NL blockbuster on the table

[Falcon]

Need opinions from trusted Pen advisors. Was just offered Marte and Vizcaino for Desmond, L. Castillo and R. Iglesias in my 10-team, NL-only dynasty league.

Would give me following keepsers: Goldy, Bellinger, Marte, Pollock, Story, Lamb, Ray, Nola, Cueto, Vizcaino.

Thoughts?

[Moonlight J]

I don't make that deal

[Gregg]

Me neither.

This is better:


Goldy, Bellinger, Desmond, Pollock, Story, Lamb, Ray, Nola, Cueto, L. Castillo and R. Iglesias


Than that:

Goldy, Bellinger, Marte, Pollock, Story, Lamb, Ray, Nola, Cueto, Vizcaino.

[harmon]

Defintely not, even if you took Desmond out.

[Sharky]

One more vote for no deal.

[Judge Jude]

"Marte and Vizcaino for Desmond, L. Castillo and R. Iglesias in my 10-team, NL-only dynasty league."

HQ projections for 2018

Marte 33
Vizcaino 17

Desmond 19
L Castillo 19
Iglesias 21

interesting - at first

Vizcaino is most likely to be irrelevant longterm in dynasty
HQ has Castillo with UP[side]: 3.25 ERA, 200 K
but Desmond is age 32

everybody loves Castillo as a sleeper (as if), and this deal doesn't really offer the premium

I do think Marte is the best player, even longterm, so that's alluring
I don't think it's an outrageous offer
Vizcaino is my big issue

[harmon]

"Marte and Vizcaino for Desmond, L. Castillo and R. Iglesias in my 10-team, NL-only dynasty league."

HQ projections for 2018

Marte 33
Vizcaino 17

Desmond 19
L Castillo 19
Iglesias 21

interesting - at first

Vizcaino is most likely to be irrelevant longterm in dynasty
HQ has Castillo with UP[side]: 3.25 ERA, 200 K
but Desmond is age 32

everybody loves Castillo as a sleeper (as if), and this deal doesn't really offer the premium

I do think Marte is the best player, even longterm, so that's alluring
I don't think it's an outrageous offer
Vizcaino is my big issue

Those prices seem about right except for Marte looking high. He will have to really rebound on a weak looking Pirates team to reach that value. Is HQ looking for a high SBs from Marte? What price do they have for Polanco?

[Judge Jude]

they have Polanco at $13 (down from $18 in the Forecaster in December)

36 proj SB for Marte, with a "longshot 20 HR, 50 SB"

I do think he's the best player in the trade, and that matters

[cavebird]

I think I agree with Judge Jude. To me, Vizcaino and Iglesias more or less balance out and Desmond is a small part. It is Marte for Castillo that is the heart of the trade. I know everyone loves Castillo right now, but Marte is a ton safer, and has some upside as well.

[harmon]

I think I agree with Judge Jude. To me, Vizcaino and Iglesias more or less balance out and Desmond is a small part. It is Marte for Castillo that is the heart of the trade. I know everyone loves Castillo right now, but Marte is a ton safer, and has some upside as well.

But....I think the key here is NL only Dynasty. Iglesias is a fair bit more desirable in dynasty than Viz. For 2018 Marte>Castillo, beyond that Castillo looks safer. Who knows what the Pirates are going to do; could easily see Marte being moved to AL over the next year or two and he's also a PED suspension risk and didn't look good in his comeback last year. Castillo has all the makings of an ace going forward.

[cavebird]

But....I think the key here is NL only Dynasty. Iglesias is a fair bit more desirable in dynasty than Viz. For 2018 Marte>Castillo, beyond that Castillo looks safer. Who knows what the Pirates are going to do; could easily see Marte being moved to AL over the next year or two and he's also a PED suspension risk and didn't look good in his comeback last year. Castillo has all the makings of an ace going forward.

Marte's PED suspension is an issue, but beyond that, I am not sure that I follow you. I am not sure why Iglesias is a fair bit more desirable in dynasty. True, he is two years further from free agency, but he is also a year older than Viz. The number or more or less similar given that Iglesias's highest comp. on B-R actually is Vizcaino. I just don't see enough difference here to move the needle. As for Castillo versus Marte, it is safety versus upside. If you think Castillo's going to be an ace, then obviously that is the side you want. However, last year was the first time he threw over 132 innings in a season, and pitchers are inherently more risky than hitters due to injury concerns. While I guess the Pirates could trade Marte, he is under an affordable contract for four more years, so I don't see a huge risk in the near future. I know people love Castillo around these parts, but assuming he'll become an ace is just to speculative for my tastes.