2K19: Yu Darvish

[onejayhawk]

Forget Adalberto Mondesi, Yu Darvish is the player I have seen with the biggest divergence of opinion. Paul Sporer ranks Darvish #33, which translates to about #110 - #125. Steamer projects him at #30, earning $12 in NL only leagues. Yet, several raters leave him off the list entirely. He's nowhere on the top 300 of ESPN or RotoChamp. Fantrax equates Darvish with Jesus Luzardo and Brent Honeywell, ie high upside crapshoot.

So, where does he project and what are you willing to pay for his high ceiling?

Steamer 139 IP, 3.75 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, $12

J

[joncarlos]

Shrug emoji.

President of baseball operations Theo Epstein said Saturday that Darvish (elbow) is in "really great shape" and will be "full go on a normal schedule in spring training,"

Darvish has spent the early portion of the offseason recovering from an arthroscopic debridement procedure for his throwing elbow, which he underwent in September.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/cubs-yu-darvish-gains-clearance-for-spring/

But, but, but... he was shut down with shoulder issues and elbow issues and triceps issues and back issues, and I have no idea if all those things are fixed. The shoulder scares the crap out of me.

[Ken]

I personally prefer not to take on the amount of risk that comes with Darvish. Sure, he could rebound and turn into an ace again. But it doesn't seem likely to me.

And given that we know *something* is wrong, relative to his elite years, it's difficult for me to say I'm going to be good at pinpointing if he's going to be at 75% of his former form or 25% (i.e. waiver wire fodder).

You always have risk in your teams, and the deeper the league the more you consider this kind of play. But I just prefer my risk in other areas. Give me a solid team of a couple stars, several solid contributors, a few boring vets and a few young guys who are on their way up. I just don't personally enjoy taking on the injury risk - for me the floor is too low on these type players to consider anywhere outside of dollar days in a typical league. I'm sure he'll go before that, and if that happens I'll let someone else play the arm injury lotto.

[onejayhawk]

All of which begs the question, where is the reasonable balance of risk and upside? If it isn't at $12, what about $9? In ranking terms, if he projects #100, is #115 low enough, or is 130 better? Should you pass after $7 or until #170 or go do-not-draft?

How far down is far enough?

One thing seems sure, he'll be a good early call in auctions.

J

[mgwiz22]

In my 14 team mixed league I would go about 6 because we have a liberal faab policy. I would think that league context would be a very important factor here.

[Ken]

All of which begs the question, where is the reasonable balance of risk and upside? If it isn't at $12, what about $9? In ranking terms, if he projects #100, is #115 low enough, or is 130 better? Should you pass after $7 or until #170 or go do-not-draft?

How far down is far enough?

One thing seems sure, he'll be a good early call in auctions.

J

It depends on what you want your risk portfolio to look like. Personally I'm just not huge on taking injured pitchers. I would not likely take him in the top ~200.

His ADP in NFBC is 159.

Shane Bieber goes ~2 picks after Yu. Give me Bieber. I'll take the risk on the young guy producing at the MLB level like he did on the minors before an injury risk.
Nathan Eovaldi goes ~9 picks after Yu. Give me Eovaldi. He's an injury risk too but at least we can be confident that he's still capable of pitching well after the injury.
Jose Quintana goes ~28 picks after Yu. Give me Quintana. I trust him more than I trust Yu for 2019.

[Sour Masher]

I personally prefer not to take on the amount of risk that comes with Darvish. Sure, he could rebound and turn into an ace again. But it doesn't seem likely to me.

And given that we know *something* is wrong, relative to his elite years, it's difficult for me to say I'm going to be good at pinpointing if he's going to be at 75% of his former form or 25% (i.e. waiver wire fodder).

You always have risk in your teams, and the deeper the league the more you consider this kind of play. But I just prefer my risk in other areas. Give me a solid team of a couple stars, several solid contributors, a few boring vets and a few young guys who are on their way up. I just don't personally enjoy taking on the injury risk - for me the floor is too low on these type players to consider anywhere outside of dollar days in a typical league. I'm sure he'll go before that, and if that happens I'll let someone else play the arm injury lotto.

I'm with you. I generally avoid guys like this for the same reasons. This year, though there are guys that I'm tempted by that I just hope someone else likes enough that I don't get caught price enforcing. Specifically, I am tempted by the idea that this is the year that Kershaw's price tanks to the point where I get him again (I had him in his heyday). Also, Bumgarner. Both big risks, but the payoff is so tempting.

[onejayhawk]

It depends on what you want your risk portfolio to look like. Personally I'm just not huge on taking injured pitchers. I would not likely take him in the top ~200.

His ADP in NFBC is 159.

