The Universal Question

[Sour Masher]

In your 1950-2000 sports almanac?

Back in my day, you could touch words and numbers and they'd leave ink on your fingers. They were real. They left a trace. Not like your electric 1s and 0s. Kids today.

ETA: Man, it has been too long since I've seen the movie. Need to watch it again. Am I the only baseball nerd that dreamed of getting that almanac from the future not for betting purposes, but to dominate fantasy leagues? .

[B-Fly]

In your 1950-2000 sports almanac?

LOL. Just watched that movie with my kids on Sunday night.

[Roy Hobbs]

In your 1950-2000 sports almanac?

I've had my 2000 sports almanac since 1970.

[Gregg]

Sounds like a redraft.

In a keeper league of any kind you take Guerrero somewhere in the early part of the 1st round.

In a redraft, my answer is going to be different. While Guerrero is potentially the next superstar, he's still just 20 years old, and the odds are that he doesn't reach all of that potential immediately. The huge upside is already baked into his 4th round price, so if you are buying above that price you are really saying there will be no learning curve. Which, while possible, seems unlikely.

I'd also be careful mentioning Vlad having all the tools, at least from a fantasy perspective, because he's not likely to run much. Unlike Acuna last year, where you had that floor knowing he'd pitch in with SB, if Vlad struggles some, the floor is quite a bit lower.

This is a great post. And exactly how I would handle it depending on what type of league.

[TS Garp]

Re: Guerrero, I was recently looking back at Gregg Jefferies' minor league numbers. Here's what he did at age 18 and 19:

18: A/AA: .353/.401/.549, 16 hr, 111 rbi, 96 runs, 57 sb
19: AA: .367/.423/.598, 20 hr, 101 rbi, 81 runs, 26 sb

Where would he be drafted today coming off those numbers?

[Ken]

Re: Guerrero, I was recently looking back at Gregg Jefferies' minor league numbers. Here's what he did at age 18 and 19:

18: A/AA: .353/.401/.549, 16 hr, 111 rbi, 96 runs, 57 sb
19: AA: .367/.423/.598, 20 hr, 101 rbi, 81 runs, 26 sb

Where would he be drafted today coming off those numbers?

Wow, great comp.

And to put those numbers into further context, if Vlad were to start this season in the big leagues this year he'd actually be 7 months younger than Jeffries was in that age 20 season. He's a baby!

[revo]

Re: Guerrero, I was recently looking back at Gregg Jefferies' minor league numbers. Here's what he did at age 18 and 19:

18: A/AA: .353/.401/.549, 16 hr, 111 rbi, 96 runs, 57 sb
19: AA: .367/.423/.598, 20 hr, 101 rbi, 81 runs, 26 sb

Where would he be drafted today coming off those numbers?

And then he came up at age 20 and hit a tantalizing .321 with a 178+ OPS and 6 HRs in 108 ABs, so imagine his price for his first full season in 1989!

Jefferies did have a very good career, but it happened after he left the pressure pot that was the late 1980s NY Mets.

[cavebird]

Re: Guerrero, I was recently looking back at Gregg Jefferies' minor league numbers. Here's what he did at age 18 and 19:

18: A/AA: .353/.401/.549, 16 hr, 111 rbi, 96 runs, 57 sb
19: AA: .367/.423/.598, 20 hr, 101 rbi, 81 runs, 26 sb

Where would he be drafted today coming off those numbers?

My poison was once Ian Stewart. I am sure his numbers were silly, too.

[Sour Masher]

My poison was once Ian Stewart. I am sure his numbers were silly, too.

They were good, but never in the same ballpark as vlad Jrs. I get the point made with the comparisons, and it is a good corrective to the insane hype this future 1bman is getting. No one knows for sure what a player will do at the highest level until he does it.

But at the same time, many scouts consider him the best prospect since ARod. Think of any elite player playing now, and look at him when he was in the minors, and Vlad compares favorably to all of them. That is not to say he will be better or even as good as many of them. But apples to apples, prosect to prospect, Vlad Jr is a better hitting prosect than his dad was, or any of the players playing today. You can certainly argue some guys being better overall, because of defensive value. But in terms of hitting, no one in the game today was better than Vlad Jr as a prospect. Most scouts rate him 8, 7 hit, power. Some even go 8, 8. Trout was probably 8, 7, but a bit behind Vlad jr. And Trout and Harper made it to the majors younger than he will, but that isn't really his fault as much as it is the new player deal and the silly service time games teams play.

[Ken]

They were good, but never in the same ballpark as vlad Jrs.

Huh? The numbers TSG posted for Jeffries look like Vlad's but with speed. How is that not in the same ballpark??

[Sour Masher]

Huh? The numbers TSG posted for Jeffries look like Vlad's but with speed. How is that not in the same ballpark??

Since my response quoted cagebird's mention of Ian Stewart, I thought who I was referring to was obvious.

[Ken]

Since my response quoted cagebird's mention of Ian Stewart, I thought who I was referring to was obvious.

Ah got it, definitely not obvious though due to your wording - "They" as in both Jeffries and Stewart or "They" as in Stewart's numbers?

[onejayhawk]

LOL. Just watched that movie with my kids on Sunday night.

We remember when you didn't have a girlfriend, much less a wife. What were you doing back then, besides 300 posts a day?

J

[B-Fly]

We remember when you didn't have a girlfriend, much less a wife. What were you doing back then, besides 300 posts a day?

J

Drinking a heck of a lot more and watching movies in movie theaters instead of on Netflix/Prime.

[TS Garp]

Here's another one:

Andruw Jones

18: A: .277/.372/.512, 25 hr, 100 rbi, 104 runs, 56 sb
19: A+/AA/AAA: .339/.421/.652, 34 hr, 92 rbi, 115 runs, 20 sb

Andruw went on to have an amazing (some would argue Hall of Fame) career, but it took him a little time to come into his own offensively at the major league level.

Is Vlad extraordinary? Absolutely. Is he completely unique/the likes of which we've never seen before? No.