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It’s baaaaaaack.
Well, at least in part. Given the Pitching Tiers discussion, I’ve focused on hitters on this piece. If time allows, I’ll take a crack at pitchers as well.
Again, I’ll quote revo on the purpose of this work:
My purpose here is to encourage discussion – if you see someone I’ve missed, please call him out. I've admittedly rushed this out in something barely better than draft form. If you don’t agree with where someone is or comments assigned to them, please say so.
With no further ado:
THE NO-BRAINERS
Starling Marte, PIT – Yes, speed is spelled with PED. And yes, I used that line last year with Dee Gordon. Power definitely diminished upon return; speed did not with 21 SBs/4 CS in 309 ABs. Has capability to hit .300; showed an improved ability to take a walk. Ignore nonsense about him being a 20/50 player, but .290-95-12-60-40 plays pretty well.
Adam Eaton, Wash – An OBP expert with decent speed, hopefully not diminished by the injury last year. Will hit 1 or 2 in lineup featuring Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper on a contract drive. Was on something like a 120 run pace last year.
Wilson Ramos, C, TB – Started very slowly, then around mid-August started to hit like we know Ramos can hit. Can deliver premium BA and solid power numbers from the catcher position, slow start combined with lack of PAs should make him a good value pick.
Adrian Beltre, 3B, Tex – Repeated injuries at his age are a concern, but was hitting .312-17-71 over 340 ABs last year. Power may be cheap this year, but not with that kind of BA if you’re in a BA league.
Jason Kipnis, 2B, CLE – Injured early and often, and even when he played, often played hurt. He’s only 31, hits in a potentially monster lineup, and if you’re a believer in ISO, still has 20+ HR power capability.
Yoenis Cespedis, OF, NYM – I realize that “Cespedis” probably means “pulled hamstring” in fantasy baseball language, but the hitting skills are too great to ignore. Taken in the 8th round in the 12-team FBG draft with Lord Zola and Paul Sporer and the 7th round in the 15-team mixed LABR draft, he’s a high-risk, high-return opportunity. And, yes, he's already dinged.
THE YOUNG GUNS – TOP TIER
Rhys Hoskins, 1B, PHI – Went gonzo in his brief time up in Philly. Has excellent minor league profile to support it. Love the BB:K ratio in the bigs and through the minors. Heard complaints about how he “hit the wall” in September; if a .392 OBP is hitting the wall, well, I want him. He’s not gonna come cheap though; he went mid-3rd round in the 15-team mixed LABR draft.
Ronald Acuna, OF, ATL – 5-tool production through minors with good on-base skills to top it off. Only 21 and hasn’t faced major league pitching yet, so there’s some risk, but I’m not sure there’s kryptonite out there strong enough to stop this Superman from helping your team in 2018 and certainly far beyond. Unsurprisingly, Atlanta sent him to AAA ball. Should be back in May after the Braves version of "Screw the Rookie" is done
Rafael Devers, 3B, BOST – Was putting up near-video game numbers in AA ball, so the Red Sox brought him directly to The Show, and Devers more than held his own, going .284-34-10-30-3 across 222 at bats.
Matt Chapman, 3B, OAK – The glove assures he’ll play almost every day in the real world. The power is why you get him on your fantasy team. The BA will likely hurt, barring a favorable BABIP.
Yoan Moncada, 2B, CWS – I believe he’ll play 3B this year, but I have him listed as a 2B for draft purposes. Struggled early in AAA ball, then went en fuego, was brought up and struggled in the bigs. There’s talent and upside with him, and he might just be seen as a post-hype guy.
Jeimer Candelario, 3B, DET – I’m stunned more are not excited about Candelario. Hit well in the Cubs minor league system, but was blocked by Kris Bryant. Dealt to Detroit, and he showed he can handle MLB pitching. He’s in about as good of a situation as you can get – he’ll need to be terribly bad to get benched by the Detroit Dumpster Fire, and gets to talk hitting daily with some guy named Miguel Cabrera.
