NFBC Draft Champions - RJ entry

[frae]

We settled on Krush it was a long conversation and interesting. We are hopeful that a SP we like will fall to round 5.

[The Feral Slasher]

this is fun to follow, please post an updated board when you have a chance

[Ken]

this is fun to follow, please post an updated board when you have a chance

Same board with Krush as our pick. Slow draft slows down overnight.

[frae]

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[The Feral Slasher]

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Danke Schoen !

[mjl]

mjl: questions for round 4: if paxton or stras are still there, do we take a second pitcher? would we take vlad? would we take realmuto?
mjl: there are so few good catchers and he's even on a better team now
mjl: also how do we feel about filling UT early with krush if he's there
Ken: No paxton
Fresno Bob: Fine with realmuto if buehler is gone, fine with krush too
Frae: I definitely want to go back to hitting unless buehler survives
Frae: Davis JT and rendon and maybe Cody B
mjl: nobody behind us has a SP, buehler has to be gone
Pauly: Please please please let's go pitching again
Frae: I agree but he's the only one I'd want this high in rd 4
Ken: But I'll always call him Krishna now
Pauly: If anyine is left
Frae: I don't trust Corbin or pax and stras is always hurt
Pauly: Taillon paxton stras etc etc im in the car so i cant look at a list
Pauly: Even a closer maybe
Pauly: Anyone but edwin diaz
Ken: Too early for a closer for me
Frae: Let's see what happens I know I took Vlad in mine but I wouldn't push that risk on you guys. I like Krush to balance our team
Frae: Yeah closer run will happen in 6/7
Ken: Flaherty is interesting.
Pauly: Yes!!!!!
Pauly: Flaherty shouldve been on that list i was trying to make
Pauly: I know everybody loves realMuto in philly but i think taking a top ranked catcher is a huge mistake. Anyone who took sanchez last year was screwed
Ken: That was Krush before autocorrect
Pauly: Also i already chatted with frae about this,...krush is dh only which is a big negative to me
Frae: I think we have two ba anchors that won't hit 30 hr and Krush balances them nicely
Pauly: But if everyone is leaning one way of course im not gonna push back
Ken: He makes it to pick 12 just 12% of the time this year
mjl: who does, Davis? Is your ADP list overall or specific to draft champions? He's a couple picks lower in DC because of the positional issues
Pauly: Heres the SP list- buehler, corbin, paxton, flaherty, stras, taillon, clevenger, greinke. I heard flat no on pax and corbin. Just saying we wont get any if them if we pass this time around and we are trying to compete with a lot of teams with two aces.
mjl: i'd be very surprised if buehler or corbin get back but happy to take either of those. i think i like clevinger the most of the others.
Frae: Sure we are but if the back end over drafts pitchers the value is in hitting. I don't think we should panic. The guys that have two aces have to chase hitting soon
Pauly: I really like taillon and flaherty this year. Clevenger too
mjl: i'm assuming 3-5 pitchers go in the next six picks
Pauly: By sheer numbers at least 2 of those pitchers will be left. More than that probably
Pauly: Hey if this is too text heavy i can take it to the message board instead
Ken: No paxton or Corbin for me
Fresno Bob: I'd be fine with clevenger as my #2
Ken: Define any pitching. Paxton in NY doesn't interest me at all. Corbin is nothing special. I'd take Taillon but probably too early
Pauly: The list i sent of 8 sp
Pauly: Lets not be slaves to adp...other than krush i dont see an offensive guy worth taking with the pick
Pauly: We cant afford to take vlad because we already took lindor...am I right?
mjl: i like suarez/rendon but don't feel too strongly about them
Frae: But I love Vlad �� I think rendon is solid stats to bank
Pauly: We all love vlad! Of course none of us love being in last place going into May lol
Frae: Davis and rendon are reliable hitters if we go there. I won't say I'm against anything until we see how the end picks.
Frae: Lol I know and I wouldn't push him with us already having lindor
Frae: I bet he goes anyway
Pauly: I hope so. Really think we will all be happy with one of those younger pitchers
Frae: Rendon and bellinger go
Pauly: Picks happening...rendon then bellinger. Are now at the turn
mjl: Apparently my guess of five pitchers going was a bit off
Frae: Could walker come back
Pauly: You are basing it on logic...not sure 13-14 have any. Lol
Pauly: Frae...if that happens i will do a cartwheel right here in my living room ��
Frae: Well you have to expect the turn to take 1 p and it's probably walker but we will see
Frae: I am shocked two guys passed on him I see a big drop from him to the next group
Ken: It's hard to take a guy with that little experience as your sp1 so I sort of get it.
Pauly: I don't know...i see taillon and flsherty and clevenger around the same level as beuhler
Pauly: I guess im too high on them
Ken: With Lindor and Yelich, Krishna fits perfectly
Fresno Bob: I like buehler more than clevenger and clevenger a lot more than taillon and Flaherty
Frae: I also have clev ahead of those two but if walker isn't there and Davis is I agree with Ken
Fresno Bob: Fine on krush if no buehler
Frae: Segura andujar on the turn
Pauly: Holy shit...segura andujar on the turn
Frae: Wow
Ken: Wow that's great for us
Pauly: I agree that krush is a good fit but im obviously in the sp column
Frae: Yeah not the combo I would have guessed
Pauly: 15 couldve had the exact same labr team as sporer but same concept. They went pham/vlad
