2K19: Clayton Kershaw

[Sour Masher]

I've long been a Keshaw apologist when it comes to his postseason struggles. I've said many times that he may go down as the best pitcher of my lifetime. I'm a big fan. Still, it is hard to ignore what a stain on his legacy is his subpar postseason performances. A 4.28 ERA in 145 postseason innings is no long all that small of a sample size. I know lots of folks get frustrated by "old school" non-stat people talking about clutch and all over hard stars. I'm one of those people that get frustrated by that. But it is getting to the point where there seems to be something to it with Kershaw. As much as I still love the guy, I no longer think of him as an all-time great.

Does anyone have any theories for his postseason career, if it isn't lack of clutchness?

[Gregg]

Maybe a full regular season lets him pitch within himself. Short playoff series (even a 7 games) might get him amped up and try to over throw or throw at the top end of his ability causing less positive production. Early runs add to that pressure, causing him to "try harder" rather than slow the game down and do what he does best.

[Judge Jude]

well, in two consecutive postseason starts vs STL in 2013-14, he allowed 15 ER in 10.6 IP. presumably he was tipping his pitches there. he's 3.61 without that.

he also allowed 10 ER in 15.1 postseason IP before he turned age 22 or had a 175 IP MLB season, costing him 0.28 more.

the rest is a 3.33 postseason ERA in 118 postseason IP, which is similar to the postseason ERA of 2008 Dodgers teammate (!) Greg Maddux's 3.28, for example.

yeah, that's cherrypicking, of course. but it's not like he never pitches a good postseason game.

I would be interested to see his postseason strand rate.

finally, not everyone can be MISTER CLUTCH in the postseason like Hall of Famer (!) Jack Morris, who dropped his career regular-season ERA of 3.90 all the way to an overpowering ...... wait for it, wait for it...... 3.80 in the postseason (you can look it up).

[TranaGreg]

This doesn't address his past off-seasons, but he just isn't the pitcher he used to be. With his velo down his margin for error is so much smaller, and a great hitting team like the Sox will expose that. He can still have great games, but he's simply not the 2015 version of himself anymore.

[Gregg]

This doesn't address his past off-seasons, but he just isn't the pitcher he used to be. With his velo down his margin for error is so much smaller, and a great hitting team like the Sox will expose that. He can still have great games, but he's simply not the 2015 version of himself anymore.

26 starts this year, 27 in 2017, 21 in 2016.

This years era 2.73 and whip 1.04 vs 2017 era 2.32 and whip of .95 vs 2016 era 1.69 and .072.

He is only 30 years old. I am not ready to write him off just yet.

I doubt he is kept at $47 in our NL only 5x5 12 teams but I would be willing to be he still goes over $40 next year. If he doesn't he will be on my team (and I do have concerns about his back).

[senorsheep]

Haven't many of his postseason fails come on short rest? I could be wrong, but I think I recall a breakout of his postseason appearances by "days since prior appearance," and there was a noticeable drop-off in his performance when he pitched on three days rest or less.

[Art Vandelay]

is kershaw opting out?

[Gregg]

is kershaw opting out?

I have no idea if he will or won't.

I have to think the Dodgers might want to try to extend him a couple of years.

[revo]

Anyone concerned that his velocity fell by 1.7 mph? His FB now regularly sits at 91. And probably a by-product of that is his K% fell from 10.4 to 8.6. Time to downgrade him, or is this just his back troubles?

[chancellor]

Anyone concerned that his velocity fell by 1.7 mph? His FB now regularly sits at 91. And probably a by-product of that is his K% fell from 10.4 to 8.6. Time to downgrade him, or is this just his back troubles?

Yes and yes, IMO. I thought he'd still return $30 value in a NL only league with 170 IP. He made it to 161 IP, but at 2.71/1.04, 155 Ks, and 9 Ws, I don't think he made near $30. With his back trouble, I just don't see a lot of upside from his 2018 numbers.

[Judge Jude]

HQ had him at $20 of value in 2018 in 5x5 ($19 in 4x4)

[revo]

Yes and yes, IMO. I thought he'd still return $30 value in a NL only league with 170 IP. He made it to 161 IP, but at 2.71/1.04, 155 Ks, and 9 Ws, I don't think he made near $30. With his back trouble, I just don't see a lot of upside from his 2018 numbers.

Right now I have Kershaw as my #14 SP for '19......but even that may be too high.

[TS Garp]

It'll be interesting to see if he opts out.

You can't reasonably expect more than 160 innings next season and it's tough to use the logic these days that he may only give you 160 innings, but those innings will be so far and away better than any other pitcher that it's worth it. He was still excellent this season overall, but whereas he used to have a k/9 rate over 10.0 and a hr/9 rate around 0.5, this season his k/9 was 8.6 (it dropped to 8.1 in the second half and 7.5 in September) and a hr/9 rate closer to 1.00. That isn't the recipe for a #1 starter when combined with the limited innings.

[Judge Jude]

he has to skip the opt-out and play the "I want to be a Dodger for life, just like my doppelganger Sandy Koufax who is standing next to me" card.

part of him probably does, anyway. but he may not like what the real market perceives his value to be.

and I have owned a majority of his career and cashed a lot of checks thanks to him.

but every player has a value. would be said if he overthinks this and he winds up somewhere else for less money and less attention. he seems smarter than that (though the Dodgers could rework the deal, I think, so all can save face).

[Gregg]

he has to skip the opt-out and play the "I want to be a Dodger for life, just like my doppelganger Sandy Koufax who is standing next to me" card.

part of him probably does, anyway. but he may not like what the real market perceives his value to be.

and I have owned a majority of his career and cashed a lot of checks thanks to him.

but every player has a value. would be said if he overthinks this and he winds up somewhere else for less money and less attention. he seems smarter than that (though the Dodgers could rework the deal, I think, so all can save face).

It was reported that he is in negotiations for a short extension with the Dodgers. As you mentioned seems like the right thing for both parties.