep their aging stars (plural) once they get those fat deals. By that time, you are overpaying for their production. I was specifically talking about just two players--Betts and Lindor, who I think are not only two of the top 10 players in baseball, and will be for several more years, but my top two guys I'd want to be the face of my franchise. They are not just elite players. They are what you want for your fan base. They are the sorts of players I'd bring my kids to see, even if the team sucks. They are good dudes, who love the game and play it at the highest level. And by all accounts are great teammates. Those two guys, and maybe 2 or 3 more in all of baseball, at their age, production level, and what they bring all around, that is why I am talking about making sure you keep. I think it makes baseball sense and business sense.

Also, getting abck too revenue for the team Betts is on, the Red Sox specifically made $516 million in revenue in 2018.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Let me clarify.

The deal being talked about from what we've been told here in San Diego is this:

Betts for Myers, Lucchesi, Quantrill, Baez and Campusano.

Padres aren't taking Price to get Betts.