Shohei Otani, UT, LAA – Depending on your league format, he may qualify only as a hitter, only as a pitcher, or both. Played through a gimp ankle last year that depressed his numbers. As I noted in the Pitching Tiers, I believe once the Angels realize what kind of talent they have here, they’ll ride him hard. And it’s pretty easy for me to believe that Otani is far, far better than CJ Cron.
THE YOUNG GUNS – UPSIDE BUT RISK
Matt Olson, 1B, OAK – If you blinked twice last year, you probably missed a Matt Olson home run. I really hope I’m wrong here, but there’s so many red flags (minor league profile against LHPs, ridiculous HR rate in Oakland, contact jump, K rate) that I have to put him on the riskier side simply because if you want him, his value will likely be highly inflated. Love him much more in an OBP league.
David Dahl, OF, COL – My warning from last year was: “Don’t go overboard here.” Same advice this year. He’s a health risk with an impressive minor league hitting pedigree and has seen some MLB pitching. Oh, and he hits in Colorado. Will likely start in AAA ball. Path to playing time much more difficult with CarGo signing.
Jorge Bonifacio, OF, KC – Don’t confuse him with Emilio. Can hit for power, deliver a passable average, and has some upside on BB rate. Best of all, he’s going to have a lot of rope for slumps given the state of KC’s OF. 80 day PED violation. Ugh.
Willie Calhoun, OF, TEX – Texas has appeared to commit to Calhoun this offseason rather than go find an OF from the free agent pool. Given that his only competition is Ryan Rua and Jurickson Profar, both of who have succeeded as well as the average Trump Tweet, I’m fairly confident Willie will get full-time or very close to full-time LF ABs in Texas. Showed prodigious power in the minors, but is only 5’8 and not overly big. What I do like is his K rate is low, walk rate pretty good, and he can run a bit. Texas sent him to AAA ball. Should be back in May after the Rangers version of "Screw the Rookie" is done
Ozzie Albies, 2B. ATL – Has good speed and decent power, good plate discipline for one his age, and didn’t seem at all overwhelmed in his debut in Atlanta. I can easily see a .270-70-10-60-20 line for him.
Colin Moran, 3B, PIT – I may be jumping the gun here, as he’s not guaranteed to start. I'm still not clear on the role Pittsburgh has for him.
Jorge Alfaro, C, PHI – Given the dearth of hitting at C, he’s an important name to keep in mind. Plate discipline is an issue, but there’s some real power there. Plus, the alternative is Cameron Rupp, so a likely worst case floor is half-time ABs with a lot of upside.
Albert Almora, OF, CHC – was platooned most of last year with John Jay, but hit RHPs pretty well in a clearly limited database. Given his defensive prowess, I expect he’ll see the lion’s share of PT in CF for the Cubbies, which translates to mid-teens HR, a .280ish BA, 65-70 runs and 75-80 RBI.
Dustin Fowler, OF, OAK – Lasted about 2 seconds in the big leagues before suffering one of the most gruesome injuries of the year. Likely candidate to hit leadoff and play CF for Oakland, he has a some power, decent speed profile. Was showing signs late in his minor league career of trading contact for power, I expect the A’s will discourage that from happening if he hits leadoff.
Ryan McMahon, 1B, COL – May qualify at 2B and 3B in some leagues. Jacked up power and contact rates last year in minors and showed enough plate discipline to have a .400+ OBP. Issue here will be playing time, so Spring Training observation will be critical. If the Rockies go with Desmond-Blackmon-Dahl in the OF, with Tapia and Parra as 4th and 5th OFs, then McMahon will likely slip in at 1B. Risk is that Tapia will play in LF and the Rockies will move Desmond to 1B. So, if you have McMahon in your minors, buy a David Dahl doll and start sticking pins in it. Just sayin’ Another young Colorado prospect likely hosed by the CarGo signing. Path to PT will likely be through one of: CarGo playing poorly and getting cut, CarGo getting hurt, or Desmond's ST struggles carrying over into the regular season. But I no longer see a starting role for him out of camp.
JP Crawford, SS, PHIL – I realize JP isn’t the second coming of Alex Rodriguez or anything, but the slagging he’s taking by a number of pundits should provide a buying opportunity for those in NL only leagues. The way he’s being universally panned should allow for an end-game buy with $5-8 value potential. And with his glove, it’s highly unlikely Philly will bench him.
