Who to drop?

[FBP]

NL keeper 10 teams


I have to drop a player to make room for Meadows who I must activate or lose. My choices are Brinson $5 S1, Conforto $18 S1, Williamson $8 S1, Fowler $14 S1, Jankowski $5 S1. I have very little chance to win this year so leaning to holding for the future, including holding those who may have some trade value down the road. Not looking to dump as I may still finish in a low money position. I am thinking Williamson. Any thoughts?

[Pauly]

which fowler

[FBP]

Dexter. This is NL only.

[Pauly]

Dexter....sucks. Drop him. He wont factor into your future at 14 anyway.

[revo]

Yeah, Fowler. I agree with Pauly that he's not a keeper anyway.

[harmon]

Either Fowler or Williamson.

[Ken]

Williamson

[chancellor]

Williamson

I can't argue with this, but I gotta admit, my eyes tell me Fowler. He not only is performing poorly, he looks awful for the most part too.

[Ken]

I can't argue with this, but I gotta admit, my eyes tell me Fowler. He not only is performing poorly, he looks awful for the most part too.

.196 BABIP for Fowler so far.
Yeah, he's not hitting the ball quite as hard as last year, but it's not enough difference to have a .196 BABIP.

But the main thing for me is that neither guy helps you right now. At least with Fowler you have the hope that he's going to revert to form. With Williamson if he performs as expected you have a .230 hitter with no speed and limited power.

[Pauly]

.196 BABIP for Fowler so far.
Yeah, he's not hitting the ball quite as hard as last year, but it's not enough difference to have a .196 BABIP.

But the main thing for me is that neither guy helps you right now. At least with Fowler you have the hope that he's going to revert to form. With Williamson if he performs as expected you have a .230 hitter with no speed and limited power.

I really disagree, especially in an NL only. Williamson could actually be good (he has shown flashes and is definitively better than fowler this year in half the ABs), Williamson is younger, he has a better fantasy contract, and frankly he is in a better position to succeed (no real threat to his PT, whereas Fowler is losing ABs to Bader and Oneill when he is there and anyone else with a pulse).

[Ken]

I really disagree, especially in an NL only.

That's fine. Neither of these guys is going to win anything at this point and neither are keepable. We are talking about minor differences, in which case I'd run a little longer with the guy that *might* help. I don't think either one is an asset but if you are a big Mac fan you would certainly disagree.

Williamson could actually be good

What is this based on? He certainly has not been good as an mlb player. He has hit .219, .223, .235, and .250 in his 4 partial seasons. He has 2 career SB. His career OBP is .298.
His contact stats are terrible. 28% soft hits for his career and 29% this year. Just 27% hard hit this year.
His HRs are inflated by a 28% HR/FB rate.

(he has shown flashes and is definitively better than fowler this year in half the ABs),

Probably not worth comparing, you don't want to have had either of them in your lineup. Williamson is still trying to reach double digits in RBI.

Williamson is younger, he has a better fantasy contract

He's younger, but at 27 it is a little late for any kind of break out. And at $8 he's likely not keepable unless his production dramatically increases.

and frankly he is in a better position to succeed (no real threat to his PT, whereas Fowler is losing ABs to Bader and Oneill when he is there and anyone else with a pulse).

He's in a better position right now to get ABs, but unless he changes that's not going to help.

Either answer is fine, if you love Williamson, go for it, I just don't see it in the profile. The counting stats aren't there, and the advanced stats don't suggest much of a change.

[The Dane]

I really disagree, especially in an NL only. Williamson could actually be good (he has shown flashes and is definitively better than fowler this year in half the ABs), Williamson is younger, he has a better fantasy contract, and frankly he is in a better position to succeed (no real threat to his PT, whereas Fowler is losing ABs to Bader and Oneill when he is there and anyone else with a pulse).

This.

Fowler has too many players breathing down his neck for him to be able to stink like this all season. There's Bader who looks like he should be playing every day. And O'Neill who should be getting some more ABs to see if his massive power in the minors can translate. And Mercado has been good on the farm. Fowler has a teeny-tiny leash at this point, even though he's the kind of guy the Cardinals usually extend leash for. That super-low BABIP tells you that he still could likely have something left to give, but you're talking trade here and no one will give you dick for him right now. He's almost completely worthless, trade value BABIPed into dust. In a rebuilder, I'd cut him for Meadows without a second thought.

Williamson is nothing special, but he has some power upside and his team is banged-up all to hell. SF has no OF of note on their way up, and his everyday ABs are being blocked by The Gorkys Fucking Hernandez Late Career Miracle.

[mjl]

Related, from Fangraphs today, if you'd missed this development:

Harrison Bader (vs LHP) and Dexter Fowler (vs RHP) are in a right field semi-platoon. I think it has been created to keep Fowler and his inflated contract in the lineup. While a single season’s worth of splits data should not be used for decisions, it looks like the Cards are using them. Fowler has a .613 OPS vs RHP and .308 vs LHP. Bader has a .950 OPS against LHP and .665 against RHP. While Bader is better against right and left-handed pitchers, at least the Cards can “justify” playing Fowler.