RJEL Keepers - seeking opinions

[Teenwolf]

I joined RJEL last year, and was quite unprepared for the format, after many years as an Only league guy, but I committed to rebuilding so I didn't mind being out of my depth. 18 teams, 5x5 with OBP instead of BA, 1 catcher, 2 Util. I took over a terrible team of major league keepers, but I was gifted Wander Franco and Adell to build around. I drafted and traded for some good building blocks, but I feel the back end of my keeper list is still weak. I'm wondering if I should deal Adell to upgrade the 8-10 spots. I'm feeling ok on my offense, nice mix of OBP, HR, SB for $40 spread across 6 players. I like having Nick Solak on the farm, ready to step into my MI slot right away, allowing me to allocate $1 to MI, and spread wealth at the auction. I prefer this approach to keeping Solak as a major leaguer, unless I trade for extra farm guys and get squeezed.

Would you extend Voit to $7? I was thinking it was an automatic yes, but I'm a little hesitant. I guess my thinking is that it's always a cheap buyout if he goes south, but the value of X players seems higher with so much of the title chase based on fitting under the salary cap, so I worry about extending any CI guy that isn't a monster producer.

Biggio $5A
Voit $2 OPT
Aquino $5B
JD Davis $2B
T. Anderson $18 OPT
Kingery $8B
Joe Jiminez $5B
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M. Boyd $9B (I lean towards keeping, as FIP and xFIP predict a bit better ERA luck, and his low BB rate provides a decent floor. Added to the 238 K's, and he's at least a decent bulk guy if I pair him with better ratios elsewhere)
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(these guys seem about at value you'd pay at auction)
Z. Plesac $5B
N. Goodrum $8B
Stroman $9B
C. Frazier $4B

FARM (8 keepers, 6 draft picks, 15 slots)

