A REALLY weird auction!

[Ken]

In hindsight, I could have taken Blackmon or Story or Nola. The problem was that they were the top available players in the whole auction--and they were the first 3 off the board. As I said before, I had $121. to spend for 13 players and I had 8 owners with more money than I had, including one with $216 and another with $198. I felt I was in no position to go full throttle on these guys. The money fell off the table so fast, so soon, that things changed rapidly.
No one hates leaving money behind more than I, never having left a dollar in 30+ years. I have never seen an auction shift so quickly in all that time. Weird.

Interesting, see I don't see $198 and $121 as significantly different when you are both bidding on $35 players. If there was a fallacy in my opinion the fallacy was thinking you were outclassed in $ early on. I don't think that's the case at all.

While they could potentially buy 2 more top end players than you, on an individual player by player basis, they should not be any more willing to spend extra $s than you are.

Now if your bid was going to take you to dollar days and theirs was going to leave them with $40, I get it. But when you are both sitting there with > $100 it's all the same.

I've made my share of auction mistakes too, but I think this was a case where you overthought the "wait until the deals come" strategy when you needed to be buying players that were on par. Anything on par in a keeper league signals a big green BUY NOW flag to me.

In fact, I start to get worried if players are going off the board too cheap - it just means that the inflation is not going to go away and you are never going to get to the discount area.

There's an easy way to stop that from happening. You have to bid!

[DMT]

Interesting, see I don't see $198 and $121 as significantly different when you are both bidding on $35 players. If there was a fallacy in my opinion the fallacy was thinking you were outclassed in $ early on. I don't think that's the case at all.

While they could potentially buy 2 more top end players than you, on an individual player by player basis, they should not be any more willing to spend extra $s than you are.

Now if your bid was going to take you to dollar days and theirs was going to leave them with $40, I get it. But when you are both sitting there with > $100 it's all the same.

I've made my share of auction mistakes too, but I think this was a case where you overthought the "wait until the deals come" strategy when you needed to be buying players that were on par. Anything on par in a keeper league signals a big green BUY NOW flag to me.

In fact, I start to get worried if players are going off the board too cheap - it just means that the inflation is not going to go away and you are never going to get to the discount area.

There's an easy way to stop that from happening. You have to bid!

Completely agree with everything in this post.

[TranaGreg]

In fact, I start to get worried if players are going off the board too cheap - it just means that the inflation is not going to go away and you are never going to get to the discount area.

There's an easy way to stop that from happening. You have to bid!

This! You have to be flexible enough to take advantage if this shows up, or to wait if the early prices are really high.

I'm not saying I do this, but I should!!!

[scottw]

"I've made my share of auction mistakes too, but I think this was a case where you overthought the "wait until the deals come" strategy when you needed to be buying players that were on par. Anything on par in a keeper league signals a big green BUY NOW flag to me."

That's just it: the players in question at the top of the draft were not "on par", but well over what I had set aside as my price I would/could spend. Nola, for example, went $17. over my adjusted-for-inflation value going in. I will sometimes ignore this when I have a serious need for that player/that position, but that wasn't the case here.

I do think that discussing as a postmortem can help us all get a better perspective on what we do. For all the opinions and suggestions, Thanks!

[Ken]

"I've made my share of auction mistakes too, but I think this was a case where you overthought the "wait until the deals come" strategy when you needed to be buying players that were on par. Anything on par in a keeper league signals a big green BUY NOW flag to me."

That's just it: the players in question at the top of the draft were not "on par", but well over what I had set aside as my price I would/could spend. Nola, for example, went $17. over my adjusted-for-inflation value going in. I will sometimes ignore this when I have a serious need for that player/that position, but that wasn't the case here.

I do think that discussing as a postmortem can help us all get a better perspective on what we do. For all the opinions and suggestions, Thanks!

Hard to keep up with this description of your auction, you had said that there were "record low prices", but now you are saying they were too high.

But ignoring that, you said Story and Blackmon went for $34, that sounds pretty reasonable. Those are not inflated prices - why didn't you bid $35?

[DMT]

It would really help this discussion if you could post your roster with prices as well as some prices from the players you missed out on.

[scottw]

C Molina, Y StL $14.00 3
C Martin, R LA $2.00 1
1B Frazier, T NY $7.00 1
3B Belt SF $12.00 1
CI Zimmerman, RWas $10.00 1
SS Swanson, DAtl $7.00 1
2B Hernandez,CPhl $14.00 2
MI Frazier, A Pitt $10.00 1
OF Acuna, R Atl $15.00 2
OF Ozuna, M StL $24.00 3
OF Bader, H StL $10.00 2
OF Myers, W SD $27.00 4of4
OF Duggar SF $6.00 1
U Altherr, A Phl $10.00 1---reserve draft
U Stevenson,AWas$10.00 1---reserve draft

P Buehler, W LA $2.00 2
P Castillo, L Cinn $2.00 3
P Marquez,G Col $10.00 2
P Hicks, J StL $11.00 2
P Matz, S NY $8.00 1
P Lauer, E SD $9.00 1
P Lucchesi, J SD $11.00 1
P Hudson, Dak StL $5.00 1
P Maronta, Reyes SF $3.00 1
P Toussaint, T Atl $11.00 1
I was forced to keep A Russell in the last year of his LTC at $25. and Ian Happ was sent down Sunday AM pre-draft.

The 1's in the right column were draft day acquisitions.
As I said earlier, I could have used Story, Blackmon, and Nola would have also helped, but they went 1,2,3.
After that, the OF slipped to #2 Schwarber/Dickenson/McCutcheon group.
2B was headlined by Cano/K Marte--enough said. I saw that coming, which is why I kept Hernandez.
I was in on E Diaz up to $34., but, again, he was the 4th pick thrown out.

Hindsight being 20/20, yes, I could have done some things differently, to better results. In a weird auction like this one [in this leagues' experience], I came out of it with a chance to do well, given some intelligent trading down the road. We will see!

[Gregg]

I have been thinking about this post for a few days now.

Tomorrow is my AL only 12 team 5x5 keeper $260 budget. I get to keep 10 plus one rookie on reserves. 6 position players and 4 starting pitchers.

I am going into the auction with $44 dollars for 13 players. This means technically I can spend up to 32 for one if I am willing to fill out the rest of the roster with $1 endgamers. I was actually planning on five $1 endgamers.

This could be a problem if the guys with money do not pay full inflated prices. It is possible that some will keep more than the norm for the endgame locking me out on my $1 value guys. I cannot afford to do any price enforcing or buy a 20 plus player at value.

I am not freaking out, but I am going to have to be very deep. I am going to have to sit on my bids and look for a couple of good profit players in the middle rounds as well as find those endgame diamonds. It may mean keep 3 bucks back for players I was hoping to get for a dollar. If I am not careful I could leave more than my traditional 0 on the table.

[scottw]

I have been thinking about this post for a few days now.

If I am not careful I could leave more than my traditional 0 on the table.

And, trust me, that sucks!