This year's NFBC adventure

[joncarlos]

I didn't get a chance to post a pick-by-pick recap as it was happening this year, but I did do the NFBC slow draft again this year. It's 15 teams, standard 5x5, 23-man lineups and 27 reserves. Draft and hold, so that's it. No trades, no FA pickups. What you get in March is what you get.

The KDS gods weren't all that kind to me and I drew the 13th pick. I wanted 12th (Trout, Altuve, Turner, Arenado, Blackmon, Bryant, the big 4 pitchers, Betts, Correa). But it ended up working out OK anyway. I really like Blackmon and would have picked him pretty high if I had the chance.

Generally speaking, my approach was to load up on corners early, because I liked a lot of top end 3B/1B, and didn't like the lower end guys. Similiarly, I liked the lower end MIs plenty, but wasn't enamored with the top guys outside of the really big names. My 2017 draft was torpedoed by pitching and generally ugly early picks after the first 2 rounds (I went Bryant/Lindor, then Cueto, then Cespedes/Polanco, then Tanaka and Ken Giles, then Adam Eaton in round 8).

Round 1: Trout, Altuve, Arenado, Turner,Kershaw were the first 5. Then Betts. Caught a break when Stanton went 7. Another when Goldy went 8. Sale went 9, Correa 10. Gary Sanchez (!) went 11th and Blackmon 12th. So then I had pick 13 and 18, and Scherzer/Kluber were still on the board. I didn't have faith that either would make it back to 18 so my pick was settled - I took Scherzer.

Round 2

Harper, Votto, Freeman and Kluber went around the turn, leaving me either Bryant or Lindor. Having scouted the CI situation above I made the tough call to go with Bryant over Lindor. I really like Bryant this year - his BB% is rising and his IFFB% is falling - I just need him to actually rack up the counting stats.

Rounds 3-4

Kimbrel went the pick before me (3.12) and I would have considered him. I decided to double-tap pitching instead and took Greinke in round 3, narrowly choosing him over Verlander. Humidor and WHIP and all that. For round 4, I really didn't have a player I loved. I thought about taking Encarnacion given my feelings on CI. I thought about taking Rendon or Dozier. Finally I panicked and took Wilson Contreras, a pick that I think I hate in retrospect. I thought long and hard about triple-tapping aces and going Darvish. I think I would have been happier with any of E5/Dozier/Darvish/Verlander here.

Rounds 5-6

I took Lorenzo Cain in round 5 - a bit of a reach, but I needed speed and runs, and he gives me both with a good AVG. If he's healthy. Knock on wood. Followed him up with Ken Giles in round 6. I thought about Cody Allen instead and probably should have done that. Also thought about Travis Shaw.

Rounds 7-8

Shaw made it back to me at 7.13 so I snagged him. I grabbed Andrew McCutchen in round 8. I can't help it - I love the guy. I think he's Cain lite - .280, 20ish HRs, 10ish steals, 90ish runs. Despite getting almost no speed in rounds 1-4, I was now feeling OK about steals. Not great, but OK.

Rounds 9-12

Ah, the good old days when Greg Bird and Jeff Samardjzia were healthy, and visions of .240-35hr and 200 solid innings of SP work danced in my head. I took Bird at 9.13 and Sharky at 10.02. I took Delino Deshields in round 11. Ah the days when you could get Delino at pick 163 and it was a reach. Then I grabbed Archie Bradley in round 12.


I won't go round by round, here's the rest of the squad and what the lineup looks like right now. I took Ervin Santana after he was injured, but I am thinking 4.5 good months is still worth having. I definitely wanted a 1B-eligible guy in my UT spot in case of Bird issues. I reached for Robles back when Eaton hadn't played in a spring game yet and Taylor was injured. The whole Nats team seems injury prone so I think I can still get .280 and 25 steals from Robles if I need them. I might just need ABs from him though.

I tried hard to draft a lot of good MRs as I didn't have enough last year, and sometimes you just need a MR to fill in. And looking at my current pitching injuries I need a lot of them.

Catcher - Contreras (4) and Barnhart (22) ... Maldanado (31) and John Hicks (41-not C eligible yet)

Corners - Yonder Alonso (17), Bryant (2) and Shaw (7) ... Bird (10), Adrian Gonzalez (33), Brian Anderson (35)

Middles - Cesar Hernandez (14), Zach Cozart (16), Brandon Crawford (19) ... Neil Walker (26), Chad Pinder (28 ), Utley (46)

Outfield and UT Cain (5), Cutch (8), Deshields (11), Choo (20), Granderson (29) and Derek Fisher (24) ... Robles (15), Toles (37), Kyle Tucker (40)

Starting Pitchers - Scherzer (1), Greinke (3), Michael Fulmer (13), Kyle Gibson (30), Tyler Mahle (27) .. Samardjzia (9), E Santana (18 ), Gohara (21), Biagini (34), Tropeano (36), AJ Cole (39), Hellickson (44), Martin Perez (48 ), Brian Johnson (50)

Relievers - Ken Giles (6), Archie Bradley (12), Boxberger (23), Yusmiero Petit (25) .. Swarzak (32), Daniel Hudson (37), Darren O'Day (42), Joe Smith (45), George Kontos (47), Ryan Tepera (49)


I really need big things from some of my primary bench guys - Neil Walker, Fisher/Tucker, Granderson and maybe Brian Anderson. Obviously a breakout from Robles or one of the Astros OFs would be huge. I'm hoping Tucker or Robles is up by mid-season so I tried to pick guys who would be likely to start early even if they don't play all year (Fisher, Toles, Utley, AGonz). I didn't get Hirano and I didn't get enough Giles handcuffs.

