Originally posted by Teenwolf
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Adalberto Mondesi watch
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FantasyPros has an early top 250 up. https://www.fantasypros.com/2018/10/...kings-top-250/
Mondesi is #68. I suspect that will be the lowball of the expert rankings this winter.
JAd Astra per Aspera
Oh. In that case, never mind. - Wonderboy
GITH fails logic 101. - bryanbutler
Bah...OJH caught me. - Pogues
I don't know if you guys are being willfully ignorant, but... - Judge Jude
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Originally posted by SlideRule View PostHR and SB tonight (again!!)
Mondesi has 19 career HR and 47 SB in 151 career games (man that's fun to type, what a season if he keeps it up all season!)
That's 1 steal every 3.2 games played. If you look at just the games he didn't homer, he's stealing at a rate of 1 steal every 3.5 games.
The crazy part is that in the 19 games in which he has homered, he has 9 steals. Or 1 steal every 2.1 games. It's not only a 50% higher rate than the games in which he didn't homer, it's also counter intuitive. Because the fact that he hit a HR means he has 1 less AB in which he can steal a base.
Since 9/14/2018 Mondesi has played in 20 games. During that time he has both homered and stolen a base in 6 games. So 30% of the time he's both hitting a homer and stealing a base in the same game over his last 20 games (including 1 game on 9/27/18 where he had a homer and 2 steals). During that time, he has hit 8 homers and stolen 11 bases. But only 2 of those HR have come on days when he didn't steal a base, and 4 of the SB have come on days when he didn't HR. So 75% of his HR have come on days he steals a base, and 64% of his steals have come on days he HRs.
Looking at the 20 game sample set, and running a regression on it, the p-value is just .0183 for the null hypothesis that his HR and steals are not correlated, suggesting strong evidence of correlation.
What is causing Mondesi to have these games where he both hits a HR and steals a base?Last edited by Ken; 04-02-2019, 11:09 PM.
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Originally posted by Ken View PostAgain tonight!
Mondesi has 19 career HR and 47 SB in 151 career games (man that's fun to type, what a season if he keeps it up all season!)
That's 1 steal every 3.2 games played. If you look at just the games he didn't homer, he's stealing at a rate of 1 steal every 3.5 games.
The crazy part is that in the 19 games in which he has homered, he has 9 steals. Or 1 steal every 2.1 games. It's not only a 50% higher rate than the games in which he didn't homer, it's also counter intuitive. Because the fact that he hit a HR means he has 1 less AB in which he can steal a base.
Since 9/14/2018 Mondesi has played in 20 games. During that time he has both homered and stolen a base in 6 games. So 30% of the time he's both hitting a homer and stealing a base in the same game over his last 20 games (including 1 game on 9/27/18 where he had a homer and 2 steals). During that time, he has hit 8 homers and stolen 11 bases. But only 2 of those HR have come on days when he didn't steal a base, and 4 of the SB have come on days when he didn't HR. So 75% of his HR have come on days he steals a base, and 64% of his steals have come on days he HRs.
Looking at the 20 game sample set, and running a regression on it, the p-value is just .0183 for the null hypothesis that his HR and steals are not correlated, suggesting strong evidence of correlation.
What is causing Mondesi to have these games where he both hits a HR and steals a base?
He was kept at a buck in my AL only. The owner would not trade him for a free then 5 dollar when activated Vlad Jr. Can't say as I blame him.
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Originally posted by SlideRule View PostWell technically it was an inside the park HR tonight (that Buxton couldn’t chase down, and that he slow jogged to first on) so it’s kinda like stealing four bases! Or something.
Mondesi always oozed potential. It took several years to get it in gear, but this has always been there. If he ever shows zone awareness he could be scary.
JAd Astra per Aspera
Oh. In that case, never mind. - Wonderboy
GITH fails logic 101. - bryanbutler
Bah...OJH caught me. - Pogues
I don't know if you guys are being willfully ignorant, but... - Judge Jude
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Originally posted by Ken View PostMondesi decided to mess with the pattern - two steals yesterday and a HR today instead of doing it all in the same game like normal.
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I would only be annoyed with Mondesi's approach if I owned him in an OBP league. I'm happy with my decision to extend to $20 through 2022 so far.
Oh, and he picked up his 2nd walk of the game, by the way. I wonder how his approach will change over time, and if he still has more ceiling attainable.Larry David was once being heckled, long before any success. Heckler says "I'm taking my dog over to fuck your mother, weekly." Larry responds "I hate to tell you this, but your dog isn't liking it."
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Originally posted by Teenwolf View PostI would only be annoyed with Mondesi's approach if I owned him in an OBP league. I'm happy with my decision to extend to $20 through 2022 so far.
Oh, and he picked up his 2nd walk of the game, by the way. I wonder how his approach will change over time, and if he still has more ceiling attainable."Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
- Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)
"Your shitty future continues to offend me."
-Warren Ellis
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Back on that 20 HR / 50 SB pace, up to .295 BA and slightly improved walk rate. Love what I'm seeing.Larry David was once being heckled, long before any success. Heckler says "I'm taking my dog over to fuck your mother, weekly." Larry responds "I hate to tell you this, but your dog isn't liking it."
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