2K18: Nick Pivetta - SP - PHI

[Teenwolf]

First start was a bit rough, but he just dominated the Marlins in his 2nd.

5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K on 97 pitches.

I'm not sure where to find a count of swinging strikes, but he had a ton of them. He was also throwing 4 pitches for strikes, which gave him leeway to get more chases out of the zone... it's was very impressive, even against a weak Miami lineup.

I had him as a $3 flyer in 1 of 2 NL leagues, but he could reach mixed league relevance pretty quickly.

[whalewang]

Way too risky for me. Good SOs but bad ratios. NL streamer imo.

[The Dane]

I'm not crazy about Pivetta in anything but NL-only leagues, and even then, he's priced about right at $3.

[revo]

I'm not sure I'd touch him in an NL East-only league, but good luck with him if you feel the vibe.

[cavebird]

He definitely has potential. If he did this against an actual major league lineup, however, I would be more impressed.

[pitbull]

It is so early. How many time has a good performance or two gets that tease going and by June you wish you never heard of that player. What I do see is a kid who struggled big time last season to the tune of 6.02 ERA 1.51 Whip 1.69 HR/9. While his K were decent his FIP was still 4.91. Understood that he is only 25 and has to improve this season. Still see a very risky pitcher that if I was contending he would be on a very short lease.

[Teenwolf]

Another gem from Pivetta vs. the Reds tonight, outdueling Luis Castillo by a smidge.

7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 K... 103 pitches.

I've watched the last 2 games and thoroughly enjoyed Pivetta's work, his pitch mix and control have both seemed excellent. Especially given the reports that he was all fastball with lacking secondaries, I like what I'm seeing.

[whalewang]

Yeah, nice game against a stronger offense this time. Nice call Pivetta.

[scottw]

Pivetta may have the most pure "stuff" on the team. He lacks only consistency up to now. He does seem like he is "getting it".

[revo]

I might have to eat my words on this. He’s been awesome so far. Nice call.

[Ken]

I might have to eat my words on this. He’s been awesome so far. Nice call.

Definitely some regression coming but there's some interesting numbers to look at with Pivetta.

A few quick hits:

His FIP last year was 4.87, so he wasn't quite as bad as he looked with a > 6 ERA.

His 0.0 HR rate isn't sustainable.

Last year he had 5 games at AAA which were ridiculously good, and strangely mimic his stats so far this year. His Ks were up and his walks were down.

His walk rate this year matches that 5 game stint, but does not match any other period in his career. He's walking just 0.8/9. Last year in that 5 game stint he walked 0.6/9. In every other season in the minors he was around 3-4 BB/9 which is more normal.

So in summary I think he's pitching over his head right now, but oddly there is a small precedent for him being quite good even after some regression.

[chancellor]

I agree with Ken that there's some regression coming - shoot, he's at Scherzer value right now and he's not THAT good - but I agree there's more to like here than I expected. Some other quick hits:

- His average velocity is over 94 MPH. He's regularly able to dial it up over 95.
- He seems to be holding velocity deep into games.
- He's using his curve more and slider a bit less.
- His ball:strike ratio is very much improved over last year.

[revo]

Ok, I’m officially eating my words. He’s been really good, much better than I ever thought. Good call.

[revo]

And just like that, his ERA is approaching 5.00!

[pitbull]

And just like that, his ERA is approaching 5.00!

Still having problem keeping the ball in the park. His ERA WHIP been going up since beginning of June. 8 HR in the last 23 IP.