Arron Hicks.....TJ Surgery

[GwynnInTheHall]

I'm sure this has been posted before--but my question is this--Will he be worth $1 in 2020? See I traded for him during last years rebuild and have him at $6-must keep through 2020. To drop him costs $5 of my budget going into the auction. So should I keep him, it costs me a net $1

Will his possible return from TJ in August warrant keeping him at a buck or should I toss him back and play dollar days with my spare dollar?

I have plenty of other possible keepers I could roster in his place.

[Sour Masher]

I'm stuck with him, as I extended him, and in our league, not only do we have to pay for drops, we lose the keeper spot. I'm hoping to be able to dump him to the Yankees fan in my league. I will probably have to throw in a good prospect just to get rid of him. I would not keep him if I were you and had other keeper options, and dropping him opens up another spot.

[Judge Jude]

I'm not up to reprising my full rant on the rampant overuse of contract extensions - my favorites being the ones that suck every ounce of profit out of a guy just to own him for more years.

Shorter version: Extend players only very rarely - and almost never when penalties would be involved.

#CarpeDiem

[Art Vandelay]

I'm not up to reprising my full rant on the rampant overuse of contract extensions - my favorites being the ones that suck every ounce of profit out of a guy just to own him for more years.

Shorter version: Extend players only very rarely - and almost never when penalties would be involved.

#CarpeDiem

I'm with you almost 100% on extensions in my fantasy leagues. almost never for pitchers.

[Judge Jude]

I look at it this way:

If I have a $1 player and he is headed to his option year, and I don't extend him and he blossoms into a $20 player, what is the reaction of the owner?

Generally it seems to be, "What was I thinking - I should have extended him to $6, or $11, or $16!"

whereas to me, the answer is, "Let me reply once I finish counting this stack of money I just collected in significant part because I made a $19 profit on a single player!"

[Gregg]

I look at it this way:

If I have a $1 player and he is headed to his option year, and I don't extend him and he blossoms into a $20 player, what is the reaction of the owner?

Generally it seems to be, "What was I thinking - I should have extended him to $6, or $11, or $16!"

whereas to me, the answer is, "Let me reply once I finish counting this stack of money I just collected in significant part because I made a $19 profit on a single player!"

Not arguing with your success. I have a bit of a different take on it.

Anytime I can give a player a 1 year raise and make $14 or more in profit I am doing it. It opens many more trade opportunities during the season over a lame duck contract. Or I get that profit for two years instead of one.

NL only I have Acuna $15B he is definitely getting a year maybe two.

[Judge Jude]

except that the increased cost is guaranteed - while the increased profit is not. my example was to show that even the supposed downside of not extending the cheap player, such as when he blossoms, has one helluva upside. the downside - well, you can see it in this thread, though on a relatively small scale fortunately.

and if the extension "opens many more trade opportunities," then presumably that is designed to acquire a more "now" player such as a lame duck contract - when the cheap player could just be that guy instead, and cheaper!

I have learned over the decades that this is counterintuitive - there is something about the human brain that wants to hang on to that "great pick" for as long as possible.

it goes double, it seems, for prospects. I don't think one of my farmhands has reached my big league roster in 20 years.

for some stretches, I kept trading Lucas Giolitos (who as a National prospect was useless). more recently, I dealt away Acuna, Albies, and Bueller before they reached the bigs.

that doesn't bother me - but I understand that a typical owner would be leaping off a building if they had done that.

overall, I like being a 'zag' competing against 'zigs.'

[The Feral Slasher]

I'm sure this has been posted before--but my question is this--Will he be worth $1 in 2020? See I traded for him during last years rebuild and have him at $6-must keep through 2020. To drop him costs $5 of my budget going into the auction. So should I keep him, it costs me a net $1

Will his possible return from TJ in August warrant keeping him at a buck or should I toss him back and play dollar days with my spare dollar?

I have plenty of other possible keepers I could roster in his place.

If you have other keepers with value seems like you should toss him back

[Judge Jude]

to that specific question, there is what is called an "opportunity cost" of clogging a roster spot with a non-entity like a 2020 Hicks.

the shallower the league, the worse this idea would be.

but even in a league as deep as mine, I would expect to do better for a buck on a last OF/UT roster slot than a badly wounded Hicks. and if there is any doubt, I assume you could just buy Hicks for a buck in the end game if he looks more appealing at that stage than other drek?

