2K20: Tatis, Vlad, Eloy, Alvarez, Alonso, Bichette, Biggio, Lowe et al

[TS Garp]

There were so many great rookie hitters this season. Curious about how you'd rank them going into 2020. Who do you think builds on 2019 and who regresses? Who will be over and under drafted?

[Sour Masher]

It was a great class. Of the ones you list, Tatis has shown what he is (elite), Eloy will show more, both Alvarez and Alonso will regress but still be great, Bichette will solidify, Biggio and Lowe will regress.

[Gregg]

It was a great class. Of the ones you list, Tatis has shown what he is (elite), Eloy will show more, both Alvarez and Alonso will regress but still be great, Bichette will solidify, Biggio and Lowe will regress.

You left off Vlad.

Also how would you rank them from first to worst?

[TS Garp]

My guess is that almost all of them will be overdrafted, but especially Tatis, Vlad (once again) and Alonso. I still think they will be very valuable but I'm guessing they will be drafted at or near their ceiling and I can see regression for Tatis and Alonso and I still think Vlad will be over-hyped. I think the best values will be Eloy and Bichette (who I can see outearning Vlad). Possibly Biggio, too, but the average could be a real issue and I don't think he'll keep stealing bases at that rate and with that level of success. I think Alvarez will also return solid value but probably without the chance for profit that you'll see from Eloy and Bichette.

[revo]

I like Biggio for next season. High BB% and a solid amount of SBs.

[TS Garp]

I like Biggio for next season. High BB% and a solid amount of SBs.

I think he'll have a lot of value in an OBP league as maybe the new Brian Dozier but I think you'd need to be careful in a league that uses AVG. Also, regarding his steals, he stole 47 of 66 bases 1573 minor league plate appearances and 14 out of 14 in 430 major league plate appearances. Perhaps he significantly improved his base stealing ability and I'm guessing Toronto will give him ample opportunity to run, but I think some owners will prorate those steals over a full season, which seems dicey.

[onejayhawk]

I find the BB% to be a touch worrisome. Young players with end-of-career skillsets do not age well. It's not enough to make me pass, but I won't bid him up.

How does everyone compare Biggio and Kevin Newman?

J

[TS Garp]

re: Tatis, he's obviously phenomenal but are you willing to draft him ahead of Bogaerts? Devers? Marte? He had a .410 BABIP and while I have no doubt he can sustain a higher than normal rate, he's due for regression there and I also wonder if the Padres will be a bit more caution with him on the basepaths. That could depend on their managerial choice. I wouldn't be surprised to see something along the lines of .280-25-75-90-18 (assuming 150 games) as opposed to the Lindor-esque .310-35-90-110-30 that some are inevitably going to expect. Also, never like back injuries...

[onejayhawk]

Marte, yes. Even without the back injury it's close.

What about Tatis and Mondesi?

J

[virgonomic]

In my AL only, I have Alvarez 1 Biggio 2 NLowe 5 Bichette 6 for 2020 only. I'm excited.

[Gregg]

In my AL only, I have Alvarez 1 Biggio 2 NLowe 5 Bichette 6 for 2020 only. I'm excited.

Very nice, I would be excited too.

[Sour Masher]

In my AL only, I have Alvarez 1 Biggio 2 NLowe 5 Bichette 6 for 2020 only. I'm excited.

I traded Alvarez, Lowe, and Bichette for a chance at a threepeat, but I fell short. In hindsight, I got greedy. Probably should have rebuilt this year.

[Gregg]

I traded Alvarez, Lowe, and Bichette for a chance at a threepeat, but I fell short. In hindsight, I got greedy. Probably should have rebuilt this year.

It is the right thing to do, but sometimes I have a hard time doing it just for the reason you mentioned. Falling short and not having the exciting rookies is almost too painful.

[Teenwolf]

re: Tatis, he's obviously phenomenal but are you willing to draft him ahead of Bogaerts? Devers? Marte? He had a .410 BABIP and while I have no doubt he can sustain a higher than normal rate, he's due for regression there and I also wonder if the Padres will be a bit more caution with him on the basepaths. That could depend on their managerial choice. I wouldn't be surprised to see something along the lines of .280-25-75-90-18 (assuming 150 games) as opposed to the Lindor-esque .310-35-90-110-30 that some are inevitably going to expect. Also, never like back injuries...

I was going through a list of xBA today and noticed Tatis was one of several rookies with large gaps in xBA and actual BA. I was wondering if it takes a bit of time for scouting reports to get more accurate defensive positioning and pitch selection data for hitters numbers to normalize.

Anyway, I think Tatis had a .260 xBA, which isnt terrible, but suggests your realistic projection is more likely to happen than prorating his fluky debut stat line. Now, he might have a skillset that resembles Trevor Story, but Petco will depress Tatis' numbers as much as Coors helps Story. I would be tempted to deal Tatis if I owned him and had some primo offers to choose from.

[Ken]