My NL-Only Keeper List - What Would You Do?

[senorsheep]

Our league: NL-only, 4x4 (BA/HR/RBI/SB - ERA/W/K/SV), 11 teams, $260 budget, auction-style keeper league.

Special considerations: We have a lot of elite corner power being dumped back into the auction this year; most elite starting pitchers will be off the board going in.

So... keep, cut, or extend? (Year 3 players in bold are eligible for long-term contract extensions at $5/additional year)

============

Starling Marte - OF - $31, Year 2
AJ Pollock - OF - $5, Year 3
Aaron Altherr - OF - $5, Year 3
Alex Dickerson - OF - $1, Year 2
Ian Desmond - 1B/OF - $18, Year 2
Travis Shaw - 3B - $11, Year 2
Joe Panik - 2B - $6, Year 3
Tucker Barnhart - C - $1, Year 3

Jon Gray - P - $10, Year 3
Brandon McCarthy - P - $4, Year 2
Brandon Woodruff - P - $5, Year 2
Dillon Peters - P - $5, Year 2
Dinelson Lamet - P - $2, Year 2

Corey Knebel - P - $1, Year 3
Mike Montgomery - P - $1, Year 2
Jacob Barnes - P - $2, Year 2

============

I should probably mention that we can cut players up through NL Opening Day, so "wait and see" is a valid option, too.

Thanks, guys!

[Hornsby]

How many can you keep?

Pollack, extend 2 years, Knebel, 2 years, Gray 1 year.

[senorsheep]

How many can you keep?

No limit on the keepers.

[Gregg]

How many can you keep?

First blush, I give Pollock 2 years and Knebel 1 year. No other raises.

[revo]

Starling Marte - OF - $31, Year 2 -- KEEP
AJ Pollock - OF - $5, Year 3 -- KEEP, EXTEND 2 YEARS
Aaron Altherr - OF - $5, Year 3 -- KEEP
Alex Dickerson - OF - $1, Year 2 -- TOSS
Ian Desmond - 1B/OF - $18, Year 2 - -KEEP
Travis Shaw - 3B - $11, Year 2 -- KEEP
Joe Panik - 2B - $6, Year 3 - TOSS
Tucker Barnhart - C - $1, Year 3 - TOSS

Jon Gray - P - $10, Year 3 - KEEP
Brandon McCarthy - P - $4, Year 2 - TOSS
Brandon Woodruff - P - $5, Year 2 - KEEP
Dillon Peters - P - $5, Year 2 - TOSS
Dinelson Lamet - P - $2, Year 2 - KEEP

Corey Knebel - P - $1, Year 3 -- KEEP, EXTEND 1 YEAR
Mike Montgomery - P - $1, Year 2 -- KEEP
Jacob Barnes - P - $2, Year 2 -- TOSS

[pitbull]

Agree mostly with Revo but....

I would keep Panik and Barnhart both are slightly underpriced and neither will hurt you.

[Gregg]

If it is a 2 catcher league, I would absolutely keep Barnhart (no raise). He is the starter over Mesoraco and his ba will not hurt you.

[revo]

If it is a 2 catcher league, I would absolutely keep Barnhart (no raise). He is the starter over Mesoraco and his ba will not hurt you.

True, in a 2-catcher league he's a worthy keep. One catcher league I'd probably toss him.

[chancellor]

Starling Marte - OF - $31, Year 2 -- KEEP
AJ Pollock - OF - $5, Year 3 -- KEEP, EXTEND 2 YEARS
Aaron Altherr - OF - $5, Year 3 -- KEEP
Alex Dickerson - OF - $1, Year 2 -- TOSS
Ian Desmond - 1B/OF - $18, Year 2 - -KEEP
Travis Shaw - 3B - $11, Year 2 -- KEEP
Joe Panik - 2B - $6, Year 3 - KEEP
Tucker Barnhart - C - $1, Year 3 - KEEP (Assuming 2C league)

Jon Gray - P - $10, Year 3 - KEEP
Brandon McCarthy - P - $4, Year 2 - TOSS
Brandon Woodruff - P - $5, Year 2 - WAIT (If he doesn't get SP role out of camp, you can get him for $5 or less)
Dillon Peters - P - $5, Year 2 - TOSS
Dinelson Lamet - P - $2, Year 2 - KEEP

Corey Knebel - P - $1, Year 3 -- KEEP, EXTEND 2 YEARS
Mike Montgomery - P - $1, Year 2 -- KEEP
Jacob Barnes - P - $2, Year 2 -- TOSS

I used revo's format, but have some differences. I get not extending pitchers too far, and wouldn't argue much with a 1-year extension on Knebel, but he's cheap, Ks a ton, and looks frighteningly dominant. I think he'd still be a huge value at $11 for another couple years.

