2K19: Teoscar Hernandez

[onejayhawk]

In 2016, Hernandez broke in with Houston, gaining over 100 AB but no prospect of real playing time in their crowded OF. In 2017 he was traded to Toronto where he rang the bell for a .274 BA and 8 HR in September--shades of Matt Olson. In 2018, it appeared Hernandez was stuck behind Randal Grichuk and Curtis Granderson but he was a popular play on the hopes that some of the power was real and that those in front of him were shaky.

This proved to be prescient as Hernandez managed 523 PA and 22 HR. However, after a sterling April, Hernandez went .229/.291/.437 the rest of the way. Worse, he was considered a speed play from three minor league seasons of 30+ SB. In 2018 he managed only 5 SB at a dismal 50% success rate.

Steamer projections have him regressing to a .236 BA and 15 HR on sharply reduced PA. Do you believe them or do you expect positive development is more likely? Depending on your league values, Hernandez earned $9-$13 in 2018. Is that close a floor, an expected value or close to a ceiling? ADP is around #300. is that high or low?

Ziele - 400 PA, .246/.308/.464, 19 HR, 6 SB
Depth Chart - 385 PA, .236/.301/.434, 15 HR, 7 SB

J

[TranaGreg]

The big question is his defense. He absolutely looked lost several times last year - there are real concerns that he might not be playable in the OF, and with DH filled his playing time may indeed be reduced.

Having said that he's playing winter ball focusing on his d and reports so far are pretty positive. This will be something to monitor during spring training.

[onejayhawk]

He was reputed to have solid defense, possibly able to play all three spots. That didn't happen. DH is primarily occupied by Kendrys Morales--not exactly Big Papi. 1B is justin Smoak, backed up by Morales. LF is Billy McKinney, who had a productive September but has never been a top prospect. If Hernandez hits, the AB are available.

J

[Ken]

LF is Billy McKinney, who had a productive September but has never been a top prospect.

Wait, what? McKinney was a 1st round pick and then a top 100 prospect for a couple years

[onejayhawk]

Making the top 100 does not make a prospect hot. Was he ever top 25? Was he ever top 1-2 in his organization or top 3-4 at his position? You are really saying he has never been a nobody or on the fringe, which I will concede. He has been a decent mid-grade prospect.

Here's the FanGraphs line.

I’m giving the Blue Jays credit, they are finding out who they have going forward by promoting and playing their prospects like McKinney. The 24-year-old outfielder was never highly valued with the prospect boys here at FanGraphs giving him a 40 overall grade with his Hit and Power grading out the highest.

Obviously, FanGraphs is not the same as the Jays scouting team, but it's what we have.

J

[Gregg]

You seem to be arguing in favor of Teoscar for 2019.

[Ken]

Making the top 100 does not make a prospect hot.

You posted "top" prospect not "hot" prospect. He was a top 100 prospect consecutive years. Top 100 lists are pretty generally accepted as "top prospect" lists, as are top 10 lists per team, but you can apply your own critieria (randomly top 25 overall is your cutoff even though that's in no way an industry standard) and then tell others they are wrong for disagreeing with your one off opinion... I guess.

Billy McKinney was certainly a top prospect at one time.

Was he ever top 1-2 in his organization or top 3-4 at his position?

Yes.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cubs-athletics-trade-jeff-samardzija-jason-hammel-addison-russell-billy-mckinney/

"Cubs get OF Billy Mckinney, 19, 2013 first-round pick and Baseball America‘s No. 2 Oakland prospect behind Russell"

Also, your FG quote is odd since they had him at 45 FV right along with Gleyber

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-chicago-cubs/

[onejayhawk]

Fine. I will concede he was once a better prospect than the last couple of years. Still, if the best you have is a 45 score five years ago, why bother insisting?

J

[Ken]

Fine. I will concede he was once a better prospect than the last couple of years. Still, if the best you have is a 45 score five years ago, why bother insisting?

J

Fair - I don't know if he was ever >45, I had just come across that and it contradicted the other FG quote.
Anyway, moving on, the never a top prospect just jumped off the page as wrong for me and I had to question.

I'm not a huge fan of Teoscar, I doubt I'll have any shares this year. But there's some upside available if you are not too risk averse.

[Gregg]

Fair - I don't know if he was ever >45, I had just come across that and it contradicted the other FG quote.
Anyway, moving on, the never a top prospect just jumped off the page as wrong for me and I had to question.

I'm not a huge fan of Teoscar, I doubt I'll have any shares this year. But there's some upside available if you are not too risk averse.

Yep, no shares of Teoscar for me either.

[onejayhawk]

Hernandez' ADP seems to be around 300. As of 3 January, his NFBC ADP is #283 while McKinney is #540. That would make him draftable (barely) in a 12 team mixed. At that price I'm just getting interested.

https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp

J

[Ken]

Hernandez' ADP seems to be around 300. As of 3 January, his NFBC ADP is #283 while McKinney is #540. That would make him draftable (barely) in a 12 team mixed. At that price I'm just getting interested.

https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp

J

Don't weigh the NFBC data too heavily for this type player. Remember he's a high risk / high reward type. Exactly what you are looking for in this range in those big tournaments like NFBC where you have to differentiate in order to win against a large competition base. But that masks the risk side you'd want to avoid in a regular league scenario.

[onejayhawk]

Don't weigh the NFBC data too heavily for this type player. Remember he's a high risk / high reward type. Exactly what you are looking for in this range in those big tournaments like NFBC where you have to differentiate in order to win against a large competition base. But that masks the risk side you'd want to avoid in a regular league scenario.

Agreed. Still ADP has its uses and NFBC drafts are more aware than, say, CBS or Yahoo internal drafts. He draftable as a flier even in mixed leagues. The question I have is what his value is in a deep league? In 2018 he earned about $13 in AL only.