Cutdown decisions: 4x4 NL-only, Keeper, 12-team auction, $280. cap

[scottw]

2 C, 2 U, 5 OF, 10 P
Standard 4x4 categories, very competitive, inflation an issue
All these years will roll over, 1=2, 2=3, etc Thus, a 2 will be in the final year of contract unless I offer a LT contract--not likely for anyone. MUST KEEP Myers and Russell as a LTC, their final year.
I can keep a max of 12 from this list. These first 14 are my most likely, but depends on ST usage and the eye test for the rest:

Ronald Acuna OF | ATL $15.00 1
Walker Buehler P | LAD $2.00 1
Wil Myers 3B,OF | SD $27.00 3---5
Addison Russell SS | CHC $25.00 4---5
Jordan Hicks P | STL $11.00 1
Yadier Molina C/StL $14.00 2
Jimmy Nelson SP/ Mil $1.00 1
Marcell Ozuna OF | STL $24.00 2
Harrison Bader OF | STL $10.00 1
German Marquez P | COL $10.00 1
Luis Castillo P | CIN $2.00 2
Cesar Hernandez 2B | PHI $14.00 1
Adam Eaton OF / WAS. $21.00 1
Seranthony Dominguez-PHL$15.00 1

Probably not:
Ryan McMahon 2B,1B | COL $10.00 2
Chris Archer P | PIT $18.00 1
Jose Martinez 1B,OF | STL $10.00 2
Ian Happ 3B,OF | CHC $5.00 2
Drew Steckenrider P | MIA $14.00 1
Steve Cishek RP/Chi $1.00 1
Yoshihisa Hirano P | ARI $10.00 1
John Gant P | STL $7.00 1

Suggestions are always welcomed!
Thanks.
Scottw

[harmon]

Can you buy out Russell?

First 12 on your list.

Eaton might be ready for a good year but too pricey at $21, especially when you are in desperate need of power.

[Teenwolf]

I would cut Eaton and probably Nelson. I know lots of folks like him, but his workload will be limited, he's already having some discomfort in the spring.

[joncarlos]

I can't go that high for Seranthony, even in 4x4. His best case scenario is that Philly mixes and matches. I still think there's a chance that Robertson gets 25+ saves. I think Ian Happ probably gets 400 PAs, I'd strongly consider him instead.

[harmon]

The first 12 stops at Cesar Hernandez.

[Gregg]

The first 12 stops at Cesar Hernandez.

But that does not mean those are the best 12 to keep.

[scottw]

I can't go that high for Seranthony, even in 4x4. His best case scenario is that Philly mixes and matches. I still think there's a chance that Robertson gets 25+ saves. I think Ian Happ probably gets 400 PAs, I'd strongly consider him instead.

JC, what leads you to think Happ gets AB's [finally!]? I have had him for several years, always thinking this would be the year. Nothing but tears!

[scottw]

But that does not mean those are the best 12 to keep.

If not those, who in your opinion?

[harmon]

Scott, can you buy out Russell?

[scottw]

Scott, can you buy out Russell?

"Must pay the player’s upcoming year’s salary from its $280 budget, prior to releasing the player. "

This is the only opportunity to buy him out and I see no benefit to losing $25. off an already tight budget and get no one at all. I can trade him but cannot drop him until next year.

[joncarlos]

JC, what leads you to think Happ gets AB's [finally!]? I have had him for several years, always thinking this would be the year. Nothing but tears!

Not expecting much from Russell, moving Baez mostly to SS. That leaves Zobrist (or Happ, or Descalso) at 2B.

Assuming Heyward is the primary RF, otherwise it's Bryant, with Happ or Bote filling in at 3B.

That only really leaves Almora for CF and I don't think he's a full-timer, leaving some ABs open for Happ.

Happ is not a bad defender, so assuming he can hit reasonably well, there's an argument for his overall value to surpass both Zobrist and Almora (and Bote, and Descalso). Maybe even Heyward. So I think they'll find a place for him to play.

[scottw]

Reasonable. It's just that we've heard this whole, "we'll find AB's for Happ" thing before. I'd love to believe them some day!

[cavebird]

I would keep 12 from the 14 list at the top with the cuts being from among: Nelson, Dominguez, and Marquez.

[scottw]

Marquez is a new name to be brought up on this thread. I view him as terrific upside, even though pitching in that hellhole at Coors. He might be the only Rockies SP I would trust in that environment. Anyone else have reservations about him?

[harmon]

Any Colorado starter gives me pause. I get his appeal for you but just be sure to recognize that there is inherent risk there.

The historical list of banner seasons by a Colorado starter is a pretty short one.