Lewis Brinson, OF, MIA – He’s the most likely, IMO, to see major PT for the two OF positions open for the three of he, Braxton Lee, and Magneuris Sierra. That said, he comes with huge risk – he fared very poorly in Milwaukee during his first opportunity, looking overmatched in just about every way. However, he worked extremely hard during his demotion, improving his walk rate and cutting down on his strikeout rate. That said, he could be a lot like Keon Broxton last year – 20-20 with a really bad BA.
THE YOUNG GUNS – MORE ABs BUT I DON’T WANT THEM
JT Riddle, SS, MIA – It’s difficult to believe that Miami could find a SS with lower offensive upside than Adeiny Hechavarria, but they have. He can’t run, can’t hit for power, and can’t hit for average. As noted in the thread, may not even start for Miami
Daniel Robertson, 2B, TB – The only reason Tampa has giving Robertson plate appearances over Willy Adames is that they’re cheap bastages and want to make sure Adames is well and screwed relative to arbitration time.
Johan Camargo, 3B, ATL – Will likely see a significant amount of time at the hot corner. If Atlanta signs someone during ST, will still see a lot of super-utility time. Decent BA, but nothing else.
Jesse Winker, OF, CIN – 4th OF in Cincinnati. Good BA and OBP, but minors profile had neither speed nor power. Flashed a bit of power upon promotion. Hope that it baits your competition into spending on him.
Amed Rosario, SS, NYM – For this year, I don’t believe. There’s real speed here, but I think he’ll be heavily overpriced relative to value for 2018. Keeper/Ultra leagues, go get him.
Braxton Lee, OF, MIA – Longer term, he could be a good high contact/high OBP guy with great wheels who could be featured at the top of an order. If Miami brings him up this year, though, I think the results will be ugly. Not only does he not have an AB above AA ball, he’s shown absolutely no power, and has a terrible SB-CS rate.
Magneuris Sierra, OF, MIA – Despite limited time in higher minors, still had moderately successful debut. More power but less speed than Braxton Lee. Hamstring injury, not clear on how bad. Looked like he was going to AAA ball in any case
THE HURT LOCKER – GUYS THAT HAVE VALUE
Marcus Semien, SS, OAK – You pretty much know you’re signing up for a .250ish BA, 12-18 HR and 10-15 SB. Flashed more power in 2016, was showing more speed in 2017 before being hurt. Has legit 20-15 upside.
Greg Bird, 1B, NYY – A nasty ankle injury followed a nasty labrum injury in 2016. Upon return, his numbers look awful, but have some of the most strangely bad supporting metrics behind them. Has a good walk rate and highly legitimate power, and the numbers should depress his value notably. Lower value in BA leagues.
Kolton Wong, 2B, STL – Just a tad over our typical 350 AB level, I’m including him here due to his potential to greatly improve on counting stats. Job security is much higher this year. Has great speed and SB upside.
Evan Gattis, C, HOU – Key issue: still qualifies at catcher. Seemed to be hurt constantly last year – either out of lineup or playing hurt. Power crashed, though his BA was over .260 for the first time in a long time. He might not have 30 HR power, but .250-20-70 from a catcher who might be woefully undervalued could be great. He didn’t sneak by the experts too far in the 15-team mixed LABR draft (went 9th round).
Addison Russell, SS, CHC – .240ish BA with 20 HR upside. Even hitting 8th in the Cubs lineup will provide decent RBI chances.
Logan Forsythe, 2B, LAD – Not only was he hurt a lot, but he really stunk it up when he did play. Much more of an asset in OBP leagues, I still think he’ll be very motivated this year and will improve.
Yasmany Tomas, OF, ARI – I was a lot more motivated about the opportunity to get Tomas cheap before the humidor was approved. Now we have a guy whose value is defined by his power statistics placed in a position where his power statistics will be diminished by an uncertain amount. And now an overpriced 4th OF.
