2k18 Amed Rosario

[Gregg]

He was picked near the end of our reserve draft a few years ago and was stashed away. NL only 5x5 net steals and OBP.

He is $5 when activated or loses rookie status. He had 165 abs so he loses rookie status and is 5 bucks.

Short sample size, but his OBP was putrid and he got caught stealing 30% of the time. Still only 22 years old, he has time to right the ship.

What do you think of him for this year and moving forward?

[revo]

This is another case of a top prospect being left for dead after a bad start.

Last summer, "Why won't the Mets call up Amed Rosario?" was one of the top stories on sports radio, both local and satellite. Once he got called up and underwhelmed, the bandwagon broke down badly. That's what a 3-49 K/BB ratio will do.

This is a guy who hit .324 and .328 in his last two minor league campaigns, so I wouldn't just toss him aside. He has the full-time job, so at least there's that for this year. I wouldn't pencil him in for a .300+ BA, but he should be a nice low-end play who could surprise.

[Gregg]

Thanks revo, anyone else?

[umjewman]

Thanks revo, anyone else?

I think he will be a good one eventually, but I don't think he'll be that great in 2018.

[Sour Masher]

I've never been a fan of his from an offensive prospective, but I agree with Revo that he is a good speculative play. He has a lot of real baseball talent, and I expect him to be a good every day player for a long time, putting up solid numbers, and playing good defense at the second hardest position in baseball. His optimistic level of production at SS in the bad, lean days would have been very good, but these days with how deep SS is, I doubt he ever becomes a consistent top 10 SS. I see his ceiling as about what Andrelton Simmons did last year, and his floor at about what Swanson did last year, but with at least a few more steals than that. That ceiling ain't bad, by any means, and if you can get him late enough, he could be a bargain.

[BigJonEmpire]

Looking at his history he seems like the type to adjust quickly. At worst he should hit for a decent BA relative to the league but since he doesn't walk much his OBA will probably be middling at best. He's probably worth $5 for the 20-steal potential alone in an NL-only. I think he'll actually be a very good major league player in the long run and worth holding in the short-term.

[Ken]

I've never been a fan of his from an offensive prospective, but I agree with Revo that he is a good speculative play. He has a lot of real baseball talent, and I expect him to be a good every day player for a long time, putting up solid numbers, and playing good defense at the second hardest position in baseball. His optimistic level of production at SS in the bad, lean days would have been very good, but these days with how deep SS is, I doubt he ever becomes a consistent top 10 SS. I see his ceiling as about what Andrelton Simmons did last year, and his floor at about what Swanson did last year, but with at least a few more steals than that. That ceiling ain't bad, by any means, and if you can get him late enough, he could be a bargain.

This. He's a better real life player than a fantasy player. Marginal end of the draft value in mixed, obviously he has some NL only appeal, but not a star.

[cavebird]

I think he could be a fine asset both now and eventually so long as it is not an OBP league. He has a little power and better speed, and given the playing time he should get, he could easily run into a 12 HR, 30 SB season, which is plenty good, along with a batting average that doesn't hurt. Hell, even in his poor debut last year, he was on pace for 14/15 HR and 24/25 SB's.

[DMT]

This. He's a better real life player than a fantasy player.

Wasn't this the common wisdom on Lindor when he arrived?

[Ken]

Wasn't this the common wisdom on Lindor when he arrived?

Yes, it was.

I suspect Lindor is the exception rather than the rule. If we hope every defensive minded SS ends up as Lindor we're going to be very disappointed.

[Sour Masher]

Wasn't this the common wisdom on Lindor when he arrived?

It was, but I don't think it is a fair comparison. I had Lindor in the minors, and have him on a long term deal now. I had a hunch he would exceed projections based on seeing him play, seeing how the ball came off his bat, and seeing his general adaptiveness to the game. I think/fear a lot of Rosarios will get bid up over the next few years much in the same way that a lot of small scrappers got unfair Pedroia comps for awhile. Lindor was/is an exception to the rule, not a breaking of it. It is very rare for a player to exceed his offensive profile like Lindor did. It is possible, but very improbable.

[Ken]

Lindor was/is an exception to the rule, not a breaking of it.

Great minds and all...

[Sour Masher]

I think he could be a fine asset both now and eventually so long as it is not an OBP league. He has a little power and better speed, and given the playing time he should get, he could easily run into a 12 HR, 30 SB season, which is plenty good, along with a batting average that doesn't hurt. Hell, even in his poor debut last year, he was on pace for 14/15 HR and 24/25 SB's.

Unless he improves his base-running instincts a great deal, I don't think Rosario ever gets 30 SBs in the majors. I do think he is capable of 15/20 with solid BA. That is why I see Simmons 2017 as a realistic ceiling for Rosario.

[Sour Masher]

Great minds and all...

I definitely take it as a good sign of my positions being right when they align with yours. Puts me in good company.

[cavebird]

Unless he improves his base-running instincts a great deal, I don't think Rosario ever gets 30 SBs in the majors. I do think he is capable of 15/20 with solid BA. That is why I see Simmons 2017 as a realistic ceiling for Rosario.

I don't think that's instinctual. He definitely needs to learn how to read pitchers better. I would hope that teams could teach that---and hell, he's light years ahead of Acuna in that department already, lol.