Dynasty: Hated to trade Kyle Tucker, but I did

[Roy Hobbs]

12 Team mixed Dynasty / no salaries / no contracts / 34 man rosters / start 13 hitters / 9 pitchers / 5 x 5 H2H Weekly by categories

I gave Kyle Tucker

I received Luiz Gohara and Austin Riley.


My team needed some pitching upside for the future and I believe Riley has upside too, but man, it hurt trading Tucker.

HITTERS
--------------------
Gary Sanchez C | NYY
Anthony Rizzo 1B | CHC
Jean Segura 2B,SS | SEA
Rafael Devers 3B | BOS
Trea Turner SS | WAS
Whit Merrifield 2B | KC
Joey Votto 1B | CIN
Ronald Acuna OF | ATL
Rhys Hoskins 1B,OF | PHI
Mike Trout OF | LAA
Justin Upton OF | LAA
Cody Bellinger 1B,OF | LAD
Juan Soto OF | WAS
Mac Williamson OF | SF
Peter Alonso 1B | NYM
Blaze Jordan 1B |
Willie Calhoun 2B,OF | TEX
Jo Adell OF | LAA
Vladimir Guerrero OF,3B | TOR
Victor Robles OF | WAS
Austin Riley 3B | ATL
Rougned Odor 2B | TEX

PITCHERS
------------------------
Gerrit Cole SP | HOU
Yu Darvish SP | CHC
Dennis Santana SP | LAD
David Price SP | BOS
Jameson Taillon SP | PIT
Brad Hand RP | SD
Brandon Morrow RP | CHC
Nate Jones RP | CHW
Seranthony Domingez RP | PHI
Ross Stripling SP | LAD
Chris Paddack SP | SD
Luiz Gohara SP | ATL

[joncarlos]

Man, I dunno. Does Gohara ever really crack the top 108 pitchers, which is all you start? I guess so. But not by a lot. And it's not like you were hurting at 3B.

[Roy Hobbs]

Man, I dunno. Does Gohara ever really crack the top 108 pitchers, which is all you start? I guess so. But not by a lot. And it's not like you were hurting at 3B.

It's a gamble for sure. The idea of it is a high upside / younger starting pitching down the road and still get a high upside bat. I'm not expecting anything earth shattering from Gohara this year. I could definitely see this trade as being a wash, or close to it, when the dust clears. There is also some risk with Tucker as well.

[Ken]

I think it's reasonable to say that Riley and Tucker are pretty close as far as dynasty prospects.
So sure, why not?

[Sour Masher]

I think it's reasonable to say that Riley and Tucker are pretty close as far as dynasty prospects.
So sure, why not?

Riley is a nice player, but Tucker is a good bit better. I think he has a good shot of being a consistent top 30 OFer for many years.

[Roy Hobbs]

Riley is a nice player, but Tucker is a good bit better. I think he has a good shot of being a consistent top 30 OFer for many years.

I got Gohara in addition to Riley

[Sour Masher]

I got Gohara in addition to Riley

Yeah, gohara has a chance to be the better get of the two braves. He does have enticing upside, if everything comes together for him.

[Roy Hobbs]

Riley is a nice player, but Tucker is a good bit better. I think he has a good shot of being a consistent top 30 OFer for many years.

Tucker’s ceiling is a 20/20 player and probably an average of .270

[Sour Masher]

Tucker’s ceiling is a 20/20 player and probably an average of .270

Hitting high in a great offense, with a shot at 200 RBIs+runs, as well. I'll take it.

[Roy Hobbs]

Hitting high in a great offense, with a shot at 200 RBIs+runs, as well. I'll take it.

No doubt I really liked Tucker and hated losing him, but he's not without holes in his game. He could hit for a poor average at the next level and may not steal the bases we hope for. He does get caught quite a bit. Riley could end up a wash with Tucker, or very close, and will also be hitting in a very good lineup. It's Gohara that's the wildcard in the trade. He's what I'm counting on to help my team the most in the future, because my hitting is very good as it is and I could afford the risk. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

[Ken]

Riley is a nice player, but Tucker is a good bit better. I think he has a good shot of being a consistent top 30 OFer for many years.

Can you give some details on why he's a "good bit better"?
Riley is younger. Similar hit/power tools. Tucker has run more in the minors but doesn't seems to profile as a speed guy at the mlb level.
For reference, RHD has just 8 players between them in his roto rankings.

I think it was reasonable to say they are close. Especially when we are dealing with prospects, whose potential outcomes vary significantly. The overlap between them in potential fantasy value likely covers more of a range than either one's individual unique ceiling. We often forget the failure rate of even "top" prospects.

[Sour Masher]

Can you give some details on why he's a "good bit better"?
Riley is younger. Similar hit/power tools. Tucker has run more in the minors but doesn't seems to profile as a speed guy at the mlb level.
For reference, RHD has just 8 players between them in his roto rankings.

I think it was reasonable to say they are close. Especially when we are dealing with prospects, whose potential outcomes vary significantly. The overlap between them in potential fantasy value likely covers more of a range than either one's individual unique ceiling. We often forget the failure rate of even "top" prospects.

