Adalberto Mondesi watch

[Ken]

I own him in my 12 team Al league have to long term him next year. Should I go 2 years for 15 or 3 for 20?

To make sure I have the scenario right, you have him at $10 currently and have a choice to keep him for $10 for 2019, extend him to $15 for 2019 and $15 for 2020, or you can extend him to $20 for 2019, $20 for 2020, and $20 for 2021?
I'd go with $15 and take the profit like suggested above, but it's close. For me it's just a matter of needing another year of playing time to prove that the 2018 version of Mondesi is what we will see going forward.

[Teenwolf]

To make sure I have the scenario right, you have him at $10 currently and have a choice to keep him for $10 for 2019, extend him to $15 for 2019 and $15 for 2020, or you can extend him to $20 for 2019, $20 for 2020, and $20 for 2021?
I'd go with $15 and take the profit like suggested above, but it's close. For me it's just a matter of needing another year of playing time to prove that the 2018 version of Mondesi is what we will see going forward.

I'm in a similar contract scenario in my 12 tm AL only, $5 & needs extension, and I think I'm starting to lean towards $20 for 4 years. The top players are starting to hit $60+ now, and I believe he offers the type of package that could fetch $60 in that 4th year, if everything breaks right. SB are so scarce, he really seems like as long as he's getting AB, then he should be able to accumulate a 12/40 floor, but with lots of room to explode beyond that floor. He's nearly accrued those stats in less than 80 games so far this year.

To compare, I also own Mallex Smith $16 needing extension... $21 for 2 years is a pretty huge extension for a non-stud, but even offering a much lower ceiling g than Mondesi, I still might make that extension with less than 10 guys capable of 30+ SB in the AL, and both Mallex and Adalberto set to hit in the top 3rd of their orders for the next few years, it might be worth it for the duo SB security.

For hacko, I'd extend to $15 if you have low inflation (top players in the $45-$50 range) or I'd go $20 if inflation is a bit higher. Personally, I prefer to roll the dice on the extra year, but I'm also going to likely cut a $15 Stroman for an $8 penalty, so my aggressiveness with extensions doesn't carry a flawless record. Full disclosure.

[onejayhawk]

What is your guess for 2019 ADP? Are we talking late 20s/early 30s or a round higher or lower?

J

[SlideRule]

Another dinger (13) and 2 SBs (30) tonight.

[rhd]

And a 2.9% BB rate. Just sayin'.

[hacko]

To make sure I have the scenario right, you have him at $10 currently and have a choice to keep him for $10 for 2019, extend him to $15 for 2019 and $15 for 2020, or you can extend him to $20 for 2019, $20 for 2020, and $20 for 2021?
I'd go with $15 and take the profit like suggested above, but it's close. For me it's just a matter of needing another year of playing time to prove that the 2018 version of Mondesi is what we will see going forward.

I have him at 5 opt. Which means I have 3 choices.
Cut him - not going to happen
Top him - we have 1 team called The Raul’s Mondisi - after his Dad. So my guess he would go for at least 40 which means I could top for 1 dollar more and keep for 2 years.
Or long term -
10 L1 - next year only
15 L2
20L3 would be 3 years...

The longest contract I ever gave was 4 years to Don Mattingly - yes I am old and have been playing this a long time.

I also own Gary Sanchez for the same contract - 5 opt

[Teenwolf]

And a 2.9% BB rate. Just sayin'.

Have you read the latest fangraphs article? It dives into his improving chase rates and improving contact rate. His contact rate has been hovering in the low 70's throughout most of this season, which is slightly below average, but not terribly so. Many hitters have survived a contact rate that low, and it's usually quality of contact that overcomes a lower contact rate... seems he squaring balls up enough to keep a decent batting average, especially when added to his high BABIP on grounders due to the speed...

If it's an OBP league, he takes a decent little hit, but I think he thrives in BA leagues.

[SlideRule]

HR and SB tonight (again!!)

[mjl]

Mondesi is at 14 HR/31 SB after 74 games. I'm not saying it's meaningful, but the last player to have 14 HR and 31 SB in a season with 81 games or fewer played is:

Spoiler!

nobody.

obviously these are cherry-picked numbers in that Trea Turner had 13/33 in 73 games a couple years ago, so here's the top 10 if you drop the requirements to 13/30:

Spoiler!

• Turner 2016: 73 G, 13/33
• Rickey 1993: 90 G, 17/31
• Rickey 1987: 95 G, 17/41
• Eric Davis 1993: 108 G, 14/33
• Barry Bonds 1986: 113 G, 16/36
• Rickey 1992: 117 G, 15/48
• Adolfo Phillips 1966: 118 G, 16/32
• Paul Molitor 1987: 118 G, 16/45
• Kirk Gibson 1986: 119 G, 28/34
• Bill Dahlen 1894: 121 G, 15/42

which is a pretty solid list. Though it does raise the question of who the hell is Adolfo Phillips.