mjl: Apparently my guess of five pitchers going was a bit off
Ken: Just a smidge
Pauly: Did buehler's arm fall off and we didnt read it or something
Ken: He just went
Ken: Then Albies
Ken: We are up
Frae: Walk we and Albies go
Frae: Walker
Pauly: Damn buehler then albies
Pauly: Well...clev, flaherty and taillon have almost identical adp of 55
Frae: I'll be on the hitter island with Davis there
mjl: So pitcher or Davis?
Ken: Not an island Frae I'm strongly with you
Fresno Bob: Krush
Pauly: What sp go in the 72 and 79 range...lets look
Frae: Marquez berrios mad bum mikolas
Pauly: Berrios marquez bumgarner folty - such a huge difference
Pauly: As someone said flat no to paxton i am flat no to marquez and bumg
Frae: I actually like wheeler a bit lower more than both of those
Pauly: Hitters at that range: dahl puig carpenter ozuna
Frae: And even Price
Ken: See I see the hitter drop off as much more.
mjl: I like Krush a lot but I feel like getting a #2 SP and Gallo is better than Krush/Berrios
Pauly: I agree with mike. The sp dropoff is huge
Ken: There's only 1 pitcher behind us
Pauly: What do you mean
Frae: I just see so much variance in projections for these pitchers across sites I could see wheeler or even a guy like happ not being that far off. I don't know I just like hitting for security I think Davis is safe stats
Pauly: Im going to point out one last time that we only have one util slot. Which would be filled until davis somehow gets 10 at OF or 1b
Pauly: Just something to consider
Pauly: But there's nobody else out there who is banking 40 HR...right?
Ken: Krush is just such a perfect fit. Feels like it was planned, Avg early so we can take the hit and bank the power numbers.
Frae: He's the only 40+ hr guy projected on rotowires software
Pauly: Ken what did you mean theres only one pitcher behind us...you mean by adp?
Fresno Bob: I'm not afraid of filling UT
Ken: No i mean look at the draft board Paul. All the pitchers taken are by teams 1-11 (other than 1)
Ken: So the demand for pitchers is primarily by teams 13-15. We are in front of that on the way back
mjl: I think Ken means that since the taken pitchers are unevenly distributed (more people in 1-11) there's more chance of a decent pitcher sneaking back
Ken: Yes
Ken: Much more than in most drafts
Pauly: Okay...well im pretty sure at least 3 teams wont be taking pitcher
Frae: I'm not afraid of filling Ut there aren't many other ut only guys and in 15 team mixed we need a good bench anyway we can take who we want late without worrying.
Pauly: Just making sure every angle is covered. I can see the case for krush
Ken: I'm glad you objected it led to a great discussion
Pauly: But i still dont think theres mich of any chance of getting any of those 7 sp. maybe the last one, greinke
Frae: I love the debate no matter what we decide it's fun to talk it out
Pauly: If all of you want krush i will just cross my fingers
Frae: I know we are rolling the dice again but we know team 1 and 2 can't take another pitcher realistically and team 7 has 2 also. So 16 picks where pitcher could be in play and just team 11 with no pitching I vote Krush
mjl: I dunno. but I'm also biased by being a huge Gallo fan. Two-position qualified, four rounds later, and two of the projection systems on FG have him as better than Krush this year other than in AVG
mjl: but of course we might not end up getting him
mjl: https://www.fangraphs.com/projection...ers=0&sort=9,d
Frae: But that .225 avg is a lot harder to absorb than .247
Pauly: Do you guys see any path to krush playing in the field this season? Their LF situation is pretty iffy it seems
Ken: Also R and RBI will be hard for Gallo bc Their offense is terrible
mjl: only in interleague games i think. it's not like they have someone else to play at DH if they put him in the outfield
Pauly: I mean krush is significantly more valuable if he can gain OF early. Would be so nice. I dont think we are making any other pick at this point. Im ok with thay
Pauly: ok. davis then?
Pauly: he certainly feels like the safest pick
Pauly: I might have missed a series but i didnt see 10 NL road games on oakland's sched at all
mjl: they do have ten, exactly, but that'd be mid-August
mjl: pirates may 3-5, cardinals june 25-26, cubs aug 5-7, giants aug 13-14
mjl: i think he's just eating our UT slot
Pauly: I know. Im wishfully hoping that canha gets some run at dh or olson gets some dh time. Ive just been snake bit with lack of flexibility in thsi format in the past. It's my own personal thing. No worries. Take him
mjl: i def think if we take him we have to value multiposition players even higher
Pauly: Especially OF eligibles
Ken: What about draft dynamics
Ken: We want to be taking hitters this direction and pitchers the other direction
Pauly: I agree we should go hitter/pitcher with just about every set of picks ken
Pauly: Or vice versa lol
Pauly: So ken and keith and mike want krush. Im ok with it....
Pauly: Or does mike want to try and wait for gallo? Confused for a sec
mjl: i'm still on clevinger :P
mjl: but i thought everyone else was on davis
Frae: It's bob that's with me and Ken
Pauly: I see. Well bob makes it 3 vs 2
Pauly: I guess
Pauly: Mike - ken and keith make a pretty decent case that we should get a decent pitcher coming back due to draft dynamics. There are very few 40 HR guys. That was the argument that made it palatable to me. Krush is way better and more dependable than gallo. But we can still end with him too
mjl: I guess so. I just hate using the ut slot. But I can be outvoted
mjl: davis it is

