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Do you need a ace?

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  • #1

    Do you need a ace?

    I have a strategy question for a 12 team yahoo league rotisserie

    There are 4 pitchers available to draft that are clearly better than the rest
    Kershaw, Scherzer,Sale, Kluber
    then the next group is - Strasburg, Madbum, Syndergard, Degrom
    then drops to
    Greinke, Archer, CMartinez, (Darvish and Verlander are kept)

    Here is the dilemma -
    I draft 7th so I could grab any of those top 4 pitchers
    but if I pass I will not get a chance to grab one on the way back of the second round
    and it is too early to get anyone in that second group and they will be gone by the time it gets back to me in the third

    So - can I cobble together a strong enough staff with one of those Greinke/Archer/CMart as my ace

    I feel that this is one of the great philosophical questions of drafts

    also
    we have added a second utility player this year
    so we have
    c,1b,3b,ci,2b,ss,mi, 4 ofs and 2 utils
    and 9 pitchers
    Tags: None
  • #2
    I'd take a chance on humidor Grienke.

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    • #3
      I would take the ace if you believe that they are clearly better than the rest. Is one of the Big 4 and a 2nd and 3rd round hitter better than a 1st and 2nd round hitter and one of the 3rd group?
      "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

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      • #4
        I am making it a priority to get one of the big 4 this year in my redrafts. Tier 1-2 pitching is scarce and at the end of the drafts, the pitchers like hideous, while there sees to be a surplus of power. I grant you that power comes with low average and no speed. My point is I am going earlier than ever on arms I determine are difference-makers.
        After former Broncos quarterback Brian Griese sprained his ankle and said he was tripped on the stairs of his home by his golden retriever, Bella: “The dog stood up on his hind legs and gave him a push? You might want to get rid of that dog, or put him in the circus, one of the two.”

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        • #5
          This indeed seems to be one of the great questions this year. I'm in a snake draft for the first time in a long time, and am facing the same quandry. (BTW, I have learned that I absolutely suck at snake drafts, having finished last in every simulated draft I have done.)

          I have a fairly reliable auction plan I have used with success, but what is a legitimate draft plan? Clearly it isn't just to take the best player on the board. That will get you hammered.

          When do you need to grab SPs? Closers? Catchers?

          My guess is that you need to take that elite SP while you can. They are probably worth at least as much as the best hitter you would get at the seventh pick, and with the exception of Kershaw don't carry an inordinate amount of risk.
          If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them. - Karl Popper

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          • #6
            Yeah, I think any time you have a position where the top tier at that position is way better than the next tier, there is an advantage to taking someone in that top tier. Simply put, I believe each of the big 4 are more separated from the next tier of pitchers than the top tier of bats are from the next tier. For that reason, in a snake draft, once the most elite bats are gone (and for me that list might be as short as Trout and Altuve), then it is worth considering drafting one of the big 4 aces.

            I thought I was unusual in holding that view until I saw the LABR 15 team mixed draft results. In that draft, all four top aces went in the first round. I think Kershaw was a reach at 3, given his back issues, but the others went right around where I'd consider taking them (I personally would draft Kershaw last of the four, purely based on his injury risk, not talent, and it would be hard for me to take him in round one, again, just because of his risk of pitching 175 or less innings, not talent).

            https://rtsports.com/labr-mixed-draft
            Last edited by Sour Masher; 03-19-2018, 01:56 PM.

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            • #7
              You never know....one of those 2nd tier might be available, and if not there's not a huge dropoff to the 3rd tier. I wouldn't go for the 1st tier.

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              • #8
                I would never take a pitcher in the 1st round but I'm not sure that's still the right call. One of many reasons I only do auctions.
                If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
                - Terence McKenna

                Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

                How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by DMT View Post
                  I would never take a pitcher in the 1st round but I'm not sure that's still the right call. One of many reasons I only do auctions.
                  Do you pay top dollar for a stud pitcher in the auction?
                  "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Mithrandir View Post
                    Do you pay top dollar for a stud pitcher in the auction?
                    I do sometimes, but it's a different discussion draft vs auction. With a draft you know you are losing out on top hitters by taking a pitcher in R1, but with an auction you can allocate the $s from other areas - for example you may go cheap on closers to make up the difference.

                    In an auction you can "have your cake and eat it too" by taking an ace pitcher AND a top stud hitter, in a draft you have to choose between them.

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                    • #11
                      yep - we arent doing the draft vs auction discussion here

                      and there does not seem to be any kind of consensus yet here

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Ken View Post
                        I do sometimes, but it's a different discussion draft vs auction. With a draft you know you are losing out on top hitters by taking a pitcher in R1, but with an auction you can allocate the $s from other areas - for example you may go cheap on closers to make up the difference.

                        In an auction you can "have your cake and eat it too" by taking an ace pitcher AND a top stud hitter, in a draft you have to choose between them.
                        Exactly. I was just curious if DMT just didnt go for the stud pitchers at all.
                        "I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Mithrandir View Post
                          Do you pay top dollar for a stud pitcher in the auction?
                          Generally, no. The most I ever paid was $45 for Johan Santana in 2008 and I didn't finish in the money that year. I went extreme last year and didn't spend more than $4 on any pitcher. I finished 11th, yet my hitting was worse than my pitching!
                          If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
                          - Terence McKenna

                          Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)

                          How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            I hate paying for the stud pitchers at auction (or in the draft) because you are injury-risking your season. On the other hand, that does make it hard to put together a great staff, so it is tempting---it is so much easier to find bargain cheap pitchers to go with aces than it is to find a bunch of good mid-level pitchers. I have to figure out what the hell I am doing on this front by Saturday, and, honestly, I don't have a clue. I want to just say "I'll see the prices at auction and go where the value is," but that is so dangerous if the top few tiers all go for too much.

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              This year I am doing both. A couple of studs in the NL. Spreading it out in the AL.

                              NL keepers going into this Sunday's auction:

                              Stras 34B
                              deGrom 35X
                              Zach Davis 5x

                              I will be surprised if Kershaw, Scherzer do not go for $50 or more. Bumgarner and Darvish 40 or more.

                              In our AL the top pitchers back in auction are Archer, Keuchel, Tanaka, and Cole.

                              I am keeping:

                              Price-19B
                              Osuna 25x
                              McCullers 10x
                              Gausman 8x
                              Pomeranz 9B
                              Santana 7x

                              I feel pretty good about both pitching staffs going in.

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