The Universal Question

[TS Garp]

Also, lest we forget:

Delmon Young

18: A: .322/.388/.538, 25 hr, 115 rbi, 95 runs, 21 sb
19: AA/AAA: .315/.354/.527, 26 hr, 99 rbi, 92 runs, 32 sb

Not in Vlad's league, to be sure, but most of us remember the hype surrounding him.

Or here's another -- what player being taken in the teen rounds of drafts this year put up these numbers as a 19 year old A/A+:

.334/424/.520, 12 hr, 77 rbi, 109 runs, 55 sb

[Ken]

Or here's another -- what player being taken in the teen rounds of drafts this year put up these numbers as a 19 year old A/A+:

.334/424/.520, 12 hr, 77 rbi, 109 runs, 55 sb

My first guess is Buxton based on the SB.

[TS Garp]

My first guess is Buxton based on the SB.

Correct.

[Chitownhawk]

I appreciate the responses. My approach will simply be to measure value, by the ADP #'s. If a player has fallen 10+ spots or more, from where the experts have designated he should be, the curiosity meter goes up. Based on that declining interest, I'll look closely and factor in acquired raw numbers and positional needs. I'm guessing this will occur with more frequency, after the first few rounds.

Lindor and Kershaw would be prime early examples with obvious reasons for the " I'm falling and I can't get UP". FWIW-Again the league is a non keeper, one and done, no trade league for CtH.

[nullnor]

time travel is possible if you create enough frame dragging on space. the universal question is why does light always have to be the same speed.. oh! this is a baseball question

umm.. i usually try to get a round ahead of everybody anyways. assuming everyone is using close to the same rankings. seize your destiny. don't let the default rankings dictate who you choose. go out and grab the guy you want a round early, and then get ahead of everyone by a round. that way you get everyone you want except for one player.

[nullnor]

i just remember when Harper came up and he was 18 and everyone went crazy. i don't know maybe things have changed. i would be weary drafting a young player with no MLB track record very early. even if he seems like a lock to be the next great player.

[ssmallz]

You want a player very badly. How far outside the box (ADP) or (Auction$) are you willing to go to land him?

ie: Vlad Guerrero Jr. is the next TEN tool player. He is being drafted in the 46-48 range in many leagues. (8-15 teams)

Would you venture into the 3rd round, to capture this nugget? Conversely, a player you did not want has dropped well below his advertised value (ADP). How far does he need to fall, for you to jump on the perceived + value.

The veterans on this forum will surely be able, to add some valuable insight.

The answer to this question is dynamic not static because relative value of draft picks changes based on where you are on the talent curve. It's easiest to think of a snake draft in terms of auction value. At the beginning of the draft, the difference between 2 spots represents a huge change in actual value. I.E. It would theoretically be a huge mistake to take J.D. Martinez ahead of Mike Trout in the draft because Trouts value is somewhere around $44 while Martinez's would be somewhere around $35 even though Martinez is the consensus 5th ranked player and you're only jumping him 4 spots. Conversely, when you get to a certain point in the draft somewhere around pick 200 or so 16th round in a 12 team draft, the absolute differences in value between all the players just isn't that great so jumping a player 4 or 5 rounds won't make a huge difference. The other thing about late round players is that their range of outcomes is so huge and they can be replaced so quickly that their projection almost don't matter, it's all about upside and the guys you like personally.

To bring this back to the original question about Vlad in a redraft league, there's just not a ton of value here to be gained at this pick. If you're right, well you get what you paid for, no profit but if you're wrong you're going to lose big. Given the other names he's going around, I would pass here. Other players going in that area are projected to give you the same or better stats and have proven it in the major leagues already. We know vlad is guaranteed to miss a few games b/c he's starting in the minors and he doesn't steal. This severely limits his upside even if you project him to have a Soto like start to his career. He just won't get the time to accumulate the counting stats needed to exceed that pick number.

[Chitownhawk]

ssmaltz:

Your response has valid points...however every site has different auction values....and predicted $$ values and projections do not always reflect the actual coming year's performance. Vlad Jr. is being selected extremely high because so many want the new hot prospect, at any costs.

My original question was really separating draft values both over and underrated. The Vlad example discussion took on a life of its own.

[ssmallz]

ssmaltz:

Your response has valid points...however every site has different auction values....and predicted $$ values and projections do not always reflect the actual coming year's performance. Vlad Jr. is being selected extremely high because so many want the new hot prospect, at any costs.

My original question was really separating draft values both over and underrated. The Vlad example discussion took on a life of its own.

The actual draft value $$ for the site don't really matter I just used it to illustrate the point. In the first round player #1 is worth way more than player #5 while player #200 is worth only slightly more than player #225 so there's really is no such thing as too much of a reach at the end of a snake draft while you need to be way more careful about reaching at the beginning. This concept can be difficult to understand when looking at a draft board labeled 1-200 so I prefer using $ values as a way to explain the concept b/c it's easier to grasp.

[Sour Masher]

The actual draft value $$ for the site don't really matter I just used it to illustrate the point. In the first round player #1 is worth way more than player #5 while player #200 is worth only slightly more than player #225 so there's really is no such thing as too much of a reach at the end of a snake draft while you need to be way more careful about reaching at the beginning. This concept can be difficult to understand when looking at a draft board labeled 1-200 so I prefer using $ values as a way to explain the concept b/c it's easier to grasp.

An excellent point and a great idea. Kudos to you and the OP for a great topic and discussion. Welcome to the forum!

[The Dane]

The actual draft value $$ for the site don't really matter I just used it to illustrate the point. In the first round player #1 is worth way more than player #5 while player #200 is worth only slightly more than player #225 so there's really is no such thing as too much of a reach at the end of a snake draft while you need to be way more careful about reaching at the beginning. This concept can be difficult to understand when looking at a draft board labeled 1-200 so I prefer using $ values as a way to explain the concept b/c it's easier to grasp.

Exactly. Well said.