I have the FAAB hammer - which of 19 (!) new NL guys do I grab?

[Judge Jude]

New Dodgers RP John Axford, new Dodgers 2B Brian Dozier, new Pirates RP Keone Kela, new Phillies C Wilson Ramos, new Phillies RP Aaron Loup, new Braves SP Kevin Gausman, new Braves RP Darren O'Day, new Pirates SP Chris Archer, new Brewers 2B Jonathan Schoop, new Diamondbacks RP Jake Diekman, new Braves RP Brad Brach, new Cardinals RP Chasen Shreve, new Brewers 31 Mike Moustakas, new Diamondbacks 3S2 Eduardo Escobar, new Cubs SP Cole Hamels, new Braves RP Jonny Venters, new Diamondbacks P Matt Andriese, new Rockies RP Seungwhan Oh, and new Brewers RP Joakim Soria are my options.

I "win" because I got 10 extra FAAB units for losing Pham 10-S1 to AL (one owner actually lost Cameron Maybin 11-S2, but he zeroed out last week to get Machado).

I'm in 3rd place in a race of 97.5 (with SPs Strasburg/CMartinez/Buehler) to 85.5 to 80 to 77.

simplifying, I think HQ has these as the top-projected guys (not listing RPs because I don't need a closer, and I don't see one there anyway):

3B Moustakas 20, Dozier 19, 2B Schoop 17, 32S Escobar 15, WRamos 8
SP Archer 12, Hamels 7, Gausman 3

my worst projected hitters are MReynolds -1, Duvall 4, EHernandez 4, Hanson 6
my worst projected pitchers are CRichard -2, Straily 0, Roark 3

I have a 24-HR lead over 2nd place and 31 over 3rd - so why the hell do I have Duvall AND EHernandez on the roster? at least the latter is 1-S2 and qualifies everywhere but C. Duvall is a lame duck, and I haven't been able to give him away.

my worst hitting categories are SB (9th) and AVG (10th). Dozier projects to 4 SB, and the other 4 combined to total 2. sigh. and Dozier only projects to .251 (hey, that's my team's AVG), while the other 4 are .264 to .275.

my SPs are Kershaw, AWood, CAnderson, and the 3 bums above.
my worst pitching categories are W (8th-T) and K (11th), of course.

so all that, and damned if I know who to pick.

[virgonomic]

The approach might be to look at who they would be replacing.

Archer or Hamels could be a significant upgrade over Roark.
Moose is a significant upgrade over Reynolds.

Either get a P, or get Moose and trade someone.

[Pauly]

I say archer as it sounds like you need pitching...unless you are better served by blocking somone from getting moose or dozier.

[chancellor]

Agree with Pauly - Given your needs, Archer, then WRamos, then Gausman

[Judge Jude]

good points.

we have totally blind bidding.
usually, the 2nd team (who is in 11th place and would sell whatever he gets) can figure out what the first guy will do.
if power was my biggest weakness, then they'd probably guess Moustakas. but HR are useless to me.

third in FAAB units is the league leader, who is 7th in SV (no help there) and 6th in ERA and Ratio (likely ditto).

so the teams in 4th on down in the FAAB pecking order are flying as blind as in league history. there will be some wild-ass guesses. I will have 1 FAAB unit to spare after ensuring I get my guy, and may toss a dart at somebody a little below the radar (Gausman?)

[chancellor]

Yup, Gausman. You need pitching, and he’s the most likely to provide lightning in a bottle - he has some legit talent, he’s out of Camden Yards, and more importantly, he has escaped the Orioles.

[Judge Jude]

oddly, my terrible trio of CRichard, Straily, and Roark are all scheduled to start tonight:

CRichard 2 ER, 5 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 K. meh
Roark 4 scoreless so far after 8 scoreless in previous game. he leads, 13-0
Straily rained out?

Straily is only a buck and had about 350 total K in last 2 seasons.
Richard is 10 so no.
Roark a lame duck but.....

[harmon]

Archer on a resurgent Pirates team and nice home park.

[Judge Jude]

funny, you can tell my league is one of writers and not engineers or accountants (my twin brother is an auditor who doesn't play fantasy baseball or football), because these are illogical results that the group embraces:

so I indeed take Archer.

3rd-place team in FAAB (owner leading overall standings and seeking his first title in 20 tries) preemptively gave up his June 2019 farm pick - and if he struggles next season, that could mean pick is from top 5 of NL players in June farm selections, or a hot unclaimed prospect - for a measly 2 FAAB units next week.

what that did, though, was move him up to 2nd this week - he doesn't get the 2 units yet, but he knows the other guy trails him now this week. creative!

he calculated that I had to take Archer, and maybe so. he goes all-in for Escobar, who replaces recent FA pickup Plouffe (poof and oof).

the team he traded with took a shot at Dozier almost all-in, and got him as consolation for losing Joe Morgan-lite Logan Forsythe.

then it gets weird. 6 owners of 10 with any FAAB bid on Escobar.

but Moustakas? a lone 3-unit bid lands him for 3-S1 next year if he's in NL. goodbye, Austin Barnes.

Schoop? a lone 3-unit bid by the new Dozier owner lands another as he does what the Mets refuse to do - waive Jose Reyes!

my 1-unit Gausman bid leaves me 3rd. same owner who got Gausman for 15 lands Kela for 5 - adios, Montgomery and Winkler (both 10-S2).

wait, where's Cole Hamels? not bid on. he'll go for 10-S2 to the 11th-place team tomorrow (they have an opening).
looks like the 2nd-place team will swap out star-crossed Cueto for Oh (also an opening).

[joncarlos]

Crazy stuff. Hamels looked quite good yesterday and I think there's a decent chance that the Cubs re-energize him. I would have gone after Archer too but man I would have been tempted to try to middle and get 2 guys. I wouldn't have guessed Gausman would go over Hamels though.

[Judge Jude]

props to the also-rans who bought lottery tickets and cashed in

I wild-ass guessed Gausman, but if I had played Hamels instead, he'd be my replacement for Straily. no guarantees obviously, bout woulda been nice. I couldn't bid more than 1 after ensuring the Archer buy, so that would have been my lone chance to get lucky.

[mjl]

Another set of NL-only results (we use modified Vickrey - the amount you bid is the player's salary, the amount of FAAB it costs is the second place bid plus one):

Dozier $61/39 (so the first place bid was 61, second was 38)
Moustakas $41/39
Schoop $38/33
Escobar $32/22
Archer $32/27
Hamels $21/19
Ramos $21/13
Gausman $21/19
Kela $5

fwiw, I had bids of 36 on Schoop and 35 on Escobar and 25 on Ramos but I didn't have enough FAAB left after Moustakas to get them.