Ranking top 4 arms on downside

[Sour Masher]

I hate going into an auction with a good keeper list and a fluid plan---that is a recipe for disaster, but I so is the rigid plan.

Yeah, I agree. Last year, I went in with a pretty clear plan, and it went really well, and I won the title. This year, I have two wildly different plans, based on whether I commit massive funds to one of these big arms, and it is nerve racking. I guess the best thing to do is create two semi-flexible game plans. One where I land 4-5 from a list of 9-10 mid-tier guys, and one where I do land one of the elite arms, and then have a list of 9-10 lower end guys I can more realistically afford given, if I end up splurging one one of the studs.

I really wish I knew what these guys would go for, but projecting costs in my league for the most elite guys is always an imperfect science. My league mates are pretty disciplined/predictable in their bidding for most players, but when they do get crazy, it is on the very top end guys. I could easily see one or more of these guys going for just nutso money, if a couple of league mates both decide their whole auction hinges on getting one of them. It seems like every year in my league, the hitter and pitcher most people have determined are the best players available are the guys that get overbid by a hefty margin. I'm not sure if that will be the case this year, since there are three pretty even studs at SP available.

[madducks]

It's so tough. The big four get tossed first. Do you overspend or hope that you can get depth because the second tier will be cheaper? What will guys like Strasburg, Carrasco, and MadBum go for?

Probably $45+. But, i think Strasburg is going to be kept at $37. I'm keeping Darvish at $19.

[chancellor]

I think Max is the safest too. I guess I am having cold feet, because he did get a bit banged up last year, and there is a lot of chatter on this forum of late about guys in their mid-30s suddenly falling off a cliff health/performance wise. I'm not entirely sure why I think he is safer than Sale, as I can find no evidence that Sale's late season fade was injury related, and he looks great right now. As Ken said, Sale is the youngest of all of these guys, so maybe he is safer than Scherzer? Why not? I think I may think he isn't simply because I read for years when he was a pup that his mechanics would lead to TJ surgery. But I've got nothing besides that, and that seems to have been debunked by now.

Max is not showing any of the signs of falling dominance, and he has the most established track record of 200+IP and 250 Ks. His velocity is still great, movement and command unrivaled by anyone not named Kershaw, and has a strong team behind him.

All that said, in a 5x5 league, I still ranked Sale a bit above him. I'm going to disagree with Ken a little - his point about small sample size is valid, but there's no doubt the eye test and even comments Sale made indicated he was pretty gassed in September. But even with that, he still had dominant numbers and he's got 300 K upside.

I don't think you can go wrong with either. But whether you spend the extra couple bucks on one versus the other comes down to whether you want the more sure thing with really great numbers or the really sure thing with potentially even greater numbers.

[Gregg]

I suspect, but do not know, that Scherzer will go for more than Sale in my league, so maybe I should target Sale. Maybe the perception that Scherzer carries less risk than Sale is a fallacy I can take advantage of. IDK. If someone could guarantee me that one of these guys will pitch over 200 IPs in line with past production, I'd happily take any of them, and it fits my strategy to win to spend for one of these guys. It is scary, though, especially as an early favorite in the league, to commit so much capital to one player, one arm, especially. I really want one, but I really want one that will hold up as expected all year. But I guess that is impossible to really bank on, which is why I've never landed a pitcher of this caliber in one of our auction, because their prices are highly inflated. I may chicken out and spread my risk over some lesser players. I could overcome a couple of lesser players failing, but it would be tough to contend for a title if I invest heavily in one of these studs and he crashes.

We all have to guess right within our league circumstances.

In our 12 team AL only the new owner inherited a $45B Sale and a $37 Archer. He is not trading Sale before the auction and no one wants Archer at that price.

Here are the top ten pitchers we can buy at auction (in the order CBS has them):

Archer
Keuchel
Cole
Diaz
Clevinger- (unless I trade for him. He is $9 and done).
Richards
Hamels
Rodney
Happ
Porcello

Not such a good list. I have to cobble my staff and try to win my league with a patched up pitching staff and good offense.

In the NL only Kershaw, Scherzer, Bumgarner Darvish tons of money (not me) 2 will go over $50 and 2 will go over $40. I am keeping $35 Stras and $34 deGrom so I do not have to buy one of these top guys that I cannot afford. I don't have the 16-21 bucks to add to deGrom (if I dropped or traded him) to get Scherzer (my first choice) or Kershaw.

Ain't it a great game!!

[chancellor]

Gregg - What will Clevinger cost you? At that price, I'd be all over getting him unless it'd cost me an arm and leg.

[Gregg]

Gregg - What will Clevinger cost you? At that price, I'd be all over getting him unless it'd cost me an arm and leg.

I do not know. I am thinking 2nd round res pick (15th pick overall). He was not a keeper as an MR for $9 but that has changed. I am going to reach out to him now. We may meet up for a stogy later today.

[Gregg]

Gregg - What will Clevinger cost you? At that price, I'd be all over getting him unless it'd cost me an arm and leg.

He has decided it is in his best interests to keep Clevinger and trade him in season.

If I wanted to go into the auction with 40 bucks for 11 players I would trade him my 6th round pick for Archer and his 10th round pick. Just can't do it.

[Sour Masher]

In the auction now. Ended up with Scherzer. Sale went for the most, Max second, and Kershaw the least, as expected. Went pretty much broke landing Max and Rizzo within the first 2 minutes of the auction, but I'm happy. I hate watching some guys I want go cheap, but I had a great keeper list, and in a 14 team league, I can't go wrong landing two of the best available guys.