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Which seven to grab in expansion draft?

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  • Which seven to grab in expansion draft?

    I had to take last year off from my longtime league for personal reasons. I am back this year as an "expansion team." Before the auction, I have an "expansion draft" in which I can pluck up to 7 guys who were not kept. Who are the best values from the list below?

    This is an odd league in which there are 10 owners drafting from 16 MLB teams plus certain players not on those teams. It's basically the equivalent of a 17-team mixed league. We do not have contracts; to keep someone, you pay them 150% of the previous year's salary or $4, whichever is more expensive. We are 5x5 with OBP instead of AVG and SB minus CS instead of SB. We have a 21-man active roster and a 9-man bench; on the bench, there is no distinction between major and minor leaguers.

    Below are the best players available for reasonable prices. The seven currently at the top of my list are in bold. Do you agree?

    C Gattis $4
    C Y. Molina $4
    1B Bird $5
    1B Duda $4
    1B/3B Flores $4
    1B/2B/SS/OF Marwin Gonzalez $4
    1B Y. Gurriel $4
    1B C. Santana $23
    2B S. Castro $4
    2B Drury $5
    2B Kinsler $11
    2B Kipnis $7
    2B LeMahieu $11
    2B Odor $12
    2B/OF C. Taylor $4
    2B N. Walker $11
    2B Wong $4
    3B Andujar $4
    3B/OF Castellanos $16
    3B J.P. Crawford $4
    3B Rendon $11
    SS Andrus $23
    SS Bogaerts $18
    SS DeJong $4
    SS Rosario $4
    SS A. Russell $8
    SS G. Torres $4
    OF Altherr $4
    OF Brantley $7
    OF Conforto $5
    OF Dahl $4
    OF Desmond $12
    OF D. Fisher $4
    OF C. Frazier $4
    OF B. Hamilton $22
    OF Haniger $5
    OF O. Herrera $11
    OF Hicks $4
    OF Kepler $5
    OF Mazara $11
    OF Peralta $5
    OF G. Polanco $18
    OF Pollock $22
    OF Reddick $4
    OF Robles $4
    OF K. Tucker $4
    OF J. Upton $18
    OF N. Williams $4
    OF Yelich $22
    P A. Bradley $4
    P Buehler $4
    P Bundy $4
    P Claudio $4
    P Clevinger $4
    P Corbin $4
    P Darvish $8
    P W. Davis $11
    P Godley $4
    P S. Greene $4
    P Greinke $16
    P R. Hill $13
    P Keuchel $13
    P Lynn $4
    P C. Martinez $23
    P McCullers $11
    P Melancon $12
    P J. Montgomery $4
    P Paxton $16
    P Peacock $4
    P Porcello $5
    P Roark $5
    P Salazar $8
    P Stroman $12
    P Taillon $5
    P Wacha $4
    P T. Walker $6
    Last edited by Erik; 03-19-2018, 09:59 PM.
    Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
    We pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.

  • #2
    How did someone drop Darvish?

    I think you've picked the best available, but I'd take Greinke over Kuechel.
    If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
    - Terence McKenna

    Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

    How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

    Comment


    • #3
      I’m not on the Bird bandwagon. Gurriel at that price is a safer bet imo.

      Agree on Greinke over Keuchel all the way.

      In your league I would be tempted to find a way to keep Robles. He will be so cheap for so long. Find a way.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by DMT View Post
        How did someone drop Darvish?
        Skittish about age, health and bad playoff performance. He kept very cheap Correa, Fullmer, Weaver, I. Happ and Devers, which is understandable. He also kept K. Herrera and Brach, which, as cheap as they are, is much less understandable.
        Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
        We pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Sharky View Post
          I’m not on the Bird bandwagon. Gurriel at that price is a safer bet imo.

          Agree on Greinke over Keuchel all the way.

          In your league I would be tempted to find a way to keep Robles. He will be so cheap for so long. Find a way.
          Yea if you don't think you'll contend this year, I could definitely see keeping Robles over Bird.
          If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
          - Terence McKenna

          Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

          How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by DMT View Post
            Yea if you don't think you'll contend this year, I could definitely see keeping Robles over Bird.
            I'm more on the fence about DeJong than Bird, though all the best SS are kept so DeJong would be helpful for that reason. This is also an NY-centric league so Yankees tend to be major trading chips.

