way-too-early keepers

[mjl]

my sleep is all screwed up and I'm thinking about it anyway, so...

10-team AL 5x5 using AVG, two catchers. I can keep three minor leaguers and then 11 more major or minor leaguers. Minor leaguers contracts don't start until they lose rookie status. Top-end players go in the low to mid-50s; I expect Trout will go for 60 when his LTC expires after next year.

Contracts are as of next year.

Minors:
Vlad 10R
Adell 7R
Wander Franco 8R
Brujan 5R
Tellez 7R

Majors:
Welington Castillo 5B
Salvador Perez 21/option
Miguel Cabrera 7B
Jed Lowrie 10B
Matt Chapman 9B
Jorge Polanco 9/option
Jean Segura 33/option
Justin Smoak 10/option
Joey Gallo 12/option
JD Martinez 46B
Nomar Mazara 10X

Trevor Bauer 3/option
Shane Bieber 5B
Blake Snell 6/option
Blake Treinen 5/option

Which of those should I not even think about trying to bundle in some kind of three-for-one? What should I do about extensions?

The only other team with a really strong keeper list has Jose Ramirez 23, Candelario 10, Correa 22, Tim Anderson 10, Bregman 18, Trout 30, Ohtani 12, Eddie Rosario 8, Kepler 5, but he gets 14+3 keepers and it's pretty thin after that so maybe I can make a deal with him.

[Gregg]

A couple of initial thoughts:

Do not trade Vlad or Adell in any deal no matter what.

You have a lot of option players that I would play out. I would extend Bauer and Snell a year each.

I might trade with the team you mention, but I would rather find the guys with weak keeper lists, target their best player and do a two or three for one.

[Pauly]

I wouldnt touch Vlad, Bauer, Snell, Treinen. Those are building block guys and I would likely extend all 3 at least 1 yr.
JD at 46 seems like an easy keep as well.

The rest you should try and see what you might get.

[chancellor]

That's a very nice - but also very challenging - list.

Miggy's at a nice price, though I'd be inclined to throw him back in due to the extreme injury/lost time risk, and the hope that someone would overpay hoping he'll play 120 games and hit like 2016. Sal Perez in your league is probably at value, and there's nothing in his hitting profile that indicates a major decline, but he's an older catcher who has caught a lot of games, and I'd be very nervous about keeping him even at 21. Joey Gallo is so, so very intriguing to at least lock in for an additional year, but there's nothing in his hitting profile that points to a big jump in value. Blake Treinen was essentially unhittable this year, but extending closers makes my intestines squirm. Smoak's base numbers would say extend a year, but some important advanced metrics for an age 31 guy showed alarming decline.

All that said, I'll differ with Gregg in some minor ways. First, I'd extend Polanco a year. There's nothing sexy there, but 14 for 12-15 HRs, 12-15 SBs, a .270ish BA and a combined 140ish runs/RBI is a fine value for two years, and he's young with growth potential. Of course, he comes with risk, since if he gets busted for PEDs again, he's out for a looooooong time. Agree on extending Snell and Bauer a year. Not only would I not give up Vlad or Adell, I'd not give up Tellez if you can stash him for another year. I don't think he helps you much in 2018, but by 2019, he could be Toronto's starting 1B/DH.

Per the trade question, Jed Lowrie would be #1 on my list to deal. I'm just not confident he can duplicate those counting numbers. If someone will give you the sun and the moon for Treinen, and you have access to saves in the auction or via another deal, I'd be willing to move him.