Lively vs. Peters

[Ryno84MVP]

11 team NL-only 4x4 league

Might seem like an odd question, but who would you prefer for this year...Ben Lively or Dillon Peters?

Obviously, expectations are low for both pitchers (fifth starter material) and I have concerns about both staying in their rotation because of other returning pitchers (Arrieta & Eickhoff in Philly and Straily & Chen in Miami).

I am working on a trade for Yu Darvish and need to include one of these two pitchers on my end.

[The Dane]

These two are on the same tier for me, so the differences are minor.

That said, I take Peters without reservation.

1) I think Lively has WAY more competition for his job. Straily and Chen are much weaker options than Arrieta and Eickhoff. If he pitches merely okay, there's a shot Peters stays in the rotation all year. Not so with Lively.

2) Here's the way I characterize these two: Lively is totally meh. No huge holes but nothing stands out. No strengths from which to build into anything more than a #5 that bounces up and down between MLB and AAA until the team gets tired of the ride and replaces him. If you can own him during his small windows of value, he's fine, but he's likely never going to be more than what he is. Peters is a different case. He has holes in his game, but his upside is higher. He could maybe be a weak #3 if everything came together for him. So, with Lively, you're gambling that his fiveness doesn't kill you until someone else comes to take his job. With Peters, you're gambling that his fiveness could bend into some fourness if he improves.

3) Short-guy bias. This is totally my own meat-head analysis here, but I tend to think that shorter guys work harder to make up skills deficits than taller guys. Peters is a little guy and I think that slightly improves the likelihood that he figures out some more command and takes his game to a higher level. (Although, granted, still not THAT high of a level.)

So, I go with Peters, but would not be surprised if Lively is worth more at the end of the season.

[Moonlight J]

as much as I like Lively (UCF guy), Dane makes too much sense

[harmon]

Dane....that's the type of analytics I like. ☺️

[Ryno84MVP]

Dane....that's the type of analytics I like. ☺️

Agreed, waaaaaaay above and beyond, thanks Dane.

[mgwiz22]

Peters should remain in the rotation because the Marlins don't have many options. When Straily is healthy he will be the no. 1 or 2 starter. Chen can't be relied upon at this point but if healthy he would also be a starter. This doesn't really effect Peters as he would start before Despaigne or whoever else might be available.

[scottw]

These two are on the same tier for me, so the differences are minor.

That said, I take Peters without reservation.

1) I think Lively has WAY more competition for his job. Straily and Chen are much weaker options than Arrieta and Eickhoff. If he pitches merely okay, there's a shot Peters stays in the rotation all year. Not so with Lively.

2) Here's the way I characterize these two: Lively is totally meh. No huge holes but nothing stands out. No strengths from which to build into anything more than a #5 that bounces up and down between MLB and AAA until the team gets tired of the ride and replaces him. If you can own him during his small windows of value, he's fine, but he's likely never going to be more than what he is. Peters is a different case. He has holes in his game, but his upside is higher. He could maybe be a weak #3 if everything came together for him. So, with Lively, you're gambling that his fiveness doesn't kill you until someone else comes to take his job. With Peters, you're gambling that his fiveness could bend into some fourness if he improves.

3) Short-guy bias. This is totally my own meat-head analysis here, but I tend to think that shorter guys work harder to make up skills deficits than taller guys. Peters is a little guy and I think that slightly improves the likelihood that he figures out some more command and takes his game to a higher level. (Although, granted, still not THAT high of a level.)

So, I go with Peters, but would not be surprised if Lively is worth more at the end of the season.

So, watching Dilly Peters in today's Phillies game. He went over 50 pitches in the first inning. Gave up not just one, but two grand slams. Velocity was low 90's, nothing moved very much. Yes, it was cold and that undoubtedly had an effect on both SP's. Velasquez has 77 pitches through 4, including 53 through the second, so pitching is not being helped by this cold weather.
PITCHERS IP H R ER BB K HR PC-ST ERA
D. Peters 2.2 9 9 9 3 3 2 84-52 9.35

PITCHERS IP H R ER BB K HR PC-ST ERA
V. Velasquez 4.0 4 1 1 1 5 0 77-47 6.75

Peters looked as bad as the box shows.

[Gregg]

So, watching Dilly Peters in today's Phillies game. He went over 50 pitches in the first inning. Gave up not just one, but two grand slams. Velocity was low 90's, nothing moved very much. Yes, it was cold and that undoubtedly had an effect on both SP's. Velasquez has 77 pitches through 4, including 53 through the second, so pitching is not being helped by this cold weather.
PITCHERS IP H R ER BB K HR PC-ST ERA
D. Peters 2.2 9 9 9 3 3 2 84-52 9.35

PITCHERS IP H R ER BB K HR PC-ST ERA
V. Velasquez 4.0 4 1 1 1 5 0 77-47 6.75

Peters looked as bad as the box shows.

Peters only cost me 12 bucks of my faab. Ya hoo.

[Gregg]

9 earned runs on 84 pitches...who does that?

This the game after blanking the Cubs... what the heck?

[scottw]

PITCHERS IP H R ER BB K HR PC-ST ERA
D. Peters (L, 1-1) 2.2 9 9 9 3 3 2 84-52 9.35
J. Turner 1.0 6 8 8 3 1 1 46-25 15.88
C. O'Grady 1.1 0 0 0 0 3 0 25-19 1.93
T. Guerrero 1.0 4 2 2 0 1 0 20-13 10.13
J. Tazawa 1.0 1 1 1 0 2 1 17-12 1.59
B. Holaday 1.0 0 0 0 0 1 0 8-6 0.00
TEAM 8.0 20 20 20 6 11 4 200-127

Here's the box for Miami pitching. Miami hitting went 5 hits, only a single in the 9th after the 2nd inning.
Velasquez settled down in the 3rd [11 pitches] and just threw strikes, mixed it up, just did what he is capable of doing when he relaxes. Unfortunately, he is super-hyper most starts.
Miami's best inning was the 8th, when catcher/pitcher Holiday mowed 'em down 3 straight, striking out Hoskins, who couldn't stop grinning. He got it up there 73 on his best pitch. Fun game!

[scottw]

As an aside, it looks like Starlin Castro has already packed it in for the year. Rarely have I see such shoddy, listless play at 2B, with 5-6 balls going under his glove with a pathetic, ho-hum swipe at it. Maybe it's just this game, but I am happy I wasn't able to get him in our auction.

[Moonlight J]

As an aside, it looks like Starlin Castro has already packed it in for the year. Rarely have I see such shoddy, listless play at 2B, with 5-6 balls going under his glove with a pathetic, ho-hum swipe at it. Maybe it's just this game, but I am happy I wasn't able to get him in our auction.

Those were horrendous efforts at those baseballs last night. He even makes Derek Jeter look rangy

[Gregg]

He wants to be traded.

[Hornsby]

He wants to be traded.

That's certainly not going to get anyone to want HIM though. He's a pig...

[Gregg]

That's certainly not going to get anyone to want HIM though. He's a pig...

That is what they said about Sheffield when he was with Milwaukee.