auction inflation

[Art Vandelay]

I know we have threads on how to determine auction inflation but all my searches have come up empty.

Can someone link or even, perhaps, go over it one more time....?


Thanks

[Moonlight J]

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/how-to-account-for-keeper-inflation-in-your-auction-draft/

[Controller Jacobs]

I believe the sort version is (remaining money)/(remaining value)

Remaining money total should be same for everyone in the league.
Remaining value can be a little more work if you want it to be accurate (for example in 2-catcher leagues you want to include the remaining catchers and not more or less).

[chancellor]

I'm not sure if this is the official way, but here's how I do it:

In a 12-team auction with $260 per manager, there's $3120 available to spend. I use our league averages to determine hitting/pitching split, and my league comes out at very close to a 170/90 split, so there's $2040 available for hitting and $1080 available for pitching. You'll need a reference list of player values, whether it's from a vendor or your own generated figures. For 168 hitters (we're a 2 C league), my values should come out to $2040 to start, and for 108 pitchers, my values should come out to $1080 to start. Once you get all the keepers, subtract the kept value from your projected value. Sum that total for hitters and pitchers. We'll call that Sum(Hitters) and Sum(Pitchers).

Then total up your projected values minus the keepers projected values. Call that Proj(Hitters) and Proj(Pitchers). Sum(Hitters)/Proj(Hitters) * 100 should give you a read on your hitters inflation and Sum(Pitchers)/Proj(Pitchers) * 100 should give you a read on pitchers inflation.

I do them separately since I find in my league hitters inflation and pitchers inflation differs by a significant amount.

[Pauly]

fangraphs has an auction calculator if you input all the keepers it will calculate the inflation prices: www.fangraphs.com/auctiontool.aspx

[Judge Jude]

I tell owners to go about it in a non-mathematical way as well.

many leagues have inflation in the 20 percent range. unrelatedly but interestingly, that roughly parallels maximum prices an owner is comfortable paying players he covets. in such leagues, knowledge of inflation patterns is less urgent.

the critical piece to know is this: is your league typical?

mine is not, because we have up to 8 farmhand slots and those contracts only slide off 5-S2 the year after the player loses rookie eligibility. obviously, that raises inflation - because the top phenoms that pan out are cheaper than the 10-S2 in many leagues. I know of a league where the contract clock starts as soon as the prospect is chosen. that effectively dampens inflation there.

if in-season FA pickups are 1-S2,that's inflationary - especially if you allow a lot of keepers, which is another factor here. so is length of contracts, and the amount of cost increase to longterm guys.

if your league has 40 to 50 percent inflation and you don't know it, you will bow out of bidding on stars before you should. as a result, you will either overpay even worse late, or leave double digits of units on the table. that's where the biggest danger lies.

there are leagues where the overpays beyond inflation suck that inflation right off the table early. it's helpful to realize that, too.

[Controller Jacobs]

For PONY (15 team mixed, 10 keepers), I calculated inflation of ~ 41.67% inflation this year and last (the difference was literally ~ .01%)

[Redbirds Fan]

I know we have threads on how to determine auction inflation but all my searches have come up empty.

Can someone link or even, perhaps, go over it one more time....?


Thanks

Art,

Here's a link to an draft inflation article from 2011 which addresses several aspects of the issue. Some of it is basic stuff, but the author seems like a pretty nice guy.

http://www.advancedfantasybaseball.com/2011/03/#.WqyBFejwaM8

[BigJonEmpire]

More accurate link: http://www.advancedfantasybaseball.c...inflation.html