I should preface by saying that I don't think Tucker is a LOT better than Riley, but I do think he is clearly better. First, you mention age. Riley is less than 3 months younger--I don't think that is a note worthy difference in age. They do have comparable power, but Tucker has a slightly better hit tool, and a good bit more speed. While I agree that his speed won't translate to a whole lot of SBs, he should be in the 10-20sb range for much of his career whereas Riley is a 40 runner, and that may be generous. He won't be getting more than a couple of fluke sbs a year. Speed aside, the biggest differentiation for me is how their walk to K ratios are going in different directions as they have advanced to this high minors. This year, Tucker walks more and Ks less, showing a better eye or more patience. His K rate is under 20% and his walk rate is over 10%. Riley's K rate is 30% and his walk rate is 8%. SSS, but this seems to bear out from video I've seen of them. Riley is a more aggressive hitter. It has worked well for him in the minors, but there is more risk in his approach in the majors. He may be good enough to keep hitting well in the majors, or his hit rate may go down if he doesn't have the skills at the highest level to match his approach. You mentioned failure rate of prospects, which is a great point. For me, much of the difference between these two prospects is in my perception of Riley's higher risk of failure vs Tucker based on their approaches at the plate. Of course, he could adjust that, and he does have a comparable hit tool and power. So while their outcomes could end up similar, Tucker's better eye/approach and speed clearly separate them for me right now.

In all, I prefer Tucker by a good bit, but certainly Riley is a very good prospect, and getting Gohara in the deal evens it out. Gohara's chances of reaching his ceiling are not very good, but he has really good stuff. I could see him as a 2/3 if he can fight his way through the sea of potentially good starters the Braves have coming up.

[Roy Hobbs]

I should preface by saying that I don't think Tucker is a LOT better than Riley, but I do think he is clearly better. First, you mention age. Riley is less than 3 months younger--I don't think that is a note worthy difference in age. They do have comparable power, but Tucker has a slightly better hit tool, and a good bit more speed. While I agree that his speed won't translate to a whole lot of SBs, he should be in the 10-20sb range for much of his career whereas Riley is a 40 runner, and that may be generous. He won't be getting more than a couple of fluke sbs a year. Speed aside, the biggest differentiation for me is how their walk to K ratios are going in different directions as they have advanced to this high minors. This year, Tucker walks more and Ks less, showing a better eye or more patience. His K rate is under 20% and his walk rate is over 10%. Riley's K rate is 30% and his walk rate is 8%. SSS, but this seems to bear out from video I've seen of them. Riley is a more aggressive hitter. It has worked well for him in the minors, but there is more risk in his approach in the majors. He may be good enough to keep hitting well in the majors, or his hit rate may go down if he doesn't have the skills at the highest level to match his approach. You mentioned failure rate of prospects, which is a great point. For me, much of the difference between these two prospects is in my perception of Riley's higher risk of failure vs Tucker based on their approaches at the plate. Of course, he could adjust that, and he does have a comparable hit tool and power. So while their outcomes could end up similar, Tucker's better eye/approach and speed clearly separate them for me right now.

In all, I prefer Tucker by a good bit, but certainly Riley is a very good prospect, and getting Gohara in the deal evens it out. Gohara's chances of reaching his ceiling are not very good, but he has really good stuff. I could see him as a 2/3 if he can fight his way through the sea of potentially good starters the Braves have coming up.

I believe Riley will hit for more power than Tucker and in over 1300+ innings of minor league ball has a better average. I would have expected .300+ average for a prospect of Tucker's hype. Unless Tucker's speed translates to stolen bases at the MLB level, there is a very good chance Riley projects just as good or better than Tucker.

[Sour Masher]

I believe Riley will hit for more power than Tucker and in over 1300+ innings of minor league ball has a better average. I would have expected .300+ average for a prospect of Tucker's hype. Unless Tucker's speed translates to stolen bases at the MLB level, there is a very good chance Riley projects just as good or better than Tucker.

We shall see . Either way, you did well in getting both Riley and gohara.

[chancellor]

I should preface by saying that I don't think Tucker is a LOT better than Riley, but I do think he is clearly better. First, you mention age. Riley is less than 3 months younger--I don't think that is a note worthy difference in age. They do have comparable power, but Tucker has a slightly better hit tool, and a good bit more speed. While I agree that his speed won't translate to a whole lot of SBs, he should be in the 10-20sb range for much of his career whereas Riley is a 40 runner, and that may be generous. He won't be getting more than a couple of fluke sbs a year. Speed aside, the biggest differentiation for me is how their walk to K ratios are going in different directions as they have advanced to this high minors. This year, Tucker walks more and Ks less, showing a better eye or more patience. His K rate is under 20% and his walk rate is over 10%. Riley's K rate is 30% and his walk rate is 8%. SSS, but this seems to bear out from video I've seen of them. Riley is a more aggressive hitter. It has worked well for him in the minors, but there is more risk in his approach in the majors. He may be good enough to keep hitting well in the majors, or his hit rate may go down if he doesn't have the skills at the highest level to match his approach. You mentioned failure rate of prospects, which is a great point. For me, much of the difference between these two prospects is in my perception of Riley's higher risk of failure vs Tucker based on their approaches at the plate. Of course, he could adjust that, and he does have a comparable hit tool and power. So while their outcomes could end up similar, Tucker's better eye/approach and speed clearly separate them for me right now.

In all, I prefer Tucker by a good bit, but certainly Riley is a very good prospect, and getting Gohara in the deal evens it out. Gohara's chances of reaching his ceiling are not very good, but he has really good stuff. I could see him as a 2/3 if he can fight his way through the sea of potentially good starters the Braves have coming up.

Nice review and analysis. I like the deal a little more than you, but that's due to Gohara, who I really like as a high-upside type that I'd love to have in my minors in a dynasty or NL-only league. You did a very good job on the Riley/Tucker comparison.