[Fresno Bob]

my wife asked "what the fuck is up with your phone?" after that interchange above

[Ken]

Weird, my texts are getting to you out of order mjl, I wondered why you asked questions out of the blue sometimes, it seems like it was because my texts were delayed. My 12% comment was about Yelich who we talked about before this block of text.

Also these 3 were directly back to back within about 5 seconds:

Ken: With Lindor and Yelich, Krishna fits perfectly
Ken: That was Krush before autocorrect
Ken: But I'll always call him Krishna now

But they show up all over the place, even out of order on your side.

[Ken]

5 picks to our left since we picked, 4 of them hitters. Pitching is going to slide.

Team 5 is going to take a pitcher, but the others all have at least 1.

15 pitchers have been taken so far, and only ONE by the 3 teams to our right. There is relatively high demand for pitchers to our right, and relatively low to the left. So at this point we should be taking hitters in even rounds and pitchers in odd rounds, all else being equal.

[mjl]

Weird, my texts are getting to you out of order mjl, I wondered why you asked questions out of the blue sometimes, it seems like it was because my texts were delayed. My 12% comment was about Yelich who we talked about before this block of text.

Also these 3 were directly back to back within about 5 seconds:

Ken: With Lindor and Yelich, Krishna fits perfectly
Ken: That was Krush before autocorrect
Ken: But I'll always call him Krishna now

But they show up all over the place, even out of order on your side.

huh, that is really weird. Does make a lot more sense about the Krishna thing coming when it did.

[mjl]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing if you want to have opinions on who we should take late in the draft. It goes 750 players and there's no post-draft moves, if you didn't know the format.

[mjl]

Weird, my texts are getting to you out of order mjl, I wondered why you asked questions out of the blue sometimes, it seems like it was because my texts were delayed. My 12% comment was about Yelich who we talked about before this block of text.

Also these 3 were directly back to back within about 5 seconds:

Ken: With Lindor and Yelich, Krishna fits perfectly
Ken: That was Krush before autocorrect
Ken: But I'll always call him Krishna now

But they show up all over the place, even out of order on your side.

Ken, when did you send these? I'm just receiving them now and they're obviously related to some previous conversation:

I like Sporer but that labr team is a mess. Not one to follow (7:56 PST)
IMO reading the board is important, this board tells us draft a hitter
Berrios 60%
Madbum64
Agree Frae
What 7 pitchers (9:09 PST)
Who is the pitcher choice here if we go that way (9:32 PST)
I was typing the same as Frae (9:39 PST)
That's a ton of draft capitol for one category. I'm not anywhere close (10:03 PST)

[frae]

Ok so back at it this morning. Since our Krush pick here is who has gone as we sit 12 picks away from our round 5 pick...

Paxton
Puig
Votto
Correa
Vlad
Corbin
Realmuto
Diaz
Torres
G Sanchez

So none of our pitching targets have gone as we as a group didn't love Corbin or Paxton and we had no plans of being the first to take a closer. We are talking about when to jump in on a closer. We see a group of about 7 I think that we think are reliable and depending on how things fall I would not be surprised to see us go SP/CL in rounds 5 and 6 here. We are hoping to see one of Clev/Tailon/Flaherty/Berrios/Greinkie to make it to us and at this point I'd say the odds look good since I imagine some teams will jump into closer and some teams based on their drafts so far need hitters. Always tough to predict but so far I am glad we went Krush and hopefully we get an SP2 we like.

[mjl]

since then, Pham, Seager, Murphy, Suarez. If Clevinger or Taillon or Flaherty gets back to us I will be thrilled. Eight picks to go.

[mjl]

huh. Taillon taken, then Treinen as the second closer off the board which is quite surprising.