Buying low or just broken?

[Sharky]

Buying low is much harder than it sounds. Sometimes players are just not going to rebound.

Paul Goldschmidt. Random statistical fluctuation? Hidden injury?

Even if you could buy low, is it worth trying?

Any input on Goldschmidt specifically would be welcome.

[pitbull]

I would say if you can buy low do it but honestly I would expect most owners thinking this has to change so they will likely ride it out. The biggest fluctuation is his K is at 32% contact 63%. Assuming he reverts to his norm of K 22% and contact 73% should see a significant increase. He has been remarkably consistent in those areas. He also has been terrible in his own ballpark where he is hitting .140. If the owner in my league wants to sell low on him please call me.

[chancellor]

It’s more than random fluctuations at this point. deGrom is a very good pitcher, and he was on last night, but he went through Goldy like he went through the pitchers spot. Beyond a doubt, he’s totally lost right now. But he doesn’t appear hurt.

I’d buy low, but it’d have to be on a major haircut over his expected value.

[revo]

One thing's for sure, it's not the humidor! If you can buy low, sure, but I agree with pitbull that most owners won't sell that low.

[swampdragon]

this trade just happened in my league
team A needs pitching - they got Goldy and Kluber
team B needs hitting - they got Trout and Teheran

a nervy move by both teams - I am behind them both so I hope it doesnt work well for either team

[onejayhawk]

One thing's for sure, it's not the humidor! If you can buy low, sure, but I agree with pitbull that most owners won't sell that low.

You might get a 4th round price, but he has not done close to 4th round production thus far. Still, it's not completely out of the blue. His first full season, 2012, he slashed .193/.288/.281 through April.

The thing that gets me is the strikeouts. I think it's a vision problem.

J

[Hammer]

Here is a stat to consider on Goldy. This year he has swung at 80 pitches at 96 mph or greater. He has made contact with zero of them.

[Hornsby]

Here is a stat to consider on Goldy. This year he has swung at 80 pitches at 96 mph or greater. He has made contact with zero of them.

Holy crap, that's beyond awful...that's actually hard to believe. One of the best hitters of the last decade and he can't catch up to an elite fastball anymore? Got to be something wrong there...

[pitbull]

Here is a stat to consider on Goldy. This year he has swung at 80 pitches at 96 mph or greater. He has made contact with zero of them.

Interesting. How does that compare to previous seasons?

[Mithrandir]

Has any player of this caliber been this bad for so long? I wouldn't be buying at this point.

[mjl]

Just spot-checking...

Goldschmidt is at 158 AB of .203/.326/.354 with 4 HR.

Trout: no
Harper: 2nd half of 2016, .226/.336/.373 with 5 HR in 217 AB
Cabrera: no
Pujols: not until he was old
McCutchen: no
Votto: start of 2016, .205/.337/.353 with 6 HR in 156 AB ("After an abysmal start to the 2016 season, hitting a season-low .213 on May 31, Votto became the first player in MLB since Ichiro Suzuki in 2004 to hit .400 after the All-Star Break. Votto hit .408/.490/.668 in the second half.")
Braun: mid 2010, .246/.286/.386 with 6 HR in 171 AB

[revo]

Here is a stat to consider on Goldy. This year he has swung at 80 pitches at 96 mph or greater. He has made contact with zero of them.

I know you told me this yesterday, but I wanted to see the actual stats on this and couldn't find anything. What I did find, from MLB.com, was this:

"Per Statcast™, he's just 1-for-17 (.059) on balls put in play against pitches 95-mph or greater after going 27-for-96 (.281) against such pitches last year."

I tried using Statcast to find this stat, and the closest I came was that he made "at least feeble" contact on 2 of 58 pitches that were > or = to 96 mph. Still horrendous, but I would love to find a way to compare these stats to other seasons.

[Hammer]

I know you told me this yesterday, but I wanted to see the actual stats on this and couldn't find anything. What I did find, from MLB.com, was this:

"Per Statcast™, he's just 1-for-17 (.059) on balls put in play against pitches 95-mph or greater after going 27-for-96 (.281) against such pitches last year."

I tried using Statcast to find this stat, and the closest I came was that he made "at least feeble" contact on 2 of 58 pitches that were > or = to 96 mph. Still horrendous, but I would love to find a way to compare these stats to other seasons.

I heard it on the Mets radio broadcast. No link.

[onejayhawk]

Here is a stat to consider on Goldy. This year he has swung at 80 pitches at 96 mph or greater. He has made contact with zero of them.

Back to a vision problem. Something he used to pick up, he's not seeing anymore, or taking a fraction longer to recognize.

J

[cavebird]

Unless desperate, I would just hold in this situation. Wouldn't look to buy or sell. Too much risk in both directions.