[Ken]

except that the increased cost is guaranteed - while the increased profit is not. my example was to show that even the supposed downside of not extending the cheap player, such as when he blossoms, has one helluva upside. the downside - well, you can see it in this thread, though on a relatively small scale fortunately.

and if the extension "opens many more trade opportunities," then presumably that is designed to acquire a more "now" player such as a lame duck contract - when the cheap player could just be that guy instead, and cheaper!

I have learned over the decades that this is counterintuitive - there is something about the human brain that wants to hang on to that "great pick" for as long as possible.

it goes double, it seems, for prospects. I don't think one of my farmhands has reached my big league roster in 20 years.

for some stretches, I kept trading Lucas Giolitos (who as a National prospect was useless). more recently, I dealt away Acuna, Albies, and Bueller before they reached the bigs.

that doesn't bother me - but I understand that a typical owner would be leaping off a building if they had done that.

overall, I like being a 'zag' competing against 'zigs.'

I tend to agree with you but there are exceptions.

Extensions for star players make sense. I've won a league multiple years due to a Trout extension before - and that would have been just a single year if I did not extend.

And there are times where extensions have no real cost, they just give you an option. For example in leagues where you can reserve a minor league eligible player so they don't cost against your auction budget, but their contracts still move forward, often extensions are no brainers - zero cost but you get an option.

In general though, yes, extensions are overused and eat up profit.

In this case I would not keep Hicks, as you said the opportunity cost of the roster spot is too high.

[Judge Jude]

we are in agreement on superstars.

just realized we had a terrific real-time example this season.

the owner of Albies had an option: keep at 5-O, or make him 10-L2 with an option for 15-L1 in 2021 (no penalty for cut).
also JBell, same choice.
and Nola - but 14-O, or 19-L2 and 24-L1 option in 2021.

most of our owners would have extended all 3.
I probably would have extended both hitters only, but been very tempted to do just one.

keeping all 3 costs you 15 extra units.
well, this guy won the pennant - 105.5 pts to 105.

VERY unlikely he could still have won entering the auction with 15 fewer units. and flags really do fly forever.

he'll be sorely tested next spring though, as Acuna and Bueller go the 5-O or 10-L2 route.
gotta extend Acuna (2 years is the max, which is a rule I highly recommend to help boost league stability. if you have lost owners and it's because a team or two is just utterly unbeatable, double that recommendation).

most would also do Bueller, but I'd think about that one as it moves 5 units lost (on Acuna) to 10.

[The Feral Slasher]

we are in agreement on superstars.

just realized we had a terrific real-time example this season.

the owner of Albies had an option: keep at 5-O, or make him 10-L2 with an option for 15-L1 in 2021 (no penalty for cut).
also JBell, same choice.
and Nola - but 14-O, or 19-L2 and 24-L1 option in 2021.

most of our owners would have extended all 3.
I probably would have extended both hitters only, but been very tempted to do just one.

keeping all 3 costs you 15 extra units.
well, this guy won the pennant - 105.5 pts to 105.

VERY unlikely he could still have won entering the auction with 15 fewer units. and flags really do fly forever.

he'll be sorely tested next spring though, as Acuna and Bueller go the 5-O or 10-L2 route.
gotta extend Acuna (2 years is the max, which is a rule I highly recommend to help boost league stability. if you have lost owners and it's because a team or two is just utterly unbeatable, double that recommendation).

most would also do Bueller, but I'd think about that one as it moves 5 units lost (on Acuna) to 10.

Why does there need to be a limit on extensions ? I thought you were saying there was a competitive advantage to NOT extending contracts ?

[Judge Jude]

In our inaugural auction, rookie Dwight Gooden was bought for 5 bucks.

if he had stayed off drugs, it would have been silly - in our minds - for that hunch to pay off for many, many years. he actually had a contract of 5, 5, then 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 from his owner. he just snorted away that advantage, eventually.

[The Feral Slasher]

In our inaugural auction, rookie Dwight Gooden was bought for 5 bucks.

if he had stayed off drugs, it would have been silly - in our minds - for that hunch to pay off for many, many years. he actually had a contract of 5, 5, then 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 from his owner. he just snorted away that advantage, eventually.

I can understand why you would have the rule, I just don't understand how your support for limiting extensions aligns with your statements in this thread regarding the advantages of not extending contracts.

[Judge Jude]

the advantage to deciding not to extend contracts applies to the Aaron Hicks's of the world - so almost everybody.

the limit on long, long, long term contracts is for the Black Swans - Trout, Gooden, etc.