Martin Prado, 3B, MIA – Ugly 2017 season with leg injury after leg injury. Appears to be penciled in for LF in Miami, and given their lineup, will hit in a favorable spot. High BA, low power, and much diminished speed. But .295-70-10-65 appears realistic and could return a fair amount on an end-game bid in a NL only league.
Matt Duffy, 3B, TB - .270-60-10-60 with some upside in BA and maybe a bit on counting numbers if he’s hitting near a favorable spot.
THE HURT LOCKER – GUYS THAT WILL HURT YOU
Michael Brantley, OF, CLE – There’s still talent there, which is all the more frustrating. Maybe a move to 1B will get him over the 400 AB barrier again.
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, NYM – It took a long time, but age wins again. And that’s not a good thing.
JJ Hardy, SS, BAL – whatever residual value JJ had was sucked away by the announcement that Manny Machado will start the year at SS.
Brock Holt, 2B, BOS – Whatever residual value Holt had was sucked away by the Nunez signing this week.
Leonys Martin, OF, DET – Brilliant defender. Awful hitter. Your need for speed can not be anywhere near what damage he’ll wreak through your BA/OBP, power and counting numbers. And the worst part, is given how bad Detroit is, he’ll probably get a lot of plate appearances to further wreck your BA/OBP.
Devon Travis, 2B, TOR – Injuries triumph over talent in the Toronto middle infield. Plus there’s bad signs in the BB rate and contact rate. In fairness, looks good in ST.
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, TOR – Injuries triumph over talent in the Toronto middle infield. Didn’t you believe me the first time? Add age, and the decline in Tulo’s case is acute. Alredy injured.
Yangervis Solarte signed. Avoid.
Well, at least in part. Given the Pitching Tiers discussion, I’ve focused on hitters on this piece. If time allows, I’ll take a crack at pitchers as well.
Again, I’ll quote revo on the purpose of this work:
As we all know, it’s a challenge to predict which player will have a huge breakout season, but one way to help narrow it down is to take a look at which players should see a marked increase in playing time over the previous season. Unless you blindly hit the jackpot, it’s very tough to actually predict a breakout (except for rookies!) Even the most unwitting fantasy players land these breakouts every year because, quite frankly, someone has to, and it typically isn’t due to any sabermetric analysis.
It’s far easier to simply identify a player who will get much more playing time than he did last season or has been moved to a higher profile role, and then voila -- it will appear as if he broke out simply because he put up better numbers due to more at-bats or more important innings. Or what about those young players who once were considered “studly” but are now forgotten about after not producing at stud levels? You draft a handful of these guys, one or two of them work out, and then you look like a genius.
It’s far easier to simply identify a player who will get much more playing time than he did last season or has been moved to a higher profile role, and then voila -- it will appear as if he broke out simply because he put up better numbers due to more at-bats or more important innings. Or what about those young players who once were considered “studly” but are now forgotten about after not producing at stud levels? You draft a handful of these guys, one or two of them work out, and then you look like a genius.
With no further ado:
THE NO-BRAINERS
Starling Marte, PIT – Yes, speed is spelled with PED. And yes, I used that line last year with Dee Gordon. Power definitely diminished upon return; speed did not with 21 SBs/4 CS in 309 ABs. Has capability to hit .300; showed an improved ability to take a walk. Ignore nonsense about him being a 20/50 player, but .290-95-12-60-40 plays pretty well.
Adam Eaton, Wash – An OBP expert with decent speed, hopefully not diminished by the injury last year. Will hit 1 or 2 in lineup featuring Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper on a contract drive. Was on something like a 120 run pace last year.
Wilson Ramos, C, TB – Started very slowly, then around mid-August started to hit like we know Ramos can hit. Can deliver premium BA and solid power numbers from the catcher position, slow start combined with lack of PAs should make him a good value pick.
Adrian Beltre, 3B, Tex – Repeated injuries at his age are a concern, but was hitting .312-17-71 over 340 ABs last year. Power may be cheap this year, but not with that kind of BA if you’re in a BA league.
Jason Kipnis, 2B, CLE – Injured early and often, and even when he played, often played hurt. He’s only 31, hits in a potentially monster lineup, and if you’re a believer in ISO, still has 20+ HR power capability.
