AL keepers - early look

[SlideRule]

Looking at my possible keepers for 2019. 10-team AL only, keep up to 8 at current contracts (A-B-C). I finished 2nd last year and got lucky grabbing Mondesi, Villar, and Pham for pretty cheap on FAAB during the season. Here's my list. Who's in/out/on the fringe?

$5 A Adalberto Mondesi SS | KC
$8 A Jonathan Villar 2B | BAL
$6 A Tommy Pham OF | TB
$8 A Kyle Tucker OF | HOU
$25 B Carlos Carrasco P | CLE
$5 A Mychal Givens P | BAL
$5 A Tyler Glasnow P | TB
$1 A Marco Gonzales P | SEA
$5 A Wily Peralta P | KC
---
$1 B Robinson Chirinos C | HOU
$7 A Franklin Barreto 2B,SS | OAK

I guess my big questions are:
- do Peralta and Givens get closer jobs?
- is Tucker worth keeping at $8, given I'd have him for 2 more years?
- Carrasco at $25 vs Glasnow at $5 or Gonzalez at $1? Or all three?

Right now I think probably Givens or Peralta would be the one to not make the cut.

[TS Garp]

Wow, you are loaded. Definitely keep Tucker, no questions asked. Let Barreto go.

Can you package Gonzales or Chirinos and Peralta or Givens for an upgrade somewhere? You have 10 legitimate keepers, so you really need to do a couple of 2 for 1's or a 3 for 1. Is there an owner who doesn't have 8 decent keepers?

I think the Orioles will very likely showcase Givens in the closer role to pump up his value and then deal him. And Peralta is likely to close, too.

[Gregg]

Definitely keep Tucker.

Agree with TS you need to do some trading.

I would keep Givens over Peralta as I like Given's skill set better.

I would keep Carrasco and Chirinos over Glasnow. With only 8 keepers I would not use up a spot in the hopes that Glasnow figures it out. I wouldn't mind getting him back in the auction at a reasonable price, I just couldn't justify a spot with your other keepers.

[Hornsby]

I'm hearing that Tucker might be dealt now that they've signed Brantley, maybe in a deal for Realmuto...

[SlideRule]

Yeah, I wonder what the Brantley signing means for Tucker... this FG article also mentions maybe he just bumps Reddick eventually, but that seems like a harder hurdle to pass for Tucker than he had last year.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/michael-brantley-is-good-and-on-the-astros-now/

Unfortunately off-season trading is notoriously hard in my league, especially in these 2-1 type deals as nobody likes to trade away one of their "good" keepers, even if they're getting more overall "value" back. I will certainly dangle guys and try though.

I've seen Glasnow rated pretty high in some places, so surprised you'd take an expiring $1 Chirinos over the potential for a $5 high-upside starter for 2 more years. That said, TINSTAAPP. My guess is he'd go for something in the $10-$15 range at auction. Carrasco would probably be around $30 for reference, but with a much higher likelihood of earning that $30 of course.

[TS Garp]

Yeah, I would definitely hold on to Glasnow.

[Ken]

Wow, you are loaded.

I like Mondesi, Pham, Villar, and Carrasco. The first 3 have good value relative to contract, and Carrasco is probably on par.

But outside of those 4 I'm not overwhelmed in a 10 team league. I'd be concerned some about keeping 4 mid-tier players if my competitors are keeping stars instead.

What am I missing?

[TS Garp]

What am I missing?

The fact that it's an AL Only? In a mixed, I would agree with you but in AL Only, those are excellent keepers.

[cleo]

I agree with Ken.... if this was a keeper list from my 12 team AL only league, this is middle of the pack at best. From his list, I would probably keep Mondesi, Pham, Villar, Carrasco, Tucker and Chirinos.

here is my keeper list for comparison sake. Thanks to anyone who cares to comment on my list.

I am not sure on Barnes, Bieber or Odorizzi but am leaning towards keeping them.


a few things from my league to keep in mind:
we can keep up to 15 active and 3 minor league players.
we can extend contracts for $5 per year, but I do have a number of 2019 contracts that were extended last year, so I am not able to extend further. I plan to extend contracts of Judge and Morton.
we use Sv+Holds, so that is why closers are lower price than most leagues.
we use OB% in place of Avg



player contract $$$
Khris Davis DH | OAK 19 $27
Stephen Piscotty RF | OAK 20 $11
Aaron Judge RF | NYY 19 $12
Yuli Gurriel 1B | HOU 19 $2
C.J. Cron DH | MIN 20 $11
Shohei Ohtani DH | LAA 20 $2
Trevor Bauer SP | CLE 19 $6
Charlie Morton SP | HOU 19 $4
James Paxton SP | NYY 19 $20
Shane Bieber SP | CLE 20 $14
Jake Odorizzi SP | MIN 19 $7
Aroldis Chapman RP | NYY 19 $8
Shane Greene RP | DET 19 $4
Matt Barnes RP | BOS 20 $10

Michael Kopech SP | CHW xx $2
Luis Robert OF | CHW xx $2
Brandon Marsh RF | LAA xx $2
Blaze Jordan 1B | xx $2

[Ken]

The fact that it's an AL Only? In a mixed, I would agree with you but in AL Only, those are excellent keepers.