Phillips was a centerfielder who broke in in 1964 with Philly but didn't get much playing time and didn't do anything with it for two years. After two games with the Phillies in 66 he went to the Cubs (along with John Herrnstein and Fergie Jenkins for Bob Buhl and Larry Jackson) and played three full seasons there, his age 24 to 26 seasons. In those three seasons he put up OPS+ of 120, 136, and 109, hitting 16, 17, and 13 HR and stealing 32, 24, and 9 bases with an OBP over .350. In 1967 in the first half of the season he hit .306/.412/.565 with 13 HR but injuries slowed him down in the second half. In 1969 he was traded to the Expos and played two more half-seasons where he was mediocre (OPS+ of 81 and 97), then he was out of baseball except for 9 PA with the Indians in 1972.

According to his SABR bio (https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/d3ba49ce) "Adolfo Phillips, a 22-year-old rookie who was a September call-up with the 1964 Phillies, owned the physical talents of a major-league star. It’s almost as apparent that Phillips was not temperamentally suited for long-term success in the major leagues." Read the article if you're interested, but the quick summary is that he struck out way too much for the era and wasn't perceived as trying his best.

I can't find a convenient way of looking up first-half or second-half stats other than clicking through season-by-season on Fangraphs, but looking at 2000 and later, I can't find anyone who's hit those numbers in the first or second half. Interesting seasons that were close:

Spoiler!

• Turner 2016.2 (as above)
• Villar 2016.2: 72 G, 13/31
• Carlos Gomez 2012.2: 75 G, 14/26
• Trout 2012.1: 64 G, 12/26 (right at Mondesi's pace)
• Trout 2012.2: 75 G, 18/23
• Kemp 2011.1: 92 G, 22/27
• Hanley 2008.1: 93 G, 23/23
• Rollins 2007.2: 74 G, 14/26
• Hanley 2007.1: 86 G, 14/27
• Hanley 2007.2: 68 G, 15/24
• Carl Crawford 2006.1: 82 G, 13/32
• Beltran 2004.2: 74 G, 17/27
• Beltran 2003.1: 75 G, 12/25
• Soriano 2003.1: 91 G, 22/25
• Soriano 2002.1: 83 G, 20/23
• Guerrero 2002.2: 74 G, 20/23
• Raul Mondesi 2000.1: 86 G, 23/21

Other than Villar and Gomez those are all first-round fantasy picks in their era.

btw, if you're interested in finding stats like that but you're too cheap to pay for a bbref subscription, you can download the Lahman database and open it in your spreadsheet of choice and get some of the same functionality. It'll be difficult to do searches over players' full seasons but I'm sure it's possible for someone who knows spreadsheets better than me; I use SQL for that.

[Teenwolf]

HR and SB tonight (again!!)

You forgot that he added the elusive BB!

Gotta love the 162 game pro-rated stats around 30 HR/68 SB... gotta believe the floor is closer to 15 HR, 40-50 SB, but we have seen some tremendous sophomore struggles. I just love knowing that speed doesn't slump, and his defense will keep him starting and stealing through any BA slumps he may encounter...

Especially if you use BA (he takes a small hit in OBP leagues), I'd value him as an elite player. I'm leaning towards extending for $20 through 2022, so I'll have a long while to evaluate the legitimacy of my Mondesi infatuation.

[Hornsby]

You forgot that he added the elusive BB!

Gotta love the 162 game pro-rated stats around 30 HR/68 SB... gotta believe the floor is closer to 15 HR, 40-50 SB, but we have seen some tremendous sophomore struggles. I just love knowing that speed doesn't slump, and his defense will keep him starting and stealing through any BA slumps he may encounter...

Especially if you use BA (he takes a small hit in OBP leagues), I'd value him as an elite player. I'm leaning towards extending for $20 through 2022, so I'll have a long while to evaluate the legitimacy of my Mondesi infatuation.

Yeah, I had the benefit of watching Correa for several seasons before I extended him for 4 years...now, that doesn't look like such a savvy move. I'm going to start to back off on long term extensions...at least next year.

[SlideRule]

Another SB, and a BB today!

[onejayhawk]

Another SB, and a BB today!

I wanted another 3-run bomb.

I'll settle for my two-year contract.

J

[Ken]

Gotta love the 162 game pro-rated stats around 30 HR/68 SB... gotta believe the floor is closer to 15 HR, 40-50 SB, but we have seen some tremendous sophomore struggles.

Obviously I’m a huge fan but 15/40 isn’t anywhere close to his floor. His floor is struggling to make contact and getting sent back to the minors. Not a likely outcome but if you look at guys who strikeout a lot, it certainly can happen.

[onejayhawk]

Obviously I’m a huge fan but 15/40 isn’t anywhere close to his floor. His floor is struggling to make contact and getting sent back to the minors. Not a likely outcome but if you look at guys who strikeout a lot, it certainly can happen.

I have to agree with this. Given his history with the team and his defense, I doubt he goes back to AAA, but deep and extended slumps are possible.

On another front, Fangraphs has an early draft ADP for 2019. Mondesi is currently #70, right behind Didi Gregorius. The highest pick is #39. I cannot believe he stays that low.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Y_4czFhvl97m1FgRGd3Fg0o_13pp2ZQYydYEo0MoD6I/edit#gid=604608158

J