            The way this league's format is, you never start the year thinking you're not going to contend. There is always plenty of talent available in the auction. However, I had the chance to keep Trout at $4 going into what turned out to be his rookie year, and I didn't, and have regretted it ever since.
            Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
            We pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.

            Comment


            • #7
              Gurriel had hand surgery, so not sure I would consider him. But I would consider Haniger, Conforto or Marwin Gonzalez over Greg Bird if you’re unconvinced a breakout is forthcoming.

              Comment


              • #8
                I agree with surprisingly little of this, though I understand if there are non-obvious reasons to want Bird or DeJong. DeJong (and Taylor, see below) make me really nervous due to having pretty bad plate discipline numbers and very high BABIP last year. Taylor's better, but still scary.

                From https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/un...n/#more-104138 :

                I know it seems like players strike out all the time these days, but there were still just 18 qualified hitters who struck out in at least 25% of their plate appearances last season, and Taylor was one of them (to be fair, his rate was exactly 25.0%). Of those 17 other players, only five (Tim Anderson, Javier Baez, Tim Beckham, Byron Buxton, Adam Duvall) walked less frequently than Taylor (8.8%), and all but two of them (Anderson and Buxton) hit more homers than Taylor’s 21. Every single one of those 17 other 25%+ K-rate hitters hit for a lower batting average than Taylor’s .288.

                What I’m trying to say here is that Taylor doesn’t have the typical mediocre-AVG, high-power profile you expect from a guy who strikes out so much, and that’s troubling to me. If he maintains a 25% K-rate, his BABIP would only have to drop from last year’s .361 to around .320 to stick his AVG in the .250 range. I’m not saying it’ll happen, but I am pointing out that it wouldn’t take much.
                I would take Darvish, Greinke, Keuchel, Godley, Rendon, ... less sure about the last two. Robles and Conforto, I think.
                In the best of times, our days are numbered, anyway. And it would be a crime against Nature for any generation to take the world crisis so solemnly that it put off enjoying those things for which we were presumably designed in the first place, and which the gravest statesmen and the hoarsest politicians hope to make available to all men in the end: I mean the opportunity to do good work, to fall in love, to enjoy friends, to sit under trees, to read, to hit a ball and bounce the baby.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Robles all day long instead of Bird...power is relatively easy to find, speed is not. And Robles should bring you both...

                  You mentioned the Trout story...Robles might not be Trout, but he's going to be very good.
                  "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."
                  - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

                  "Your shitty future continues to offend me."
                  -Warren Ellis

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Darvish, Greinke, Taylor, Robles, Rendon, Conforto, DeJong.

                    I would love to be an expansion team with these. I would plan to contend and could still rebuild if it went that way after the auction.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Robles instead of Bird is likely now, you all are making strong cases for him.

                      Not really interested in Conforto -- I avoid Mets with weird injury issues.
                      Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
                      We pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I agree with Robles over Bird. Really, the only thing that would make me hesitant to pass on Bird is that the YS bandbox really suits him well. Just based on park-independent skill, though, it is an easy call.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Sour Masher View Post
                          I agree with Robles over Bird. Really, the only thing that would make me hesitant to pass on Bird is that the YS bandbox really suits him well. Just based on park-independent skill, though, it is an easy call.
                          What about Bird vs. DeJong? Both have the potential to be OBP suckholes. I like Bird's upside and home park more, but I like DeJong's position more.
                          Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
                          We pinch ran for Altuve specifically to screw over Mith's fantasy team.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Erik View Post
                            Robles instead of Bird is likely now, you all are making strong cases for him.

                            Not really interested in Conforto -- I avoid Mets with weird injury issues.
                            You will be sad that you didn't take a $5 Conforto by the All Star Break.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Erik View Post
                              What about Bird vs. DeJong? Both have the potential to be OBP suckholes. I like Bird's upside and home park more, but I like DeJong's position more.
                              From my post #10

                              Darvish, Greinke, Taylor, Robles, Rendon, Conforto, DeJong.

                              I would love to be an expansion team with these. I would plan to contend and could still rebuild if it went that way after the auction.

                              So yes, I choose DeJong over Bird.

                              Comment

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