[mjl]

It looks decent, though I wish you'd gotten one more active outfielder. Toles isn't going to make the Opening Day roster is he? I guess you have a couple options for the UT slot if one OF gets hurt, but I don't think you have any players with multi-position flexibility other than Cozart after a few weeks and Pinder. Also as you said the bullpen is a bit suspect; Bradley's good but it would have been nice to get a more solid closer in round 12.

Your SPs and infield are great though. I mean, if you spend your first and third on SPs they should be, but I think the rest of your rotation is really solid as well.

[harmon]

You mentioned "panicking" for Contreras. Panic in a timing sense?

Was there a time limit imposed, if so how long? Or panicked as in if I don't get grab him here there's only going to be dogmeat left at C?

[joncarlos]

You mentioned "panicking" for Contreras. Panic in a timing sense?

Was there a time limit imposed, if so how long? Or panicked as in if I don't get grab him here there's only going to be dogmeat left at C?

A little of both. We had a 4 hour clock. I don't think I was up against it with only a minute left, but I didn't have enough time to plan out the next few rounds and what would happen in various scenarios. That's on me. I had planned to go closer/hitter in rounds 3-4 if either of Jansen/Kimbrel were there. but they weren't, and I was happy with Greinke instead but I couldn't decide on which hitter I liked. I had a plan (get CIs early) and a player that fit the plan (E5) but I didn't take him. I hadn't really expected Contreras to be there and hadn't really thought about what I would do if he was.

[joncarlos]

It looks decent, though I wish you'd gotten one more active outfielder. Toles isn't going to make the Opening Day roster is he? I guess you have a couple options for the UT slot if one OF gets hurt, but I don't think you have any players with multi-position flexibility other than Cozart after a few weeks and Pinder. Also as you said the bullpen is a bit suspect; Bradley's good but it would have been nice to get a more solid closer in round 12.

Your SPs and infield are great though. I mean, if you spend your first and third on SPs they should be, but I think the rest of your rotation is really solid as well.

Yeah, the lack of position flexibility is such a killer. I kept thinking I should get someone but they kept going earlier. My OF depth looks somewhat better if Neil Walker is starting at UT instead of Fisher or Grandy. I know everyone has injuries but already having 4 of my top 21 guys injured is very bad (and another one sent down). I hope Bird's foot thing is nothing serious but I'm very worried it is.

[Ken]

Hahahahahah dude I was in your draft. I'll let you guess who I am.
(Hint, we were chatting with each other on Friday without knowing it)

[Ken]

I'm not patient enough to wait for JC to guess.

Here was my team in the same auction:

Catcher - Zunino, Suzuki, bench: Sucre, Norris
Corners - Jose Ramirez, Abreu, Zimmerman, bench: McMahon, Camargo, Cuthbert,
Middles - Segura, Cano, Merrifield, bench: Forsythe, Barreto, Tatis
Outfield/UT - Buxton, Souza (ouch), Kepler, Pillar, Hicks, M. Taylor, bench: Eloy, Franchy, Rasmus, Gordon, L. Adams, Granite, Luplow
Starting Pitchers - Sale, Lester, Snell, Porcello, Cobb, Musgrove, Marquez, bench: Chacin, McHBugh, Richard, Triggs, Gsellman, Guerra, Bettis
Relievers - Colome, Miller, bench: Holland, Britton, Maurer, Watson, A. Wilson

Sale over Scherzer was one of the oddities. I could easily see it going the other way, but I like the younger pitcher very slightly more so I took Sale.

2017 stats and 2018 projections like this team, but that really only accounts for the active players, and in a 50 player draft like this with no FAAB or trades, the reserves are crucial. I could have done better in the reserves (especially backup catcher - yuck), but overall I like the combination of floor and upside that this team gives me.

[joncarlos]

I'm not patient enough to wait for JC to guess.

