Do you need a ace?

[cavebird]

I feel pretty good about both pitching staffs going in.

As well you should. I am going in with Hector Neris $11, with 6 SP and 4 RP slots to fill. Gulp. Three of the big four available, however, and about 2/3 of the tiers from about Strasburg to Tanaka available. The top three tier pitchers kept are: Sale, deGrom, Syndergaard, Severino, Ray, Verlander, Cole, Greinke, and Archer. While that sounds like a long list, it really isn't. I think there are about twice as many in those tier available. It is going to be a messy free-for-all. I just want to make sure it ends up as a three-for-me in good pitchers!

[Gregg]

As well you should. I am going in with Hector Neris $11, with 6 SP and 4 RP slots to fill. Gulp. Three of the big four available, however, and about 2/3 of the tiers from about Strasburg to Tanaka available. The top three tier pitchers kept are: Sale, deGrom, Syndergaard, Severino, Ray, Verlander, Cole, Greinke, and Archer. While that sounds like a long list, it really isn't. I think there are about twice as many in those tier available. It is going to be a messy free-for-all. I just want to make sure it ends up as a three-for-me in good pitchers!

What do you project the top three will go for?

[cavebird]

What do you project the top three will go for?

It is a $300 budget league. Sale was kept for $47. Kershaw has gone over $50 the last couple of years, but probably not much over $50 this year. I would guess that Kluber and Scherzer go for around $45-$50, certainly for $40.

[mgwiz22]

I think you can get by without an ace. It may boil down to a stars and scrubs vs. A spread the risk strategy. Of course you have to make the proper choices.

[swampdragon]

cant do stars and scrubs in a draft

I guess it comes down to this
kershaw/scherzer/ and lindor/rizzo/springer
or
strasburg/madbum and blackmon/bryant/goldschmidt

which set is better after 2 rounds

[Mithrandir]

It is a $300 budget league. Sale was kept for $47. Kershaw has gone over $50 the last couple of years, but probably not much over $50 this year. I would guess that Kluber and Scherzer go for around $45-$50, certainly for $40.

My league is also $300 and had 13 teams last year and Kershaw went for $84

[mgwiz22]

cant do stars and scrubs in a draft

I guess it comes down to this
kershaw/scherzer/ and lindor/rizzo/springer
or
strasburg/madbum and blackmon/bryant/goldschmidt

which set is better after 2 rounds

But you can draft all of your pitchers in the middle rounds so you don't have an ace but you have multiple decent pitchers and a strong offensive start. You end up with a Dr facto stars and scrubs offense.

[swampdragon]

But you can draft all of your pitchers in the middle rounds so you don't have an ace but you have multiple decent pitchers and a strong offensive start. You end up with a Dr facto stars and scrubs offense.

not really there are 4 keepers per team in this league and may middle round guys are grabbed up - keeper draft leagues dont work with stars and scrubs - but I didnt tell you we had keepers

for example - keeper pitchers
darvish, paxton, Ray, Nola, Keuchel, Quintana to name a few

[mgwiz22]

not really there are 4 keepers per team in this league and may middle round guys are grabbed up - keeper draft leagues dont work with stars and scrubs - but I didnt tell you we had keepers

for example - keeper pitchers
darvish, paxton, Ray, Nola, Keuchel, Quintana to name a few

You would have to adapt to what you already have taking into account what you know of the league.

[TS Garp]

This is an interesting discussion. I think the one thing that needs to be considered is that everyone's looking at last year's stats and thinking about how much better those 4 pitchers were than anyone else and automatically or subconsciously assuming the same will happen this year, when, in fact, that's highly unlikely.

Per the calculator at TG fantasy baseball, here are the top 4 starting pitchers in dollars earned for the last 4 years:

2017: Kluber, Scherzer, Sale, Kershaw
2016: Bumgarner, Scherzer, Lester, Hendricks
2015: Arrieta, Greinke, Kershaw, Keuchel
2014: Kershaw, Cueto, Felix Hernandez, Kluber
2013: Kershaw, Scherzer, Wainwright, Iwakuma

It seems unlikely that we'll see the same 4 pitchers out-earn the rest of the field this year. Would it be that shocking if Bumgarner or Carrasco or whomever out-earns Kluber or Sale? Or that one of those top 4 just have poor luck and end up winning 9 or 10 games (this happened to Kluber in 2015 when he won 9 games despite pitching well)? They seem as close to a sure thing as you could hope for, although that's what I thought when I took Justin Verlander in the 1st round in 2013 -- he was coming off these two seasons and was seemingly in his prime:

2011 24 wins, 2.40 era, 0.92 whip, 250 k's
2012 17 wins, 2.64 era, 1.05 whip, 239 k's

This was his line in 2013: 13 wins, 3.46 era, 1.31 whip, 217 k's.