Shane Bieber goes ~2 picks after Yu. Give me Bieber. I'll take the risk on the young guy producing at the MLB level like he did on the minors before an injury risk.
Nathan Eovaldi goes ~9 picks after Yu. Give me Eovaldi. He's an injury risk too but at least we can be confident that he's still capable of pitching well after the injury.
Jose Quintana goes ~28 picks after Yu. Give me Quintana. I trust him more than I trust Yu for 2019.

That's what happens with ADP. How did Quintana get last? I'd take him second behind Darvish. Suffice to say at #150 I'm buying Yu.

J

[joncarlos]

That's what happens with ADP. How did Quintana get last? I'd take him second behind Darvish. Suffice to say at #150 I'm buying Yu.

J

Q wasn't all that good last year. I've always been a fan but his K/9 was down a lot (from 9.9 to 8.2), his walks were up (2.9 to 3.5) and he had a 4.03 ERA. He's in a tough division now. Even though he made 32 starts he only pitched 174 innings. I am not sure I take him over Yu, but that's based mostly on the hope that I can get a similar pitcher 80 picks later. What's Mike Leake up to these days? Rick Porcello?

[Gregg]

We have roster cut down day tomorrow. Darvish was bought at auction last year for $33. I traded a mediocre X contract to a contender for him in the hopes of Darvish becoming Darvish before this years auction.

No lightening in a bottle. No big deal. He goes back in the pool tomorrow. I expect he will go for $20-$25 in this years auction. 12 team NL only.

I do not need to take a chance on him this year. If it was a normal year, I would go to $15 assuming he is starting the year healthy enough to be in the rotation.

I can't help wonder if some of his ailments are not brought on my anxiety. He seems to be a bit of a head case. If that is correct that is harder to fix and stay corrected than healing physically.

I do hope some body picks him up and keeps him, highly doubtful.

[Ken]

Q wasn't all that good last year. I've always been a fan but his K/9 was down a lot (from 9.9 to 8.2), his walks were up (2.9 to 3.5) and he had a 4.03 ERA. He's in a tough division now. Even though he made 32 starts he only pitched 174 innings. I am not sure I take him over Yu, but that's based mostly on the hope that I can get a similar pitcher 80 picks later. What's Mike Leake up to these days? Rick Porcello?

Q's walks were back down to 2.7 in the 2nd half last year. I wouldn't be worried about that aspect. I'm not in love with him overall, but he's much more reliable than Yu.

Mike Leake is not a bad target for the end of your draft if you can stomach the 5.8 K/9 and low win total to go with your 1.3 WHIP.

You are going to have to take Porcello 2+ rounds before Q, so I'm not sure that fits your 80 picks later.

[onejayhawk]

Q's walks were back down to 2.7 in the 2nd half last year. I wouldn't be worried about that aspect. I'm not in love with him overall, but he's much more reliable than Yu.

Mike Leake is not a bad target for the end of your draft if you can stomach the 5.8 K/9 and low win total to go with your 1.3 WHIP.

You are going to have to take Porcello 2+ rounds before Q, so I'm not sure that fits your 80 picks later.

Wow. I grant that either Q or Porcello is more reliable than Yu. That said, how in the world is Porcello two rounds better than Quintana? Equalish maybe, but even then I lean to Q.

Paul Sporer (note that both his list and PL list are from October) has Quintana at #48 and Porcello at #52. Yu is #33 as noted above.

J

[Ken]

Wow. I grant that either Q or Porcello is more reliable than Yu. That said, how in the world is Porcello two rounds better than Quintana? Equalish maybe, but even then I lean to Q.

Paul Sporer (note that both his list and PL list are from October) has Quintana at #48 and Porcello at #52. Yu is #33 as noted above.

J

Some points in favor of Porcello:

1) He has made at least 27 starts for 10 straight years (and all 33 the last 3 years).
2) He won the Cy Young in 2016 and his K rate has improved each subsequent year after.
3) He pitches for Boston, which should help the wins.

[onejayhawk]

Some points in favor of Porcello:

1) He has made at least 27 starts for 10 straight years (and all 33 the last 3 years).
2) He won the Cy Young in 2016 and his K rate has improved each subsequent year after.
3) He pitches for Boston, which should help the wins.

Funny you mention 2016. The season conjures words like magical because it stands out like a sore thumb. He has also thrown over 600 IP in the last three years and almost 800 since he came to Boston, is on the wrong side of 30, and is sub-4.0 in K/BB. Boston has him pitching for Ks but eventually that will tell on his arm.

Porcello is a classic innings eater which has value. That said, I worry about a breakdown but the real problem is that 2018 is his upside. Expect something more like 2017 and fear the possibility of 2015.

J