OK, so the consensus is that we're mostly out on Kyle Freeland. How about his helium-filled teammate?
Overall 2018 stats: 196 IP, 3.77 ERA, 14-11, 1.20 WHIP, 230 Ks, 1.10 HR/9, .311 BABIP
Indicators/skills: 10.6 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 (28.2% K rate and 7% walk rate), 3.40 FIP/3.10 xFIP, 15.7% HR/FB, 1.59 G/F with 47/30/23 GB/FB/LD
2018 first half: 103 IP, 4.81 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 106 K
2018 second half: 93 IP, 2.61 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 124 K
That's a big jump in Ks in the second half, in addition to the much improved ratios.
Projections:
THE BAT: 188 IP, 4.15 ERA, 15 W, 197 K, 1.28 WHIP, 9.4 K/9
ATC: 187 IP, 3.85 ERA, 13 W, 202 K, 1.25 WHIP, 9.7 K/9
Steamer: 190 IP, 3.88 ERA, 13 W, 207 K, 1.24 WHIP, 9.8 K/9
ZiPS: 191 IP, 3.82 ERA, 15 W, 208 K, 1.23 WHIP, 9.8 K/9
Those all look pretty similar. He had an 8.2 K/9 in 2017 so at least everyone expects him to hold most of the growth in Ks.
I'm hesitant to go against the wisdom of the crowds but I think he's more in the 3.5 to 3.6 ERA range.
Draft info, ADP for NFBC online leagues since 2/1:
P23. Greinke ADP 67
P25. Berrios, ADP 71
P28. Bumgarner, ADP 76
P30. Z Wheeler, ADP 78
P32. Marquez, ADP 81
P34. Foltynewicz, ADP 93
P35. Mikolas, ADP 94
P37. Price, ADP 99
P39. L Castillo, ADP 110
I like Marquez about the same as Wheeler. I'd probably take both over Bumgarner but that's just me. Then again I'd at least think about Price over Marquez. Mikolas is a tough comp, if my SP1 was a high K guy I'd consider Mikolas but if I needed the Ks I'd easily take Marquez.
Overall 2018 stats: 196 IP, 3.77 ERA, 14-11, 1.20 WHIP, 230 Ks, 1.10 HR/9, .311 BABIP
Indicators/skills: 10.6 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 (28.2% K rate and 7% walk rate), 3.40 FIP/3.10 xFIP, 15.7% HR/FB, 1.59 G/F with 47/30/23 GB/FB/LD
2018 first half: 103 IP, 4.81 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 106 K
2018 second half: 93 IP, 2.61 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 124 K
That's a big jump in Ks in the second half, in addition to the much improved ratios.
Projections:
THE BAT: 188 IP, 4.15 ERA, 15 W, 197 K, 1.28 WHIP, 9.4 K/9
ATC: 187 IP, 3.85 ERA, 13 W, 202 K, 1.25 WHIP, 9.7 K/9
Steamer: 190 IP, 3.88 ERA, 13 W, 207 K, 1.24 WHIP, 9.8 K/9
ZiPS: 191 IP, 3.82 ERA, 15 W, 208 K, 1.23 WHIP, 9.8 K/9
Those all look pretty similar. He had an 8.2 K/9 in 2017 so at least everyone expects him to hold most of the growth in Ks.
I'm hesitant to go against the wisdom of the crowds but I think he's more in the 3.5 to 3.6 ERA range.
Draft info, ADP for NFBC online leagues since 2/1:
P23. Greinke ADP 67
P25. Berrios, ADP 71
P28. Bumgarner, ADP 76
P30. Z Wheeler, ADP 78
P32. Marquez, ADP 81
P34. Foltynewicz, ADP 93
P35. Mikolas, ADP 94
P37. Price, ADP 99
P39. L Castillo, ADP 110
I like Marquez about the same as Wheeler. I'd probably take both over Bumgarner but that's just me. Then again I'd at least think about Price over Marquez. Mikolas is a tough comp, if my SP1 was a high K guy I'd consider Mikolas but if I needed the Ks I'd easily take Marquez.
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