AL-only keeper list

[mjl]

My first year in an AL-only, and with a somewhat unbalanced roster. There are some very good teams so I don't have a problem with looking at this year as preparation for 2019, but I'm not sure how far to go with keeping prospects.

5x5 using AVG, 10 teams, normal roster (2 catcher). 17 man bench. Normal contract extension rules, minor league players don't count against auction budget until they lose rookie status.

Would you swap in either of the minor leaguers? I really like Fowler but not sure who to dump for him. On the other hand, I wouldn't mind keeping Porcello or one of the Royals outfielders.

Top eleven major leaguers:
Christian Vazquez $1B
Joey Gallo $12B
Jorge Polanco $9B
Xander Bogaerts $20X
Andrew Benintendi $5B
Nomar Mazara $5/option
Craig Kimbrel $24/option
Blake Parker $10B
Blake Snell $6B
Blake Treinen $5B
Justin Verlander $20X

Top seven minors:
Vladimir Guerrero $10
Jo Adell $7
Michael Chavis $5
Anthony Alford $5
Jesus Sanchez (TB) $5
Franklin Perez $5
Forrest Whitley $5

Other major league options:
Matt Duffy $3B
Jorge Bonifacio $5B
Jorge Soler $5B
Rick Porcello $2/option
Dellin Betances $8B
Chris Devenski $5/option

Other minor league options:
Christin Stewart $5
Dustin Fowler $5

[chancellor]

I'd change out Fowler for Franklin Perez. If you have time to wait, I'd keep an eye on Parker with the potential to change him out for Porcello, Devenski, or Bonifacio. I'll admit, I'd probably change him out for one of the three since I have no confidence in him keeping the job. I'd personally change him out for Bonifacio, but that further imbalances your hitting/pitching ratio. Alternatively, I'd change him out for Devenski.

For a 10-team AL only, that's a pretty good keeper list.

[Ken]

I think I'd be looking for ways to get Porcello in. The two fringe closers would probably be my first consideration. $2 Porcello > Parker/Trienen. I'd pick one of them and drop(/try to trade) the other.

[virgonomic]

I think I'd be looking for ways to get Porcello in. The two fringe closers would probably be my first consideration. $2 Porcello > Parker/Trienen. I'd pick one of them and drop(/try to trade) the other.

How much of a bounceback(?) are you expecting? He's been bad in years 1 and 3 in Boston.

[Ken]

How much of a bounceback(?) are you expecting? He's been bad in years 1 and 3 in Boston.

Bounceback? We're talking AL only, right?

Steamer and Depth Charts projections have him valued around $8 in the 10 team AL only format for 2018.

He'll give you plus numbers in Wins and Ks, and should provide average numbers for the format in ERA/WHIP.

[chancellor]

How much of a bounceback(?) are you expecting? He's been bad in years 1 and 3 in Boston.

I'm not as enthusiastic as Ken, but a drop to a low 4s ERA and a 1.3 WHIP is probably a fair expectation. He did have an unusually high BABIP last year. OTOH, I do not like that increasing fly ball rate - it's been climbing now for 3 years, and Fenway is not exactly a park I'm really enthused about a FB pitcher. I also think that given his performance last year, someone could get him back cheaply in a 10-team AL only.

[Ken]

I'm not as enthusiastic as Ken, but a drop to a low 4s ERA and a 1.3 WHIP is probably a fair expectation.

That sounds like you are exactly as enthusiastic. To me those numbers put him up in the $8 range in a 10 team AL Only.

I also think that given his performance last year, someone could get him back cheaply in a 10-team AL only.

This is a good point. So now we are talking perceived value vs actual value. If the Porcello name has been tarnished by poor results last year and you can get him cheaply then I agree with you here. I tend to focus more on the stats analysis than the perceived value analysis so I suspect you are correct.