Yoenis Cespedis, OF, NYM – I realize that “Cespedis” probably means “pulled hamstring” in fantasy baseball language, but the hitting skills are too great to ignore. Taken in the 8th round in the 12-team FBG draft with Lord Zola and Paul Sporer and the 7th round in the 15-team mixed LABR draft, he’s a high-risk, high-return opportunity. And, yes, he's already dinged.
THE YOUNG GUNS – TOP TIER
Rhys Hoskins, 1B, PHI – Went gonzo in his brief time up in Philly. Has excellent minor league profile to support it. Love the BB:K ratio in the bigs and through the minors. Heard complaints about how he “hit the wall” in September; if a .392 OBP is hitting the wall, well, I want him. He’s not gonna come cheap though; he went mid-3rd round in the 15-team mixed LABR draft.
Ronald Acuna, OF, ATL – 5-tool production through minors with good on-base skills to top it off. Only 21 and hasn’t faced major league pitching yet, so there’s some risk, but I’m not sure there’s kryptonite out there strong enough to stop this Superman from helping your team in 2018 and certainly far beyond. Unsurprisingly, Atlanta sent him to AAA ball. Should be back in May after the Braves version of "Screw the Rookie" is done
Rafael Devers, 3B, BOST – Was putting up near-video game numbers in AA ball, so the Red Sox brought him directly to The Show, and Devers more than held his own, going .284-34-10-30-3 across 222 at bats.
Matt Chapman, 3B, OAK – The glove assures he’ll play almost every day in the real world. The power is why you get him on your fantasy team. The BA will likely hurt, barring a favorable BABIP.
Yoan Moncada, 2B, CWS – I believe he’ll play 3B this year, but I have him listed as a 2B for draft purposes. Struggled early in AAA ball, then went en fuego, was brought up and struggled in the bigs. There’s talent and upside with him, and he might just be seen as a post-hype guy.
Jeimer Candelario, 3B, DET – I’m stunned more are not excited about Candelario. Hit well in the Cubs minor league system, but was blocked by Kris Bryant. Dealt to Detroit, and he showed he can handle MLB pitching. He’s in about as good of a situation as you can get – he’ll need to be terribly bad to get benched by the Detroit Dumpster Fire, and gets to talk hitting daily with some guy named Miguel Cabrera.
Shohei Otani, UT, LAA – Depending on your league format, he may qualify only as a hitter, only as a pitcher, or both. Played through a gimp ankle last year that depressed his numbers. As I noted in the Pitching Tiers, I believe once the Angels realize what kind of talent they have here, they’ll ride him hard. And it’s pretty easy for me to believe that Otani is far, far better than CJ Cron.
THE YOUNG GUNS – UPSIDE BUT RISK
Matt Olson, 1B, OAK – If you blinked twice last year, you probably missed a Matt Olson home run. I really hope I’m wrong here, but there’s so many red flags (minor league profile against LHPs, ridiculous HR rate in Oakland, contact jump, K rate) that I have to put him on the riskier side simply because if you want him, his value will likely be highly inflated. Love him much more in an OBP league.
David Dahl, OF, COL – My warning from last year was: “Don’t go overboard here.” Same advice this year. He’s a health risk with an impressive minor league hitting pedigree and has seen some MLB pitching. Oh, and he hits in Colorado. Will likely start in AAA ball. Path to playing time much more difficult with CarGo signing.
Jorge Bonifacio, OF, KC – Don’t confuse him with Emilio. Can hit for power, deliver a passable average, and has some upside on BB rate. Best of all, he’s going to have a lot of rope for slumps given the state of KC’s OF. 80 day PED violation. Ugh.