W. Franco $5 (SS, TB)
J. Adell $6 (OF, LAA)
T. Casas $4 (1B, BOS)
J. Downs $2 (SS, LAD)
N. Solak $2 (2B, TEX)
J. Bart $6 (C, SF)
D. Varsho $2 (C, ARI)
J. Adams $5 (OF, LAA)
~~~~~~~~~

Thoughts?

[The Dane]

Don't deal Adell. No way. If you could find a taker for Bart or Varsho, I'd go that way instead. In this format, you'll never need two big-bat catching prospects. See what you could get. I like your minor leaguers a lot.

Your list is pretty much in the order I'd rank them. I wouldn't extend Voit, but then, I rarely extend anyone. Your hitters are all below value, but are also kinda ho-hum sorts of bats, with the exception of Biggio maybe.

[Gregg]

I like the K's Boyd brings for 9 bucks. I would keep him.

Agree with Dane I am not trading Adell.

I am disagreeing with him on Voit. I would give the year extension. I like his power and OBP. I also think at $7 with the extra year you open up trade possibilities to everyone for competing to rebuilding.

[Teenwolf]

I would be okay with dealing Joey Bart $6 and banking on Varsho $2, but I feel like nobody pays much for catchers in this format, given that the bar is so high to become a keeper as a catcher in this format. I like both Bart and Varsho, but I feel like Varsho's added 15-20 SB potential, as well as strong discipline rates, and cheaper salary than Bart give him slightly better fantasy earning potential. I also like that Carson Kelly will likely force Varsho into gaining OF eligibility to increase flexibility.

Who would you deal to upgrade the 9/10 keeper slots? I have a few offers, able to acquire $46 Verlander, but I feel like I need some cheap good SP's for a $46 anchor to make sense. I would only fill one of those 9/10 slots with a $46 stud if I had the surrounding squad to win, and I'm not there yet.

[Gregg]

I think Verlander makes your Boyd look better. That is a lot of k's.

There is always a market after the auction for a top Pitcher if you need to trade him. I myself would not want to trade Adell or Franco for him. I would certainly try to get him depending on what I have to give up.

[Andrewski]

I think Verlander makes your Boyd look better. That is a lot of k's.

There is always a market after the auction for a top Pitcher if you need to trade him. I myself would not want to trade Adell or Franco for him. I would certainly try to get him depending on what I have to give up.

I agree.

[chancellor]

Like your keepers; I think Voit's the guy at 1B for the Yankees, so I'd extend the one year.

I agree with Gregg on getting Verlander - $46 for him in this format is pretty good, and he pairs up well with Boyd.

I have a minor disagreement with The Dane and Gregg (which is dangerous, these two are verrrrry sharp), but I'd be willing to shop Adell. A $46 Verlander, no way. But if someone ponies up a much-better value stud...yeah, I'd listen.

[The Dane]

Here's why I don't trade Adell, in most situations:

When it comes to top commodities (studs, aces, elite prospects), there's HUGE variances in value and return. For them, not only does the needle move up and down, but it moves farther. One injury or poor season and a top guy's value can move, easily, $20 down. A lower-end player's needle moves up and down in the same way, but we're only talking a few bucks. In my opinion, the guys who win this game more often are the ones that buy low and sell high more often and better than anyone else. Each of those transactions add up to value on the roster which a good owner can turn into championships.

So, when I look at Adell, I see -arguably- the most valuable prospect in all of MLB. His upside is world-beater and there's only ever a few of those guys in the game at a time. That said, he's coming off injury, and he took some lumps at AAA. So, while his value is really high right now, I still don't think it's anywhere near where it should be. If he goes on a tear and everyone is talking about him, THEN you can trade him, because then you'll max out what can be had for him. Right now, it feels like he's in a pack of top prospects and I don't think you can get full value. As someone really high on Adell, now's the time I would be looking to acquire him, because owners might be thinking he's just one of the guys instead of being The Man.

Don't sell. I think his stock has a lot more room to rise.

Of course, if someone wants to give you their whole team and set you up for a dynasty of championships, go for it. Everyone is on the block, for the right price.

[Andrewski]

A $46 Verlander, no way. But if someone ponies up a much-better value stud...yeah, I'd listen.

To be clear, the offer for him wasn't just Verlander. I may be dumb, but I am not THAT dumb.

[joncarlos]

Voit has a lot of trade value as a $2x player who works nicely under the cap. Will whatever he returns in trade be more valuable than a $7 Voit for 2021? That's the question.

Personally, I really like him, but with Andujar looming, is he a full-timer? I think he gets enough ABs to be worth it. I'd probably roll the dice and extend him.

[Ken]

I would not extend Voit, I'd take the profit. Extensions are for stars, Voit can be a really good asset, but he's not a star.

[Teenwolf]

Don't deal Adell. No way. If you could find a taker for Bart or Varsho, I'd go that way instead. In this format, you'll never need two big-bat catching prospects. See what you could get. I like your minor leaguers a lot.

Your list is pretty much in the order I'd rank them. I wouldn't extend Voit, but then, I rarely extend anyone. Your hitters are all below value, but are also kinda ho-hum sorts of bats, with the exception of Biggio maybe.

Well, I made a few moves.

Traded Tim Anderson $18 OPT for Yandy Diaz $8B. I doubt most folks will like that one, but I wanted to get rid of Anderson's potential OBP liability, still hasn't learned to take a walk. I know Yandy only played 1/2 the season, but I love his batting metrics generally, and despite losing 20-25 SB, I gain a safer OBP play with more power ceiling, and $10 extra for the draft.

Secondly, I dealt Joey Bart for C. Walker $8B + Nimmo $2 OPT + A. Medina (farm) + 6th rd pick.

Last year I graduated F. Mejia for the Padres as a 1st rounder, $6. Given his relatively low BB rate, and power suppression of Petco, I'm probably tossing him back into the draft. This format just doesn't pay for catchers. So given my early experiences with catchers, I figured Bart was the perfect candidate to deal, with Varsho as my preferred guy anyway, despite Bart's much higher prospect pedigree.

I think it retains what The Dane said, "hitters all below value but also kinda ho-hum sorts of bats". But at $45 for 8 bats with strong OBP, i like my potential to build around it at auction. For the record, I was much higher on Christian Walker $8 B than i was about Nimmo $2. As a low power, almost zero speed guy, Nimmo's ceiling is very limited. But his 15%+ BB rate gives him a very high floor, projecting a .360 to .400 OBP, 12 HR, 40 RBI, 90 R, 5 SB. Not very exciting, but will earn a few bucks profit on the $2X.

Keepers updated:

1B Voit $7 ('21)
2B Biggio $5 A
3B/1B Y. Diaz $8 B
3B/OF JD Davis $2 B
1B C. Walker $8 B
OF A. Aquino $5 B
OF/3B S. Kingery $8 B
OF B. Nimmo $2 X
CP J. Jiminez $5 B
~~~~~~~~~~~
10 - M. Boyd $9 B (not sure I trust him. Projection systems sure don't like him much)
J. DeGrom $53 B (Verlander $46 fetched trade value. Should I just keep Degrom for the extra $7?)
N. Goodrum $8 B (I have a need for a SS, and his 15 SB would likely cost more than $8 at auction, but it really lowers the ceiling on my bats overall.)
Mejia $6 A (1st year contract, and higher ceiling than most catchers. But in an 18 team, 1 catcher league, he probably ranks towards the bottom of the 18 best catchers, so it's hard to see him fetching more than $6 in the draft, despite his youth and prospect pedigree.)

[Sour Masher]

I'm with you on the Yandy trade. I'll take Yandy and the $10 for Tim Anderson in an OBP league. But I like Yandy. I think what he showed last year was real.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Mejia should be dropped. I love the guy, but he won't get FT ABs unless his work behind the plate improves. In a 2CA league, yes, but not in RJEL.

[Ken]

If you don't like Boyd, find a way to trade him, he belongs on a roster at that price