I'm not saying there's anything wrong with taking a pitcher in the 1st and I could even end up doing it myself, but I don't think you can count on those top 4 repeating last year or a pitcher (or two) from the next tier jumping up to the elite. When you take a pitcher in the 1st round, you're leaving them no margin for error/regression. Since they're 4 category contributors, if they slip just a little (a slightly elevated hr/9 rate, worse defense behind them, more blown saves after they exit the game, plain old bad luck, etc), you've likely made an unwise pick. Maybe not a disastrous one, but one you'd like to have back. When you add in injury concerns with pitchers and the fact that taking a pitcher in the first sets off a domino affect that will leave you chasing offense the rest of the draft, it's a risky proposition.

Just my two cents.

[BigJonEmpire]

This is an interesting discussion. I think the one thing that needs to be considered is that everyone's looking at last year's stats and thinking about how much better those 4 pitchers were than anyone else and automatically or subconsciously assuming the same will happen this year, when, in fact, that's highly unlikely.

Per the calculator at TG fantasy baseball, here are the top 4 starting pitchers in dollars earned for the last 4 years:

2017: Kluber, Scherzer, Sale, Kershaw
2016: Bumgarner, Scherzer, Lester, Hendricks
2015: Arrieta, Greinke, Kershaw, Keuchel
2014: Kershaw, Cueto, Felix Hernandez, Kluber
2013: Kershaw, Scherzer, Wainwright, Iwakuma

It seems unlikely that we'll see the same 4 pitchers out-earn the rest of the field this year. Would it be that shocking if Bumgarner or Carrasco or whomever out-earns Kluber or Sale? Or that one of those top 4 just have poor luck and end up winning 9 or 10 games (this happened to Kluber in 2015 when he won 9 games despite pitching well)? They seem as close to a sure thing as you could hope for, although that's what I thought when I took Justin Verlander in the 1st round in 2013 -- he was coming off these two seasons and was seemingly in his prime:

2011 24 wins, 2.40 era, 0.92 whip, 250 k's
2012 17 wins, 2.64 era, 1.05 whip, 239 k's

This was his line in 2013: 13 wins, 3.46 era, 1.31 whip, 217 k's.

I'm not saying there's anything wrong with taking a pitcher in the 1st and I could even end up doing it myself, but I don't think you can count on those top 4 repeating last year or a pitcher (or two) from the next tier jumping up to the elite. When you take a pitcher in the 1st round, you're leaving them no margin for error/regression. Since they're 4 category contributors, if they slip just a little (a slightly elevated hr/9 rate, worse defense behind them, more blown saves after they exit the game, plain old bad luck, etc), you've likely made an unwise pick. Maybe not a disastrous one, but one you'd like to have back. When you add in injury concerns with pitchers and the fact that taking a pitcher in the first sets off a domino affect that will leave you chasing offense the rest of the draft, it's a risky proposition.

Just my two cents.

Great post!

[cavebird]

TS Carp---excellent post. That's why I am worried about overpaying for an "ace"---too many eggs in that basket.

Swampdragon--the second combo is far better to me.

Me: Still have no clue what to do. Shit.

[Mithrandir]

This was my non-closer staff after my auction last year:

Kershaw
Cobb
Estrada
Folty
Phelps
Ervin
M. Montgomery
Bauer

I won the league with that mess (excluding Kershaw). Now Ervin was phenomenal but the rest were nothing special. Of course I made some pickups and trades to bolster my staff. Doing the same thing this year...probably. I may go all in for another top 20 SP though.

[Hammer]

Here are CBS top 10 hitters from 2017

Blackmon
Stanton
Judge
Goldschmidt
Altuve
Arrenado
Votto
Ozuna
J Ramirez
J Upton


How many of them were first rounders going into 2017 drafts? 3?

[Hammer]

Here is one sites ADP for 2017

1 Mike Trout LAA CF 1.15 1 4
2 Mookie Betts Bos RF 2.78 1 8
3 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 3.54 1 10
4 Jose Altuve Hou 2B 4.72 1 10
5 Kris Bryant ChC 3B 5.09 1 11
6 Nolan Arenado Col 3B 5.70 2 11
7 Paul Goldschmidt Ari 1B 6.28 2 13
8 Manny Machado Bal 3B 8.64 4 14
9 Bryce Harper Was RF 9.07 2 15
10 Trea Turner Was SS 10.17 1 20
11 Josh Donaldson Tor 3B 12.41 8 21
12 Max Scherzer Was SP 13.30 3 27


of the 10 hitters, just Goldy, Arrenado and Altuve provided first round value. 30% isnt exactly stellar.