If you can wait as you noted, I'd definitely wait on Woodruff. If he gets the 4/5 SP role, keep him. He has legit K capability, and I think he's going to grow up in a hurry. If he's relegated to the pen, it'll likely be temporary, and you can get him for $5 or less. Also, the Brewers may well sign one more SP, especially if prices come down.

[scottw]

[QUOTE=senorsheep;297198]

Starling Marte - OF - $31, Year 2****************keep
AJ Pollock - OF - $5, Year 3**********keep, but I wouldn't go more than 1 year LTC--too many injuries for me
Aaron Altherr - OF - $5, Year 3*************worth $5, no LTC
Alex Dickerson - OF - $1, Year 2************cut
Ian Desmond - 1B/OF - $18, Year 2************keep
Travis Shaw - 3B - $11, Year 2****************keep
Joe Panik - 2B - $6, Year 3************cut
Tucker Barnhart - C - $1, Year 3*************2 catcher? Keep, good BA

Jon Gray - P - $10, Year 3*************keep, no LTC
Brandon McCarthy - P - $4, Year 2**********wait and see
Brandon Woodruff - P - $5, Year 2****************wait and see, prolly cut
Dillon Peters - P - $5, Year 2********same as above
Dinelson Lamet - P - $2, Year 2***************keep

Corey Knebel - P - $1, Year 3************hate LTC for pitchers, but I'd lock him up for $11.
Mike Montgomery - P - $1, Year 2***********not going to get a better $1 pitcher
Jacob Barnes - P - $2, Year 2***************cut

============Something to think about, though: If there is a lot of CI talent available, do you really want to take up the roster space on Desmond? You already have lots of OF, so he is infield likely.

[senorsheep]

Thanks for the feedback, everybody.

We are a 2-catcher league, and I am keeping Barnhart as my "$1 catcher who won't hurt you."

I'm a little surprised to see all the Marte love. After last year's turd sandwich, I figured the conventional wisdom would be to throw him back out there and reacquire for a discount, if possible.

[chancellor]

I'm a little surprised to see all the Marte love. After last year's turd sandwich, I figured the conventional wisdom would be to throw him back out there and reacquire for a discount, if possible.

I hear you, but premium speed is soooooo limited in the NL. Two of the top ten speed guys could well be part time players - Villar and Peraza - another two are rookies with high upside, but still risky - Acuna and Albies - and another top 10 to 12 guy is having knee trouble and is on the Mets in Rosario. Even if Marte is good for only about 10 HR, his 30-40 SBs hitting in a premium position in the Pirates lineup is really valuable.

[harmon]

Desmond at 18 with lots available at the corners is questionable.

[senorsheep]

Desmond at 18 with lots available at the corners is questionable.

I hear you. My thinking: His dual positional eligibility gives me a backup option in the auction. If I can grab my first base power-and-production stud for a reasonable price, great, I can bump Desmond to the outfield. But if the bidding for the elite corner guys spins out of control, I can abandon Plan A, slot Desmond in at 1B, let the other owners blow their budgets on the Goldschmidt-Rizzo- Freeman-Votto bloodbath, and find HR/RBI value elsewhere.

I should probably also mention that I'm counting on a big Desmond rebound this year. His struggles last year were directly related to the broken hand and the calf injury. He's healed now, and history suggests he should be durable going forward. Coors Field plays to his strengths; I think the only thing that can stop him from 20+/20+ this year is the crowded outfield situation in Colorado.

[harmon]

I hear you. My thinking: His dual positional eligibility gives me a backup option in the auction. If I can grab my first base power-and-production stud for a reasonable price, great, I can bump Desmond to the outfield. But if the bidding for the elite corner guys spins out of control, I can abandon Plan A, slot Desmond in at 1B, let the other owners blow their budgets on the Goldschmidt-Rizzo- Freeman-Votto bloodbath, and find HR/RBI value elsewhere.

I should probably also mention that I'm counting on a big Desmond rebound this year. His struggles last year were directly related to the broken hand and the calf injury. He's healed now, and history suggests he should be durable going forward. Coors Field plays to his strengths; I think the only thing that can stop him from 20+/20+ this year is the crowded outfield situation in Colorado.

Good thought process. Also, if you have minimal game eligibility in season he might squeeze in a game or two at middle IF.