Willie Calhoun, OF, TEX – Texas has appeared to commit to Calhoun this offseason rather than go find an OF from the free agent pool. Given that his only competition is Ryan Rua and Jurickson Profar, both of who have succeeded as well as the average Trump Tweet, I’m fairly confident Willie will get full-time or very close to full-time LF ABs in Texas. Showed prodigious power in the minors, but is only 5’8 and not overly big. What I do like is his K rate is low, walk rate pretty good, and he can run a bit. Texas sent him to AAA ball. Should be back in May after the Rangers version of "Screw the Rookie" is done
Ozzie Albies, 2B. ATL – Has good speed and decent power, good plate discipline for one his age, and didn’t seem at all overwhelmed in his debut in Atlanta. I can easily see a .270-70-10-60-20 line for him.
Colin Moran, 3B, PIT – I may be jumping the gun here, as he’s not guaranteed to start. I'm still not clear on the role Pittsburgh has for him.
Jorge Alfaro, C, PHI – Given the dearth of hitting at C, he’s an important name to keep in mind. Plate discipline is an issue, but there’s some real power there. Plus, the alternative is Cameron Rupp, so a likely worst case floor is half-time ABs with a lot of upside.
Albert Almora, OF, CHC – was platooned most of last year with John Jay, but hit RHPs pretty well in a clearly limited database. Given his defensive prowess, I expect he’ll see the lion’s share of PT in CF for the Cubbies, which translates to mid-teens HR, a .280ish BA, 65-70 runs and 75-80 RBI.
Dustin Fowler, OF, OAK – Lasted about 2 seconds in the big leagues before suffering one of the most gruesome injuries of the year. Likely candidate to hit leadoff and play CF for Oakland, he has a some power, decent speed profile. Was showing signs late in his minor league career of trading contact for power, I expect the A’s will discourage that from happening if he hits leadoff.
Ryan McMahon, 1B, COL – May qualify at 2B and 3B in some leagues. Jacked up power and contact rates last year in minors and showed enough plate discipline to have a .400+ OBP. Issue here will be playing time, so Spring Training observation will be critical. If the Rockies go with Desmond-Blackmon-Dahl in the OF, with Tapia and Parra as 4th and 5th OFs, then McMahon will likely slip in at 1B. Risk is that Tapia will play in LF and the Rockies will move Desmond to 1B. So, if you have McMahon in your minors, buy a David Dahl doll and start sticking pins in it. Just sayin’ Another young Colorado prospect likely hosed by the CarGo signing. Path to PT will likely be through one of: CarGo playing poorly and getting cut, CarGo getting hurt, or Desmond's ST struggles carrying over into the regular season. But I no longer see a starting role for him out of camp.
JP Crawford, SS, PHIL – I realize JP isn’t the second coming of Alex Rodriguez or anything, but the slagging he’s taking by a number of pundits should provide a buying opportunity for those in NL only leagues. The way he’s being universally panned should allow for an end-game buy with $5-8 value potential. And with his glove, it’s highly unlikely Philly will bench him.
Lewis Brinson, OF, MIA – He’s the most likely, IMO, to see major PT for the two OF positions open for the three of he, Braxton Lee, and Magneuris Sierra. That said, he comes with huge risk – he fared very poorly in Milwaukee during his first opportunity, looking overmatched in just about every way. However, he worked extremely hard during his demotion, improving his walk rate and cutting down on his strikeout rate. That said, he could be a lot like Keon Broxton last year – 20-20 with a really bad BA.
THE YOUNG GUNS – MORE ABs BUT I DON’T WANT THEM
JT Riddle, SS, MIA – It’s difficult to believe that Miami could find a SS with lower offensive upside than Adeiny Hechavarria, but they have. He can’t run, can’t hit for power, and can’t hit for average. As noted in the thread, may not even start for Miami
Daniel Robertson, 2B, TB – The only reason Tampa has giving Robertson plate appearances over Willy Adames is that they’re cheap bastages and want to make sure Adames is well and screwed relative to arbitration time.
Johan Camargo, 3B, ATL – Will likely see a significant amount of time at the hot corner. If Atlanta signs someone during ST, will still see a lot of super-utility time. Decent BA, but nothing else.
Jesse Winker, OF, CIN – 4th OF in Cincinnati. Good BA and OBP, but minors profile had neither speed nor power. Flashed a bit of power upon promotion. Hope that it baits your competition into spending on him.
