Jon Jay for Corey Hart?

[overkill94]

12-team NL-only keeper league, OBP instead of BA

I would give up Jay ($1 through 2013) and Paul Janish (was going to drop him anyway)

for

Corey Hart (unkeepable price)

Seems like it would be a clear upgrade and a deal I should do, but who knows whether Good Hart or Mediocre Hart will show up this year. Plus, with Berkman and Holliday banged up, Jay's in line for a good amount of playing time (at least in the short-term) and possibly a starting gig next year since Berkman's on a 1-year contract.

Too risky or a no-brainer?

[revo]

I couldn't pull the trigger on this trade fast enough.

[chancellor]

What revo said.

[overkill94]

I couldn't pull the trigger on this trade fast enough.

Turns out that wasn't what the other owner had in mind after all. What he's actually proposing is

Stephen Drew, Corey Hart, and Wandy Rodriguez

for

Janish, James McDonald ($1 through 2012), Danny Espinosa ($5 through 2013), and Jon Jay ($1 through 2013)

Which I am inclined not to do. Doesn't seem like any of the higher priced players are that much of an upgrade over the cheap keepers, especially when taking long-term keeper value into consideration.

[revo]

Turns out that wasn't what the other owner had in mind after all. What he's actually proposing is

Stephen Drew, Corey Hart, and Wandy Rodriguez

for

Janish, James McDonald ($1 through 2012), Danny Espinosa ($5 through 2013), and Jon Jay ($1 through 2013)

Which I am inclined not to do. Doesn't seem like any of the higher priced players are that much of an upgrade over the cheap keepers, especially when taking long-term keeper value into consideration.

What he's proposing is even more of a no-brainer than the last offer. Not sure what it is you're seeing with your players, but in an OBP league, I don't see anyone that's a sure bet on your side. Granted, Drew & Hart are not OBP fiends, but if you want to try and win this year, I can't see how this is anything but a huge upgrade over your guys.

[overkill94]

Really? Here's how I see it:

- Espinosa is already a more valuable fantasy player than Drew
- Wandy is an upgrade over JMac, but not by as much as you might think
- Hart has struggled since coming back from injury and unlikely to get even close to last year's numbers while Jay has been excellent through his first 350 major league at-bats

It's definitely an upgrade overall, but is it really enough to give up three keepers?

To put things in perspective, Anthony Rizzo, Dee Gordon, and Mike Adams was enough to get Tulowitzki, Prado, and Oswalt in a trade that happened last week. Dumping teams give up exorbitant amounts of talent for quality keepers and I just don't think I'm getting enough back.

[revo]

- Espinosa is already a more valuable fantasy player than Drew

How so? Since you're using Jon Jay's full career.....Espinosa's career OBP is a paltry .294. The only positive of Espinosa over Drew so far has been the HRs this season, but Espinosa also only has a .305 OBP. I'd take Drew this rest of this year.

- Wandy is an upgrade over JMac, but not by as much as you might think

Please explain, 'cause I don't see it at all. Wandy has a 3.62 K/BB rate vs. McDonald's 1.70 this season. Wandy also has a few years of 160+ Ks, while you're assuming McDonald may get there one day (Mac D's seasonal high is just 68).

Hart has struggled since coming back from injury and unlikely to get even close to last year's numbers while Jay has been excellent through his first 350 major league at-bats

I mean this with all due respect, but c'mon now. All things considered, Jay has no job this year besides filling in. Hart hit 31 HRs with 102 RBIs last year. If you want to think a fill-in with some signs of talent is better than an All Star who went 30/100, then there may not be any convincing you to go for it this year over keeping an eye peeled on the future (which is always a losing proposition, IMO).

Even in an NL-only, I don't see Janish, Jay or McDonald as being anything besides replacement level.

[overkill94]

How so? Since you're using Jon Jay's full career.....Espinosa's career OBP is a paltry .294. The only positive of Espinosa over Drew so far has been the HRs this season, but Espinosa also only has a .305 OBP. I'd take Drew this rest of this year.



Please explain, 'cause I don't see it at all. Wandy has a 3.62 K/BB rate vs. McDonald's 1.70 this season. Wandy also has a few years of 160+ Ks, while you're assuming McDonald may get there one day (Mac D's seasonal high is just 68).



I mean this with all due respect, but c'mon now. All things considered, Jay has no job this year besides filling in. Hart hit 31 HRs with 102 RBIs last year. If you want to think a fill-in with some signs of talent is better than an All Star who went 30/100, then there may not be any convincing you to go for it this year over keeping an eye peeled on the future (which is always a losing proposition, IMO).