No, I was aware that it was AL only. I play in 12 team AL Only leagues and this list seems ok, but not great for that format. In 10 team leagues it seems average.

[SlideRule]

I’m not saying my list is amazing, but I’d be surprised if anyone in an only league would not keep a closer at $5. Even a crappy closer, with the title will go for $12-$17. And sure Gonzales and Glasgow could suck, but at auction they have to represent at least $5-$10 of value, no?

Inflation typically runs around 20-30%.

[Ken]

So first off let me say I probably came off too harsh. I certainly don't think you have a bad list. I just didn't want to reinforce that you have a great list of keepers and make you think that you should not try to make some moves to improve. I think you have a good start on a good keeper list. I don't think it's great.

Now, closers. A couple different angles to discuss.

1) While a hitter could move down the lineup and still have value, closers aren't that way. If they move down in the pecking order their value moves close to $0. You asked the question yourself in the intial post whether they had the job. Since we don't even know, it's hard to give them much value.
2) I would caution you against using auction dynamics as a reason to keep a player at a certain price. You noted that crappy closers go for $12-$17 in your league. In that case I'd likely trade crappy closers. It's the "value" that we are looking for at this point, not the price. If I have Lance McCullers on an expiring contract, and someone in another league is silly enough to draft him in a redraft, that doesn't mean I should keep him. Don't let the prices other people place on a player effect your view of their actual value. A crappy closer isn't actually *worth* $12-17. Ken Giles was worth less than $5 in your format last year, even though he racked up 26 saves. Don't let the fact that your league chases saves mean you overvalue closers. Pick up a 2019 version of Jose LeClerc mid season instead and bank the $12.

As far as Gonzales and Glasnow, there's some potential there and I would not advise against keeping them. I think they could be worth $10 each certainly.

Hope this helps!!

[cleo]

not harsh at all Ken. We all value and see players differently. This is what makes our game great.

[Gregg]

I’m not saying my list is amazing, but I’d be surprised if anyone in an only league would not keep a closer at $5. Even a crappy closer, with the title will go for $12-$17. And sure Gonzales and Glasgow could suck, but at auction they have to represent at least $5-$10 of value, no?

Inflation typically runs around 20-30%.

I think your list is very solid. With only 80 keepers there will be a lot to buy and you will have a lot of money.

I also do not think Ken was too harsh. He gives very good input. Even if I do not agree with him he has enough credibility that it makes me take a second or third look. I really appreciate that.

[SlideRule]

Really appreciate all the feedback and discussion here, folks, thanks. To Ken in particular, your commentary is always insightful, well thought-out, and backed by reason - I definitely don't mind if you don't find my list more than average! As for the points about closers - they are good ones. A low-end closer has basically a bipolar distribution of probably value outcomes - one around zero, and one around the average value for a "closer." This is unlike a good position player, who probably has a binomial distribution of likely values around his prediction. So yes, it's more of a dice roll on the closer, except one where the dice maybe has three 1s and a 4-5-6 on the other sides... I guess at this early stage I'm assuming Givens and Peralta will be named their teams' closer, but we know they could each easily lose the job or be dealt into a MR role.

By me saying a crappy closer is "worth $12-$17" I guess I mean at pre-season auction phase, the "market" is likely to value players of that type in that dollar range. In essence, that's basically what they are worth at that time then, right? If someone wins a player at auction for $15, at least two teams thought he was worth $14. Of course that doesn't mean he'll earn that much, but it means if I want to get a player with some chance at collecting saves (at auction, at least) I need to plan to pay around that much, or keep them.

It's good advice to not let auction dynamics dictate perceived player values, but I'm not really doing that in simply estimating what the nominal "expected" price of a player is pre-auction.

Anyways, I think relative to my 10-team league my list will be in the top third (in terms of "value"), but lacking any big name stud keepers (save Carrasco?) which is a bit concerning. So it's good I'll have cash to spend as I'll have to fight inflation on the high-dollar players.