Amed Rosario, SS, NYM – For this year, I don’t believe. There’s real speed here, but I think he’ll be heavily overpriced relative to value for 2018. Keeper/Ultra leagues, go get him.
Braxton Lee, OF, MIA – Longer term, he could be a good high contact/high OBP guy with great wheels who could be featured at the top of an order. If Miami brings him up this year, though, I think the results will be ugly. Not only does he not have an AB above AA ball, he’s shown absolutely no power, and has a terrible SB-CS rate.
Magneuris Sierra, OF, MIA – Despite limited time in higher minors, still had moderately successful debut. More power but less speed than Braxton Lee. Hamstring injury, not clear on how bad. Looked like he was going to AAA ball in any case
THE HURT LOCKER – GUYS THAT HAVE VALUE
Marcus Semien, SS, OAK – You pretty much know you’re signing up for a .250ish BA, 12-18 HR and 10-15 SB. Flashed more power in 2016, was showing more speed in 2017 before being hurt. Has legit 20-15 upside.
Greg Bird, 1B, NYY – A nasty ankle injury followed a nasty labrum injury in 2016. Upon return, his numbers look awful, but have some of the most strangely bad supporting metrics behind them. Has a good walk rate and highly legitimate power, and the numbers should depress his value notably. Lower value in BA leagues.
Kolton Wong, 2B, STL – Just a tad over our typical 350 AB level, I’m including him here due to his potential to greatly improve on counting stats. Job security is much higher this year. Has great speed and SB upside.
Evan Gattis, C, HOU – Key issue: still qualifies at catcher. Seemed to be hurt constantly last year – either out of lineup or playing hurt. Power crashed, though his BA was over .260 for the first time in a long time. He might not have 30 HR power, but .250-20-70 from a catcher who might be woefully undervalued could be great. He didn’t sneak by the experts too far in the 15-team mixed LABR draft (went 9th round).
Addison Russell, SS, CHC – .240ish BA with 20 HR upside. Even hitting 8th in the Cubs lineup will provide decent RBI chances.
Logan Forsythe, 2B, LAD – Not only was he hurt a lot, but he really stunk it up when he did play. Much more of an asset in OBP leagues, I still think he’ll be very motivated this year and will improve.
Yasmany Tomas, OF, ARI – I was a lot more motivated about the opportunity to get Tomas cheap before the humidor was approved. Now we have a guy whose value is defined by his power statistics placed in a position where his power statistics will be diminished by an uncertain amount. And now an overpriced 4th OF.
Martin Prado, 3B, MIA – Ugly 2017 season with leg injury after leg injury. Appears to be penciled in for LF in Miami, and given their lineup, will hit in a favorable spot. High BA, low power, and much diminished speed. But .295-70-10-65 appears realistic and could return a fair amount on an end-game bid in a NL only league.
Matt Duffy, 3B, TB - .270-60-10-60 with some upside in BA and maybe a bit on counting numbers if he’s hitting near a favorable spot.
THE HURT LOCKER – GUYS THAT WILL HURT YOU
Michael Brantley, OF, CLE – There’s still talent there, which is all the more frustrating. Maybe a move to 1B will get him over the 400 AB barrier again.
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, NYM – It took a long time, but age wins again. And that’s not a good thing.
JJ Hardy, SS, BAL – whatever residual value JJ had was sucked away by the announcement that Manny Machado will start the year at SS.
Brock Holt, 2B, BOS – Whatever residual value Holt had was sucked away by the Nunez signing this week.
Leonys Martin, OF, DET – Brilliant defender. Awful hitter. Your need for speed can not be anywhere near what damage he’ll wreak through your BA/OBP, power and counting numbers. And the worst part, is given how bad Detroit is, he’ll probably get a lot of plate appearances to further wreck your BA/OBP.
Devon Travis, 2B, TOR – Injuries triumph over talent in the Toronto middle infield. Plus there’s bad signs in the BB rate and contact rate. In fairness, looks good in ST.
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, TOR – Injuries triumph over talent in the Toronto middle infield. Didn’t you believe me the first time? Add age, and the decline in Tulo’s case is acute. Alredy injured.
Yangervis Solarte signed. Avoid.
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