Here was my team in the same auction:

Catcher - Zunino, Suzuki, bench: Sucre, Norris
Corners - Jose Ramirez, Abreu, Zimmerman, bench: McMahon, Camargo, Cuthbert,
Middles - Segura, Cano, Merrifield, bench: Forsythe, Barreto, Tatis
Outfield/UT - Buxton, Souza (ouch), Kepler, Pillar, Hicks, M. Taylor, bench: Eloy, Franchy, Rasmus, Gordon, L. Adams, Granite, Luplow
Starting Pitchers - Sale, Lester, Snell, Porcello, Cobb, Musgrove, Marquez, bench: Chacin, McHBugh, Richard, Triggs, Gsellman, Guerra, Bettis
Relievers - Colome, Miller, bench: Holland, Britton, Maurer, Watson, A. Wilson

Sale over Scherzer was one of the oddities. I could easily see it going the other way, but I like the younger pitcher very slightly more so I took Sale.

2017 stats and 2018 projections like this team, but that really only accounts for the active players, and in a 50 player draft like this with no FAAB or trades, the reserves are crucial. I could have done better in the reserves (especially backup catcher - yuck), but overall I like the combination of floor and upside that this team gives me.

Your team is kind of my opposite. AL stud SP. Early middles. Early 1B. Not a ton of OF depth either. I was eyeing Rasmus forever.

[Ken]

Your team is kind of my opposite. AL stud SP. Early middles. Early 1B. Not a ton of OF depth either. I was eyeing Rasmus forever.

You grabbed several guys that I was eyeing as well at various points in the draft - Robles, Samardjzia, Gohara, Cole, Boxberger, and John Hicks were good gets for you that I was hoping to get around where you picked them up.

[Pauly]

How are you guys doing in draft champions?

I drafted two squads this year and one of them is doing quite well (the other not so much).
Today I cracked the top 50 overall

[Ken]

How are you guys doing in draft champions?

I drafted two squads this year and one of them is doing quite well (the other not so much).
Today I cracked the top 50 overall

Impressive!

He's 4th, I'm in 7th in the league so doesn't look like we are in play for the national contest. Was as high as ~300 at one point early on but haven't been close to that recently.

[Pauly]

Thanks man...Ive been very fortunate on the injury front (knocking on wood). I stand to make up quite a few standings points in the next week or two, as I have a sudden influx of closers (Bearclaw, Britton and Soria) where I was hanging on with 1 or 2 closers for most of the year. Fingers crossed!

[Pauly]

**Knocking on wood the whole time I write this**

So I enter the ASB with an 18 point lead in the league and currently sit at 37th overall, which is the highest Ive been. Super exciting. I have a very balanced team with pretty much an equal amount of overall standing points coming from pitching/hitting. Still feel like I need a few breaks to move up significantly higher (perhaps fallout from the trade deadline), but as long as I avoid major injury, this is looking like it will be a fun ride.

[joncarlos]

**Knocking on wood the whole time I write this**

So I enter the ASB with an 18 point lead in the league and currently sit at 37th overall, which is the highest Ive been. Super exciting. I have a very balanced team with pretty much an equal amount of overall standing points coming from pitching/hitting. Still feel like I need a few breaks to move up significantly higher (perhaps fallout from the trade deadline), but as long as I avoid major injury, this is looking like it will be a fun ride.

That's amazing. My team is currently in 5th in my league with 92.5. The leader has 120, 2nd has 109 and then 3rd/4th are 98.5 and 98 so I still have at least some chance of catching them.

The first place team has 69 out of 75 points on offense because their first 3 picks were Mookie, JDM and Benintendi. Yowzers. Outside of that, they're solid but underwhelming. Their pitching is a who's who of breakouts, with Clevinger, Newcomb, Flaherty, Romo, Buehler and Berrios. They're "only" 91st in the overall though.

My team is pulling off the amazing feat of being first in runs and last in HRs. With Bryant being pretty meh I have no offensive stars. Contreras, Choo, Shaw and Cain have carried my team thus far. I need Bryant to step it up and Kyle Tucker to hit right out of the gate. Greg Bird also needs to hit when I play him. Scherzer/Grienke have been great and so have Boxberger/Bradley, but Ken Giles was a disastrous pick. Fulmer and Sharky have been bad too. Thank goodness for Kyle Gibson. Maybe Ryan Tepera can get me a few more saves.

[Pauly]

Since I am looking at the overall NFBC Draft Champions standings every day...I have noticed that the majority of the top teams drafted late in the first round, which is interesting because many of the hands-down top 5 guys have stayed relatively healthy. I also flipped thru the other formats where there is faab, and the overall standings are dominated by middle and early pickers.

I am wondering if this is a trend that could work out for us next year, or if it is fluky. Perhaps in this format, two very good players later is better than 1 excellent player up front? That is probably a gross generalization, but it might be worth it to consider when you set up your KDS next season.

Here's a look at the current top 25 teams' draft positions in the draft champions format:
Pick 1 - 2
Pick 3 - 1
Pick 4 - 1
Pick 5 - 2
Pick 6 - 2
Pick 7 - 3
Pick 10 - 3
Pick 11 - 4
Pick 12 - 3
Pick 14 - 3
Pick 15 - 1

Thoughts? For the record, I had the 14th pick with my best team and took Kluber-Lindor at the top. Also for the record, I am currently in 13th overall while having been as high as 11th. Let's keep this train a rollin!