Even in an NL-only, I don't see Janish, Jay or McDonald as being anything besides replacement level.

I'm under no illusion that Jay is better than Hart, I'm just trying to show how the gap isn't wide enough for my tastes.

I do fall into the category of looking to the future while trying to compete now, but it has served me well by being in the money just about every year. None of the three guys I'd be getting would be considered impact players and I'm not comfortable trading keepers for minor upgrades. Last year I traded Ike Davis for David Wright and it did pretty much nothing to help me in the standings. Of course I got a superior player, but Davis was putting up pretty good numbers himself and would look pretty damn good on my team right now.

[Hammer]

Youre overvaluing your mediocre players. I make the deal without hesitation.

[gcstomp]

I think lots of us tend to see that extra bit of value in our own guys to varying degrees. But in this case, it really is an open and shut jump on it type of deal if you want to win this year relative to the non impact filler type guys you are giving up.

The rebuild offer that you feel slapped around by is the trade where someone gave up A Rizzo and D Gordon, but those are 2 rotoball monster farm guys, and I would think it would take serious star power to land those particular farm guys that you will have cheap for years.

[Lucky]

I'm under no illusion that Jay is better than Hart, I'm just trying to show how the gap isn't wide enough for my tastes.

I do fall into the category of looking to the future while trying to compete now, but it has served me well by being in the money just about every year. None of the three guys I'd be getting would be considered impact players and I'm not comfortable trading keepers for minor upgrades. Last year I traded Ike Davis for David Wright and it did pretty much nothing to help me in the standings. Of course I got a superior player, but Davis was putting up pretty good numbers himself and would look pretty damn good on my team right now.

You make some good points, but in most leagues you have to choose one strategy or another in order to win. You say looking to the future while competing now has served you well. Being in the money is fine, if money is what you are playing for. But, nobody remembers who finishes in the money, only who wins. Has your strategy netted you some wins? If so, I'd say stick with it. If it only keeps you in the money, it's another matter.

We have a guy in our league who is a great player, but would never make the tough trades to move him from "in the money" to a championship. He was always worried about next year.

We had another owner who was leading by a mile coming down the stretch one year, and decided to make a couple of trades to help him "next year". He was caught from behind the final week.

I can't tell you to make this deal (because it is possible there is another better deal waiting out there), but I can tell you that you seem to love your own guys too much in order to make the trades you need to win.

[overkill94]

Rizzo and Gordon are good, but I don't see them as the blue chippers that should net Tulo, Oswalt, and Prado.

No, I've never won, but the trend seems to be the teams who won were built from within (which is why young keepers net so much in return). Last year's winner had Hanley, Prince, and Braun because he got them as minor leaguers and stuck with them and ended up extending them. Unfortunately my team's never been bad enough where I could make a dump trade to acquire a stud keeper so I'm always in the in-between range. Basically, I don't see Drew, Wandy, or Hart being able to make up the difference for me to jump more than one spot in the standings - which to me isn't worth the loss of keepers.

I tried my best to offer up players with keeper value who won't necessarily help me this year like Johan, Kyle Blanks, Fernando Martinez, and Jordan Lyles but this particular owner already has a full farm and wanted major league guys. Basically, I feel like I could find a better fit from another team.

[tinitoys]

what place are you currently at? If you do make this trade, do you feel your chances to win are much better? Can you beat the owner that picked up tulowitzki, prado and oswalt?

[overkill94]

what place are you currently at? If you do make this trade, do you feel your chances to win are much better? Can you beat the owner that picked up tulowitzki, prado and oswalt?

This is where my point comes into play. Right now I'm in 4th at 74.5 points, 3rd is at 80, 2nd is at 87, and 1st is at 89. The owner who pulled off the Tulo trade is right in front of me in 3rd, the 2nd place owner made a trade to get Ethier, Upton, Theriot, and Garza (by giving up Bryce Harper, Aroldis Chapman, and Casey Kelly), and the 1st place owner has been standing pat so far.

I did just get Utley back from the DL and I made a trade to acquire Will Venable and Ramon Hernandez last week so hopefully my offense will get an uptick. If I truly want to go for it I'd probably put Espinosa and Sands on the block and get whatever the lower placed teams have left (in more of a blockbuster type deal like the 2nd and 3rd place owners pulled off).

[mjl]

doh Venable.